Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT  AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY...

A NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINA STATE LINE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z TO 09Z SUNDAY...AS THE MID/UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
FIRING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA/VA COASTAL
PLAIN AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD POOL GIVING RISE TO NEW CELL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT OF
CONVECTION...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED(SLIGHT TO SMALL
CHANCE POPS)OWING TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION AND THE
NWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN PLACE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS OVER AT THIS TIME...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A STRONG
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL...NON-SEVERE PEA SIZE HAIL.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...WESTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES CAN EXPECT
TO SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH THE ONSET OF NORTHERLY SFC WINDS
AND WEAK COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION AS A 1015MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL
LIKELY BE A DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL
NELY FEED ADVECTING MARITIME MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC METAR OBSERVATIONS
ALREADY INDICATE LOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL
VA/NORTHERN COASTAL NC AREAS. THUS...EXPECT STRATUS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE MARINE AIR MOVES INLAND. THE
EXACT CUTOFF BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES APPEARS
TO BE BETWEEN RALEIGH AND GREENSBORO. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP
INSULATE TEMPERATURES... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SLIGHTER
COOLER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.

SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE STABLE AND
DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE
IN THE MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PATTERN SUGGEST COOLER TEMPS
NE VERSUS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS MID 70S SOUTH AND WEST TO LOWER 70S
NE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A DECENT S/W DROPPING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND COUPLED WITH A N-S RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL RESULT
IN A NW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS THAT OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHERN OH/WV ACROSS OUR NE COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND PATCH OF LEAST
RESISTANCE PROJECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL-SE VA. SINCE OUR NE
COUNTIES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS PATH...WILL BUMP POPS UP TO
CHANCE NORTH-NE OF RDU WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FROM GSO TO FAY (THOUGH
THIS IS LIKELY VERY GENEROUS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM...

A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE LIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION DELAYED AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOW...PERHAPS MID 80S IN
THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH WITH MOISTER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
TUESDAY. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE HEAVIER WHICH WILL HAMPER CONVECTION
SOMEWHAT IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 80
RANGE...BUT AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST. IN ADDITION...A MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AHEAD OF A CUTOFF LOW IN THE
MIDWEST...THIS RIDGE WOULD POTENTIALLY STEER ANY REMNANT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OR MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...

A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH IN THE MID AND LATE WEEK
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...WITH TEMPS AND POPS DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP
AND THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF A CUTOFF LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
MIDDLE PLAINS. INITIALLY...A SHORT WAVE BLOCKING RIDGE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT LIVED WARMUP TO AROUND 80 AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVIER CLOUDINESS IN PLACE...
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WHILE FRIDAYS HIGHS WILL BE STALLING IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE EDGING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS LOW AND THE SURFACE FRONT...AS UNCERTAIN AS
THAT MAY BE AT THIS POINT...WILL STILL PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FINER DETAILS IN
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED AS LATER MODEL RUNS
CONVERGE TOWARDS A CONSENSUS.

MODEL DIVERGENCE IS BIG ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LATEST GFS HAVING
ABSORBED THE CUTOFF INTO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND MOVED IT
OFFSHORE...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MAINTAINS THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR AN ADDITIONAL WEEKEND VISITATION. EITHER WAY...WILL REMAIN
COOL...WELL...ACTUALLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. AT THIS POINT...POPS WOULD LOOK TO BE SLIGHT...AND MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH IF THE LOW ACTUALLY DOES STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM SATURDAY...

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DRIFT FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THE REST OF THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT AND PARENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION EARLY OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL NE FLOW
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z WITH BASES VARYING BETWEEN IFR AND LOW END MVFR.
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU.

THE LOW STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN LIFT
AND DISSIPATE AT MOST PLACES BY NOON. IN ITS WAKE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM SOME
EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR FOG ON MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL
NC...BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSF/CBL
NEAR TERM...CSF/CBL
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...NP/WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
540 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-011130-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
540 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF STORMS DEVELOP...SOME MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF HAIL...AND A LESSER THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MWS

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