Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS.  THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEAR TERM UPDATES WILL BE
FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL.

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE TO 850MB WARM FRONT
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD
LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  STRATUS IS
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL NC...AND SKIES ARE NEARLY
CLEAR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC.  12Z RAOBS AT KGSO AND KMHX SHOW
A STRONG BUT EASILY BREAKABLE CAP ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SO RAP FORECASTS OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE SEEM
ATTAINABLE.  MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP GIVE 1000-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER EASTERN NC.  THE HRRR AND CAMS HAVE PERFORMED
POORLY WITH THE PRECIP THIS MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF CONVECTIVE IGNITION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LOW.
HOWEVER...THE CAP SHOULD BREAK BY NOON AND CLOUD STREETS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER THE SANDHILLS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO POP UP BY 18Z. ONE LAST
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF VA...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON.  WE WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THE HIGHER 80-90 POPS FROM EAST TO WEST
THIS EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILLED AND LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECASTS SHOW 35-40KT
BETWEEN THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH AND A WEAKER COMPONENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER SOUTHEAST GA/SC THIS
AFTERNOON.  SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN BACKED TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS
INDICATED WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY AS MIXING INCREASES THIS
MORNING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINEAR FORCING AND EXPECTED QLCS THIS
EVENING.  AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE THIS
EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET IF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
35-40KT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.  THE
CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A 10 PERCENT TORNADO
RISK NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND ROCKY MOUNT.

CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL QLCS THIS EVENING...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
MOST OF THE CAMS SUGGEST THE COLD POOL WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SURGING ACROSS THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AREA AFTER 21Z.  LARGE SCALE SHEAR PARAMETERS AND SIMULATED
UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES SUGGEST EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE.

WE WILL LEAVE FORECAST HIGHS AS THEY ARE SINCE THEY ARE ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AN
ISSUE.

TONIGHT...BAND OF CONVECTION CROSSES THEN PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT. FAVOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM-WRF MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE COOLER GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT....TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME ENSUES BEHIND
EXITING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW.
RESULTANT W-NW FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER MORE STABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL
NC. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW PASSING CLOUDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
THOUGH BULK OF COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP GENERATION. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. MAX TEMPS 75-80. MIN TEMPS
MID-UPPER 50S WITH A LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING A
RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK... WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST AND EAST
COAST... WITH A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. WITH THE EAST COAST MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED INVOF NEW ENGLAND/OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST... CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT... AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO DISTURANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME... WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. HOWEVER... THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THUS... WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THEN. GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GO WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL... WITH EVEN SOME PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/STORMS/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

CEILINGS ARE LIFTING TO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOUD COVER IS VARIABLE...SO PERIODS OF HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.  A STRONG STORMS SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
REGION TODAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE POPPED UP
SINCE 16Z NORTHEAST OF KRDU....AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 19-21Z.  WE EXPECT STORMS MOVING INTO THE
KCLT AREA AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL MERGE INTO A LINE OF STORMS AND
CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 19-02Z.  STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50-60MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST PARTS OF THE LINE...WITH IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS.  WE WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME THE MOST PROBABLY TIME
PERIOD OF STORMS WITH VCTS...WITH THE MOST ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AN HOUR OR LESS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE
LIMITED IF THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS WIDESPREAD.
NONETHELESS...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY CAUSE VFR CEILINGS MONDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS/SMITH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
122 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

NCZ039-074-011815-
MONTGOMERY-RANDOLPH-
122 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 122 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NEW HOPE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTH OF TROY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ULAH...ASHEBORO...
FRANKLINVILLE...AND...RAMSEUR...STALEY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3591 7974 3591 7972 3582 7954 3579 7954
      3542 7991 3553 8007 3554 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 220DEG 26KT 3555 7992

KRR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

NCZ011-028-011815-
EDGECOMBE-HALIFAX-
136 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE
COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 136 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ENFIELD...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF TARBORO...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ENFIELD...TILLERY...
HALIFAX.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3641 7754 3637 7754 3635 7758 3632 7757
      3631 7753 3633 7744 3629 7741 3627 7741
      3626 7739 3604 7752 3609 7770 3643 7760
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 200DEG 21KT 3610 7759

GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 W HALIFAX             36.32N  77.73W
06/01/2012                   HALIFAX            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING BOTH LANES OF ROAD AT TANNER ROAD
            AND JUSTICE BRANCH ROAD... TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200322

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
152 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW WELDON            36.42N  77.62W
06/01/2012                   HALIFAX            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING COUNTRY CLUB ROAD... TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200323

SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
152 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

NCZ022-038-039-011845-
DAVIDSON-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
152 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH...GUILFORD AND
DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GORDONTOWN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEXINGTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...THOMASVILLE...
TRINITY...ARCHDALE...PLEASANT GARDEN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8009 3602 8004 3606 8004 3625 7982
      3605 7955 3564 8014 3580 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 225DEG 22KT 3577 8008

KRR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

NCZ010-011-026-027-011845-
FRANKLIN-HALIFAX-NASH-WARREN-
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NASH...WARREN...HALIFAX AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 206 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTH OF CASTALIA...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...AVENTON...ARCOLA...
AIRLIE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 138 AND 160.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 7802 3625 7764 3590 7790 3599 7820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 207DEG 28KT 3604 7804

GIH