Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 250 PM...

CURRENT SHORT WAVE DRIVING PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAKER WAVES DOWNSTREAM COULD
MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. 850 MILLIBAR
TROUGH LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. AIR MASS REMAINS ABNORMALLY MOIST
WITH CAPE VERTICALLY THIN...BUT GREATEST SOUTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL NEAR ZERO.

LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 50 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS AFTER THAT...
DECLINING TO 30 PERCENT NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM...

850 MILLIBAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY IN SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
AROUND AN OFFSHORE HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST
THURSDAY AND AMPLE CLOUDINESS... EXPECT ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO
TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTION FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT... RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 30
PERCENT. LOW TEMPERATURES UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY...

WILL SEE GRADUAL DRYING AND A WARMING TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DEEP RIDGING BUILDS WEST OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.

ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT SHEAR AXIS WILL STILL BE
WRAPPED AROUND THE RIDGE...PRODUCING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE...50 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE HEAVY CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...
EXPECTING OUR LAST DAY OF HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S.

RIDGING WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH A
WARM...NOT HOT... AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE... WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY... EDGING UP TO THE VERY HIGH 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY...
AND IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGE OF AIR
MASS IS IN SIGHT... SO PERSISTENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70
TO 75 RANGE WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL CAP AND DAMPEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... WITH LARGELY DIURNAL CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE
DIURNAL POPS WILL BE GRADUATED HIGHER TOWARDS THE WEST WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD DRIFT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES SOME SLIGHT DEGREE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...

SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 64 WITH CONVECTION BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTHWEST OF RALEIGH.
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS WITH VFR VISIBILITIES OUTSIDE SHOWERS.
EXCEPT COVERAGE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT PERSISTING UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. CEILINGS
BECOMING VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS NEAR THAT TIME. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING MORE  SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BEGIN AN ALMOST DAILY DECLINE FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...

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