Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: THE MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWING AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GA
AND A FAIRLY SWIFT (FOR JULY) WNW FLOW TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST...
ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KTS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. AN 850 MB TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL NC... JUST EAST OF THE ANTICYCLONE CORE
BETWEEN BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA (A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE SW FROM 24 HRS
AGO)... AND TEMPS HERE REMAIN QUITE WARM AT 24-25C. AT THE
SURFACE... A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM VA ACROSS KY AND
CENTRAL IL TO SE IA... WITH THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC FRONT FURTHER
NORTH FROM MN ACROSS SRN MI AND NRN OH THROUGH PA/NYC... AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WRN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL
GA.

PRECIP CHANCES AND SEVERE RISK: WITH EVIDENCE OF A STRONG EML ON
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS... LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN IN THE VICINITY
AND UPSTREAM REMAIN RATHER HIGH... 6 C/KM AT 0-3 KM AND STEEPENING
RAPIDLY... AND LIKEWISE IN THE MID LEVELS AT 7.5-8.0... EXPECTED TO
RISE TOWARD 8.5 C/KM. MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -10C TO -15C AND
OVER 5000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THE 0C
TO -20C LAYER ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOISTEN WITH RISING PW... AND GIVEN
EXPECTATIONS OF VIGOROUS PARCEL ACCELERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
THE MIXED PHASE HAIL GROWTH ZONE (-10C TO -30C LAYER CAPE OVER 1500
J/KG) AND IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 25-40 KTS... THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS -- LIKELY BEGINNING AS DISCRETE HAIL-PRODUCING CELLS
BEFORE MORPHING INTO A QUASI-LINEAR SEVERE-WIND-DOMINANT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX (SUGGESTED BY THE DEEP AND STILL RATHER DRY MIXED LAYER ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FORWARD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT'S
MCS OVER SRN IN IS STRENGTHENING ANEW OVER THE KY/VA BORDER...
SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND THIS FEATURE IS
ON PACE TO REACH OUR CWA BY 1 PM. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS NOT YET MIXED OUT WITH ABUNDANT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS HIGH AND
THE INVERSION SHOULD BE QUICKLY BROKEN AS TEMPS (ALREADY IN THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90) STEADILY CLIMB. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WHICH INCLUDES THE MCV RESULTING FROM
THE IN MCS) AND INSTABILITY (BUOYED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT ARE
MUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY... BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE
OUTFLOW-AFFECTED TRIAD) SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SPREADING OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

REGARDING TEMPS... THE MORNING CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS MID CLOUDS HELPED
HOLD READINGS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT... AS DID THE SURGE IN DEW POINTS.
AS THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING... HEATING IS STRONG WITH
CURRENT TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE TEMPS AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY (THIS IS DUE IN PART TO THE WARMER LOWS HOWEVER).
WITH THICKNESSES CLOSE TO YESTERDAY... EXPECT READINGS TO CONTINUE
TO SOAR THROUGH THE 90S... ALTHOUGH THE INSTANCES OF 100+ READINGS
MAY NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CONVECTION FROM OUR NORTHWEST... AND WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE AND SEA-BREEZE CLOUDS. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE MORE THAN OFFSET BY THE HIGHER HUMIDITY TO CREATE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES... THUS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL
BE LEFT AS IS THROUGH EARLY EVENING... SINCE SUCCESSIVE DAYS OF THIS
KIND OF HEAT WITH SCANT LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHT HAVE BEEN SHOWN TO
EXACERBATE THE RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. HIGHS 98-104 AND
LOWS TONIGHT 71-77. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM ...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MID-UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE TAKES A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE WILL
SLOWLY ABATE AND THAT CENTRAL NC SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MONDAY STILL A GOOD 20-25M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN VICINITY OF THE CENTURY MARK.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 102
DEGREES NW AND 104-108 IN THE EAST-SE. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT MORNING INSOLATION.
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE BY MID DAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MAX HEATING. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST NOT
EXTENDING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING ANOTHER DAY AND INSTEAD GO WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE BULK OF CENTRAL NC (EXCLUDING THE NW
PIEDMONT).  IF CLOUDINESS LESS EXTENSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
CONVECTION APPEARS IT WILL NOT FIRE UNTIL 3 PM OR LATER...COULD SEE
A NEED FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE COMPARABLE TO THIS AFTERNOON AS
BULK SHEAR VECTORS 30-35KTS SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. PLUS
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OFF
THE 12Z GFS 2500-4000 J/KG. THIS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER HIGH DRIFTS WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD ESTABLISHING A NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SEWD IN THIS FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. MAY SEE
CONVECTION AT ANYTIME BASED ON ARRIVAL OF DISTURBANCES BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT THE EXTREME LEVELS
EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM...

THURSDAY...

STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS-MID MS VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN A NW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC THURSDAY WITH MINOR
PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW. THESE DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION...MOST
PROMINENT IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN 30-40
PERCENT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROJECTED TO BE GREATEST.
THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING ABOUT 10M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY EXTENDS EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED WARMING ALOFT WILL SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION SO WILL
DECREASE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES RESPOND...RETURNING TO AROUND 1440-1445M TERRITORY
BY THE WEEKEND. PLAN TO HAVE MID 90S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC BY
SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST -- A PATTERN FAVORABLE
FOR RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS TIME OF YEAR -- WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS IN THE HOT MID LEVEL
RIDGE...ENCOURAGED BY A TROUGH OFFSHORE THE PAC NW COAST THIS
MORNING...BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH PATTERNS SUGGEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO - IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. CONSENSUS H85 TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
20 SUGGESTS CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
92 TO 99 AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH DAY AND NIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...

GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC...IT MAY BE HARD FOR ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE
AIRMASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ALOFT...AND THE BEST PROBABILITY
OF ANY CONVECTION NEAR A TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST AT KGSO AND
KINT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  OTHERWISE..SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM KRDU EAST WHERE RAINFALL WAS MORE WIDESPREAD...AND A FEW
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

STRONG HEATING DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN AND
WHERE DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL TRIGGER
STORMS...BUT SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:

JULY 2 (MONDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1954)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 106 (1931)

ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:

RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988, 7/23/1952)

GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)

FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-076>078-088-089-030030-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HEAT INDICES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 103 TO 108 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-030030-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

NCZ073>075-083>086-030030-
STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH A MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HEAT INDICES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 103 TO 108 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
728 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW PINETOPS          35.84N  77.66W
07/01/2012                   EDGECOMBE          NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN AND BLOCKING THE ROAD ALONG RT 43 NEAR
            SOUTHWEST EDGECOMBE HIGH SCHOOL IN PINETOPS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200491

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW KINGSBORO          35.86N  77.72W
07/01/2012                   EDGECOMBE          NC   PUBLIC

            TREE BLOCKING FAITH BAPTIST CHRCH RD NEAR HWY 43.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200492

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
733 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E ROLESVILLE          35.92N  78.40W
07/01/2012                   WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            TREE UPROOTED AND BLOWN OVER ONTO A FENCE ON PULLEY
            TOWN RD. TREE WAS HEALTHY AND APPROX 6 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200493

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
736 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE KENLY             35.61N  78.08W
07/01/2012                   WILSON             NC   PUBLIC

            HEALTHY TREE APPROX 40 FT TALL UPROOTED AND BLOWN OVER
            NEAR HWY 581 AND NEWSOME MILL RD. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS
            ALSO REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200494

KC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
748 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCZ083>085-020115-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
748 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SCOTLAND...RICHMOND AND
ANSON COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 747 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF ELLERBE TO
14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORVEN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKINGHAM TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WADESBORO...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...HOFFMAN...
ROCKINGHAM... HOFFMAN... DOBBINS HEIGHTS... CAMP MACKALL...
HAMLET... WAGRAM... LAUREL HILL... AND LAURINBURG..

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 8032 3484 8033 3486 8032
      3493 8021 3518 7978 3518 7973 3511 7961
      3506 7957 3507 7953 3496 7936 3486 7934
      3482 7935 3477 7933 3463 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 303DEG 28KT 3505 7966 3477 8020

77

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