Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TN VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT HAS
PROGRESSED EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NC...AHEAD OF THE MATURE CYCLONE. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO THEN SLOW DOWN OR STALL OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
WHILE IT TOOK A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED...MIXING OF DRY AIR
FROM ALOFT HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
RESPONDING...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S NOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. EXPECT THIS TEMPERATURE TREND TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS HAS
DESTABILIZED AS A RESULT...WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS NOW INDICATING A
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE AREA. WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE LINE
SEGMENT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW.
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED AS WELL...RESULTING IN 45 TO 50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LOWERING OF FREEZING LEVEL FROM 10KFT
THIS AFTERNOON TO 8.5 KFT THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PRIMARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREA METAR SITES BEGINNING TO SHOW
SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ALONG A
THERMAL-MOISTURE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT NEAR THE NC/VA STATE LINE
AND EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
ADJUSTED BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 150 TO 200 MS OF 0 TO 1 KM HELICITY.
AS SUCH A TORNADO WATCH HAS REPLACED THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WITH THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF 31 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NC THROUGH 11 PM.

EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WEAKEN AND BOUNDARY LAYER NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WEAKENS
INSTABILITY. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT
TO AROUND 60 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLEST IN THE WEST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
IF THERE IS A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH THE -20 TO 21C H5 COLD CORE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WHERE STRONGER HEATING
WITHIN THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE SHOULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL FAVOR
PULSE AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
THREATS LIKELY REMAINING MARGINAL.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL FOR SUNDAY IN THE HWO.

HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NW TO MID/UPPER 70S IN
THE EAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
EXITING...WITH DRIER AIR/CLEARING FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AOA DAYBREAK. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER TO MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXIT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
AN H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TO TAKE ITS PLACE. AT THE SURFACE THE
PARENT HIGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON IN A WELL MIXED LAYER...15-20 KNOTS. THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE
40S...DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGHS NEAR 80 WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S.

STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. THE DAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THICKNESSES DROP 40-50 METERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS CENTRAL
NC WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE APPROACHING LOW.
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN FROM THE SOUTH AS DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY THE
END OF THE DAY. HIGHS MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN
THE LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH REGARDS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL FOR ONE
MAKE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA...AND TWO IF IT WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION OR NOT. AT CURRENT TIME THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH AS
A DRY FRONT BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE BIT MORE
ROBUST BRINGING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AND THEN DRIES OUT WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH
THROUGH 18Z OR SO. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS IN THE NORTH AND KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DRY...SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. WITH THE FRONT LINGERING...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL MAKE IT UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH A LITTLE
BIT COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY...HOLDING OFF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS SYSTEM APPEARS WEAK
AT THIS TIME...TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE LARGELY
DETERMINED BY HOW FAR OFF OF THE COAST THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ON
SATURDAY. WITH LIGHT UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF AT
THIS TIME WHICH KEEPS THE HIGH CLOSER TO SHORE AND THUS DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...

MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CONVECTION
WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH
GUSTS TO 40KTS OR MORE AND SMALL HAIL. THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS KINT/KGSO BY 01Z. MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION AT KRDU
WILL END BY 02-03Z AND AT KFAY/KRWI BY 04Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM 06-15Z.
SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TOWARD
DAYBREAK ...MAINLY ACROSS KFAY AND KRWI. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH
SCT SHOWERS THAT MAY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS BRIEFLY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO EAST CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. -BLAES/CBL
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...BLAES/CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-260215-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1015 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 108 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED BUT STILL
EXISTS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT... SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME DECREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY
TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-260215-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
1015 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CAROLIN AS. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY
TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     HAIL             LIBERTY                 35.85N  79.57W
03/24/2012  E0.88 INCH       RANDOLPH           NC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN LIBERTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200136

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
937 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOCUST                  35.26N  80.43W
03/24/2012                   STANLY             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN IN LOCUST

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200137

NP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               35.81N  80.26W
03/24/2012  E1.00 INCH       DAVIDSON           NC   PUBLIC

            1 INCH HAIL IN LEXINGTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200138

SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
942 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

NCZ010-011-026>028-250300-
EDGECOMBE-FRANKLIN-HALIFAX-NASH-WARREN-
942 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NASH...WARREN...HALIFAX...
FRANKLIN AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT...

AT 941 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AFTON TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CENTERVILLE TO BUNN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WARRENTON...
NASHVILLE...RED OAK...LITTLETON...BATTLEBORO...ROSEMARY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 138 AND 173.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 7731 3602 7738 3587 7824 3625 7832
      3632 7828 3654 7832 3655 7790 3651 7788
      3648 7776 3649 7764 3645 7762 3641 7754
      3637 7754 3635 7758 3632 7757 3633 7744
      3624 7737 3622 7738 3616 7727 3611 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 253DEG 35KT 3631 7821 3615 7815
          3599 7819

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N ANSONVILLE          35.13N  80.11W
03/24/2012                   ANSON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            FIRE DEPT RESPONDED TO A TREE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS HWY 52
            JUST NORTH OF ANSONVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200139

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1041 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

NCZ088-250330-
CUMBERLAND-
1041 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH
1130 PM EDT...

AT 1040 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR CREEK...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LUMBERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CEDAR CREEK...AND
STEDMAN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 7893 3489 7893 3514 7871 3510 7865
      3508 7867 3499 7865 3491 7856 3491 7854
      3490 7854 3485 7861 3484 7885 3483 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 222DEG 27KT 3472 7894

VINCENT