Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2012
Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC
NWS Raleigh, NC issued this special weather statement at May 1, 2012, 4:52 PM EDT for Forsyth County, North Carolina. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 1, 2012, 4:52 PM EDT (20:52 UTC)
- Expired
- May 1, 2012, 5:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 38 min
- Issued by
- NWS Raleigh, NC
County Forsyth County, NC
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 36 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 6 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -386 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1318 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 144 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 137 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 1, 4:40 PM EDT, 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 1, 4:40 PM EDT, 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BENEATH A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE...BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 219 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF CENTRAL NC...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9 PM.
MORNING FORECAST RATIONALE LITTLE CHANGED...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION INVOF THE VA BORDER...
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER WESTERN VA. CONVECTION HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUE RIDGE EAST SLOPES...AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD IN MEAN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO WEAKENING THIS EVENING.
THE FORMER DEVELOPMENT...INVOF THE VA BORDER...WILL POSE A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER OWING TO BOTH MODERATE INSTABILITY FUELED BY THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY...AND BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS
NEAR THE VA BORDER. HAIL AND WET MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
INCLUDING OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...AND DRY MID LEVEL
AIR AND ASSOCIATED HIGH DELTA THETA-E VALUES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ALSO INDICATE THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE AN
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. THE HWO WAS ALREADY UPDATED THIS
MORNING TO REFLECT THIS THINKING...AND A NEW ONE WITH THE WATCH
INFORMATION WILL BE OUT IN A FEW MINUTES.
TONIGHT: MUGGY AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...OR
GENERALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OF TUE MORNING OWING TO
ABOUT A 10 METER RISE IN FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER
OBSERVED 12Z TUE...IN AN OTHERWISE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC REGIME. DRY
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT...AFTER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WANES...THOUGH WEAKENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED S/W TROUGH MAY DRIFT TOWARD THE
FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WEDNESDAY: HOT AND HUMID FOR EARLY MAY STANDARDS...AND ASSOCIATED
HAZY CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE. THE STRONG 321 DM H7 RIDGE CENTERED
OVER COASTAL SC TODAY WILL BULGE NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED S/W TROUGH WHICH IS
FORECAST TO ROUND THE RIDGE FROM MO THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE
DELMARVA BY WED AFTERNOON. THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARMTH CHARACTERIZED BY FORECAST H85
TEMPS OF 16-18C...SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES - OR JUST SHY OF THE RECORDS IN THE LOWER 90S.
THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE S/W TROUGH AND PROBABLE OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL APPALACHIAN WILL PROVIDE GLANCING
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 20-25 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD AND PRESS A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO
THE VA TIDEWATER/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION - SHORT OF CENTRAL NC OWING
TO OPPOSING MID-LEVEL AND BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ON AVERAGE...OR
A TOUCH COOLER THAN TUE NIGHT GIVEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND 700 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS
EXCEEDING 3180 METERS. LITTLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
AFTERNOON HEATING. WINDS BELOW 20000 FEET GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KNOTS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. INSTABILITY AND CAPE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER IF PARCELS CAN BE LIFTED HIGH ENOUGH.
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
LESS THAN SLIGHT... BUT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS NOT AN
IMPOSSIBILITY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S EXCEPT UPPER 80S
NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS
WEAKENING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
TEXAS SATURDAY... WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH
CAROLINA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.25 INCHES AND
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES RISE TO ONE IN FOUR. LIGHT WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS SATURDAY AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90S POSSIBLE. THE SMALL THREAT FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER FROM THE LATE WORK
WEEK.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME... SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO NORTH
BY LATE SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS DRYS AND COOLS... BUT TEMPERATURES
STAY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER 80S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THEN LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES LOW TO MID 60S... THEN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...
ASIDE FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT NORTHERN NC...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS EASTWARD TO KRDU
AND KRWI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT.
A PERSISTENT REGIME OF HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR-LIFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI BETWEEN 08-13Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP AND AFFECT THE KRWI AND
KRDU TERMINALS WED AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: THE EXPANSION OF A HOT MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND RESULTANT
WESTWARD EXPANSION OF BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO OUR REGION...WILL REDUCE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND ASSOCIATED PROBABILITY OF MORNING STRATUS AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK:
RDU GSO
WED MAY 2ND: 92 IN 2010 91 IN 1926
THU MAY 3RD: 93 IN 1959 92 IN 1959
FRI MAY 4TH: 94 IN 1938 94 IN 1928
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWSHazardous weather outlook, May 1, 3:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 317 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012 NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-021000- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- 317 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083-084-021000- EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND- 317 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS....LARGE HAIL AND AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. NCZ085-086-088-089-021000- SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 317 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 1, 4:52 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
452 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012
NCZ021-012130-
FORSYTH-
452 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS FORSYTH COUNTY THROUGH 530
PM EDT...
AT 451 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
DONNAHA...OR ABOUT OVER EAST BEND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE DONNAHA...RURAL HALL...
STANLEYVILLE.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
LAT...LON 3626 8004 3610 8004 3610 8005 3617 8045
3621 8045 3622 8044 3624 8046 3626 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 278DEG 20KT 3627 8047
77The office that day
Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 10:32 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Forsyth | 58 min |
| May 1, 3:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Forsyth, Guilford | 35 min |
| May 1, 4:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Granville, Person, Vance, Warren | 80 min |
| May 1, 5:10 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph | 80 min |
| May 1, 5:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Halifax, Warren | 58 min |
| May 1, 5:32 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Franklin, Vance | 58 min |
| May 1, 5:37 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Durham | 53 min |
| May 1, 5:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Durham, Granville, Orange, Person, Wake | 44 min |
| May 1, 6:14 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Durham, Granville, Orange, Wake | 31 min |
| May 1, 6:21 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Edgecombe | 54 min |
| May 1, 6:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Durham, Franklin, Granville, Wake | 36 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.