Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1001 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BRINGING NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM...

CURRENT LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 AND
WILL EXIT THE ARE BEFORE DAWN. WILL BE SLIGHTLY SLOW TO CLEAR
WATCH FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. DEWPOINTS TO PERHAPS PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER 40S LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 NORTH TO NEAR 67
SOUTHEAST.

BUILDING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL MAKE ABSOLUTELY DELIGHTFUL
CONDITIONS FOR LATE JUNE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID 40S RESULTING IN COMFORTABLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 20 METERS BELOW
NORMAL...SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 79 TO 83.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...

LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM DEBBY TAKES THE STORM
ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
STORM WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO INFLUENCE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE WITH WARM CORE RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST. STRONG CAPPING ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING...FROM NEAR NORMAL MID TO
UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW...PERHAPS MID 90S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...

THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY REMAINS IN QUESTION AND A TRACK
NEARER THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD PERHAPS PRODUCE SOME IMPACTS IN FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN THE LATE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FLATTENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTING CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
WITH HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND COPIOUS SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO APPROACH RECORD TRIPLE DIGITS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

RETROGRESSION WESTWARD OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEKEND WOULD TAKE THE
EDGE OFF THE HIGHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
MID 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOSS OF THE CAP WOULD ALSO PERMIT WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS
DETECTABLE AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE VIRGINIA BORDER WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTH. THE
RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST...
WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 4 AM. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 20 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. VFR
TUESDAY UNDER A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 10 MPH.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:

JUNE 29 (FRIDAY)--
RDU: 101 (1945)
GSO: 99 (1959)
FAY: 105 (1931)

JUNE 30 (SATURDAY)--
RDU: 102 (1959)
GSO: 101 (1959)
FAY: 101 (1959)

JULY 1 (SUNDAY)--
RDU: 99 (2005)
GSO: 98 (1954)
FAY: 104 (1959)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
CLIMATE...BADGETT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
548 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-078-262200-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-
WILSON-WAYNE-
548 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH 11 PM THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS DUE TO ABNORMALLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY...LONG RANGE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD
STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

NCZ007-021>025-038>040-073>077-083>086-088-089-262200-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
548 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH 11
PM THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS DUE TO ABNORMALLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY...LONG RANGE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD
STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

NCZ042-077-088-089-260345-
CUMBERLAND-HARNETT-JOHNSTON-SAMPSON-
1047 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SAMPSON...HARNETT...JOHNSTON
AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM EDT...

AT 1047 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LILLINGTON TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRINCETON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BENSON...
LILLINGTON...ERWIN...NEWTON GROVE...SPIVEY'S CORNER...LINDEN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 319 AND 355.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 49 AND 93.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 7896 3555 7894 3554 7875 3552 7872
      3553 7869 3549 7814 3545 7813 3542 7816
      3535 7816 3532 7828 3529 7830 3522 7824
      3520 7816 3503 7815 3499 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 333DEG 21KT 3549 7890 3540 7821

22

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