Severe Thunderstorm Warning 338, NWS Raleigh, NC

497 
WWUS52 KRAH 030031
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
831 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

NCC001-063-135-145-030130-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0338.000000T0000Z-120903T0130Z/
ALAMANCE NC-DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-
831 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN PERSON...NORTHERN ORANGE...NORTH CENTRAL DURHAM AND
NORTHERN ALAMANCE COUNTIES...

AT 829 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MEBANE...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... EFLAND...CARR...
SCHLEY...BUSHY FORK...ROUGEMONT...BAHAMA...SURL AND MORIAH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 143 AND 161.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE
SHELTER IF YOU HEAR OR SEE A TORNADO.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3632 7880 3618 7880 3593 7951 3625 7947
      3625 7916 3635 7915 3643 7886
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 245DEG 28KT 3613 7929

$$

MWS

265 
WWUS52 KRAH 030043
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
843 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

NCC001-063-135-145-030130-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0338.000000T0000Z-120903T0130Z/
ALAMANCE NC-DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-
843 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN PERSON...NORTHERN ORANGE...NORTH CENTRAL DURHAM AND
NORTHEASTERN ALAMANCE COUNTIES...

AT 836 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MEBANE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF GRAHAM...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... CARR...SCHLEY...BUSHY
FORK...ROUGEMONT...BAHAMA...SURL AND MORIAH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE
SHELTER IF YOU HEAR OR SEE A TORNADO.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3632 7880 3618 7880 3596 7946 3625 7927
      3625 7916 3635 7915 3643 7886
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 248DEG 27KT 3612 7921

$$

WSS

354 
WWUS52 KRAH 030057
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
857 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

NCC001-030106-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0338.000000T0000Z-120903T0130Z/
ALAMANCE NC-
857 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ALAMANCE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.


LAT...LON 3643 7886 3632 7880 3618 7880 3603 7926
      3625 7926 3625 7916 3635 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 248DEG 27KT 3616 7909

$$

NCC063-135-145-030130-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0338.000000T0000Z-120903T0130Z/
DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-
857 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN PERSON...NORTHERN ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL DURHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 848 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SCHLEY...OR NEAR HILLSBOROUGH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... BUSHY FORK...
ROUGEMONT...BAHAMA...SURL AND MORIAH.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

IF YOU OBSERVED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3643 7886 3632 7880 3618 7880 3603 7926
      3625 7926 3625 7916 3635 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 248DEG 27KT 3616 7909

$$

WSS

320 
WWUS52 KRAH 030121
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
921 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

NCC063-135-145-030131-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0338.000000T0000Z-120903T0130Z/
DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-
921 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PERSON...NORTHERN
ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL DURHAM COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE WARNING IS 
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE 
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL 
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.


LAT...LON 3643 7886 3632 7880 3618 7880 3603 7926
      3625 7926 3625 7916 3635 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 248DEG 27KT 3623 7887

$$

WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
621 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
REMNANTS OF ISAAC APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: THE FOLLOWING SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS
AFTERNOON...
-CIRCULATION ASSOC WITH ISAAC REMNANTS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST.
-DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NC
EXTENDING TO THE EAST AND WELL OFFSHORE
-MIDLEVEL S/W RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EXTENDING NORTH
INTO VA...WITH A VORTICITY SHEAR AXIS JUST UPSTREAM AND CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CELLS
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST GIVEN A 240-270 DEG STORM
MOTION <6 KTS AS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. NOTED THAT BULK SHEAR REMAINS <20KT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS
FOR DCAPE...WHILE BEST VALUES FOR WIND GUSTS ARE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...3 TO 6 HOUR RAP PROGS SUGGEST INCREASING DCAPE EXTENDING UP
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SANDHILLS AREAS. FINALLY PWAT
VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (2+ INCHES) ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SO IN
SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE PULSE IN NATURE...AND GIVEN
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH PWAT VALUES...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. A
SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND BRIEF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE S/SE HALF OF OUR CWA
WHERE CAPE AND DCAPE ARE ENHANCED.

TONIGHT...SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 10 PM LEAVING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS FROM
RECENT DAYS...SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM ISAAC REMNANTS
IS FORECAST TO SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT AND SPLIT OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINA COAST.  ONE  PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE NE AND ANOTHER TO THE S. SIMILAR TO TODAY...
ANOTHER VORTICITY AXIS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAYTIME...AND SHOULD HELP
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXPECT A HIGH PWAT AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT PULSE TYPE ACTIVITY AND WITH STORM
MOTION PROGGED AOB 7 KTS...ONCE AGAIN LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.  AS FOR POPS...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY STRONG-CHANCE POPS TAPERED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS
OUR WESTERN HALF.  LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 90. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF ISAAC
REMNANTS AND SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL IMPULSES AROUND IT AND ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW... SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ON A BIT
LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE QUICKLY-DAMPENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- THE REMAINS OF ISAAC -- WILL APPROACH WRN/CENTRAL NC FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DPVA WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SW ACROSS GA WITH JUST A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SETTLING EASTWARD INTO
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT... WHILE ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACK JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 80 FROM LAKE
ERIE TO NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE WEAKENING WAVE'S APPROACH FROM THE
WEST... DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC... WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS... AND LOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR (5-10 KTS AT BEST). MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DECENT IN
THE WESTERN CWA WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES... BUT WILL SEE
LOWER VALUES (NEAR 1.5 INCHES--CLOSE TO NORMAL) IN THE EAST WHERE
SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE PULLED ONSHORE FROM THE ESE.
ALSO... MODELS INDICATE SOMEWHAT POOR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WITH
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS... AND
THE MODELS ARE GENERATING VERY LITTLE QPF... WITH SREF PROBABILITIES
OF ANY PRECIP HOLDING UNDER 30 PERCENT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WEST.
WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST TUESDAY... BUT WILL DROP
TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. HIGHS 85-89 WITH
THICKNESSES HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS 69-73 WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING.

FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD... MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY.
ACCORDINGLY... THE HIGHER PW VALUES SPREAD EASTWARD AS WELL INTO
THIS AREA... CLIMBING TO 2.0-2.2 INCHES IN A RIBBON THROUGH CENTRAL
NC. INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT BETTER AS WELL WITH MODELS SHOWING
1200-1800 J/KG OF MLCAPE AREAWIDE... HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS POOR AT JUST 5-10 KTS. BUT THE HIGHER SREF PROBABILITIES OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP KICK EASTWARD WEDNESDAY WITH 50-70 PERCENT CHANCES
COVERING CENTRAL NC... AND WITH THE MINOR HEIGHT FALLS AND SLIGHT
UPTICK IN DYNAMICALLY-INDUCED LIFT... WILL STAY WITH FORECAST OF
SCATTERED STORMS AREAWIDE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON... CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE WILL LIKELY BE SLOW-MOVERS... WITH A
HEIGHTENED THREAT OF STREET FLOODING. HIGHS AGAIN 85-89. LOWS 68-73
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1140 AM SUNDAY...

EXPECT WET WEATHER EARLY BUT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH FAST MID LEVEL FLOW AND A VERY
BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO CANADA
(AROUND A STRONG VORTEX OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO)... WHILE AN E-W
ELONGATED RIDGE COVERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTO NRN MEXICO... AND A
WEAK LIKELY SUBTROPICAL LOW SITS JUST OFF THE NE COAST OF FL. A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ALONG
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH... WELL AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT.

FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: ONE LARGE BUT LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY... AND THE ENSUING HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PREFRONTAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD INSTIGATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER CENTRAL NC... PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN THE DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR FILTERING INTO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN 5-10
METERS ABOVE NORMAL... ALTHOUGH THIS WARMTH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED BY CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG PROMINENTLY OVER
THE MIDWEST/PLAINS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
ENERGY DROPPING FROM MT/WY/DAKOTAS INTO THE BROAD TROUGH BASE. IN
RESPONSE... THE DOWNSTREAM BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT HEADS TO OUR NE. (THE WEAK LOW
OFF FL APPEARS LIKELY TO STAY ENOUGH TO OUR SSE TO NOT BE A FACTOR
IN OUR WEATHER.) THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE
WESTERN APPALACHIAN SLOPES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER THE
PUSH OF COOL AIR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WILL BE MUTED WITH THE AIR
MASS QUICKLY MODIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. SO WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT... THE REDUCTION IN
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE SUBTLE. AS SUCH... EXPECT A
MINIMAL DIP IN TEMPS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT 66-71.

FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW EARLY
FRIDAY WILL HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS STEAM AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND IT
MODIFIES. THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WILL REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR BROKEN
DIURNAL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY... BUT THE MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSEQUENT LOWERING OF PW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
OF ANY CONVECTION. WITH THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE MIXED PHASE
REGION ALOFT... LIGHTNING PRODUCTION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND EXPECT NO
MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AT BEST FRIDAY WITH A LACK OF BOTH MOISTURE
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. THICKNESSES CHANGE VERY LITTLE AND STAY
ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS OF 86-90. LOWS 65-70 WITH FAIR SKIES.

FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY: THE CANADIAN VORTEX WOBBLES SLOWLY ACROSS JAMES
BAY WHILE THE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND GREAT LAKES.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THIS
NORTHERN STREAM SEPARATING... WITH THE CANADIAN VORTEX CROSSING NRN
QUEBEC... WHILE THE TROUGH STRONGLY AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE 06Z GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND REMAINS PHASED AND PUSHES A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID SOUTH... WITH A LARGE COOL
FALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY TROUGHING THAN ITS OPERATIONAL COUNTERPART... THE TWO AGREE
WELL ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT... AND THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE GEFS MEAN AND FROM THE NEW 12Z GFS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS HOLDING JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WELL EAST OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE MID SOUTH REGION AND APPROACHES NC... WILL BRING IN A SMALL
CHANCE OF STORMS LATE SUNDAY... ALONG WITH WARM TEMPS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT
OF EASTERN STATIONS BUT KINT AND KGSO ARE CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED
BY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT PROBLEMS WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AT ALL SITES. LOW CEILINGS 500-1000 IS THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE SECONDARY.
TIMING WOULD BE AFTER 9Z UNTIL SUNRISE WITH EASTERN SITES HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SUB-VFR LONGER THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST BUT POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW SINCE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE WILL
BE CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGHT THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY VFR THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM....NP
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 AM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-030830-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
419 AM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS
OF ISAAC WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND CONSEQUENT
LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE BETHEL HILL       36.49N  78.85W
09/02/2012                   PERSON             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AND BLOCKING THE ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200902

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
552 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

NCZ021-038-022300-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-
552 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS FORSYTH AND DAVIDSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KANNAPOLIS TO SALISBURY TO
YADKINVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE FROM 0 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON TO
10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLEMMONS...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...HUNTSVILLE...
CLEMMONS...MIDWAY...LEWISVILLE...WINSTON-SALEM...PFAFFTOWN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA TO HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 182 AND 203.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 83 AND 103.

BOATERS ON THE OPEN WATER AND THOSE CAMPING OUTDOORS ARE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. THOSE CAMPING SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR
VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8045 3626 8019 3615 8004
      3579 8005 3558 8021 3567 8033 3572 8034
      3574 8046 3582 8047 3586 8042 3585 8039
      3589 8042 3589 8038 3591 8037 3602 8042
      3606 8047 3604 8050 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 248DEG 17KT 3606 8061 3588 8035
          3556 8058

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
658 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

NCZ022-038-039-030015-
DAVIDSON-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
658 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH...GUILFORD AND
EASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 656 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLFAX TO 9 MILES WEST OF
DENTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF HIGH POINT
TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF LINWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...THOMASVILLE...
GORDONTOWN...TRINITY...SUMMERFIELD...JAMESTOWN...GREENSBORO.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA TO HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH
ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH
CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8004 3626 8003 3625 7954 3584 7954
      3559 7965 3554 8020 3558 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 262DEG 19KT 3611 8005 3561 8026

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
713 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

NCZ007-030015-
PERSON-
713 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PERSON COUNTY THROUGH 815
PM EDT...

AT 713 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES WEST OF CONCORD...OR ABOUT OVER YANCEYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CONCORD...AND
OTHERWISE RURAL NORTHWESTERN PERSON COUNTY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3655 7879 3652 7883 3634 7914 3635 7915
      3651 7915 3654 7914 3655 7913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 225DEG 16KT 3643 7925

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
751 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

NCZ023-024-030045-
ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
751 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ORANGE AND ALAMANCE
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 752 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GLEN RAVEN...OR ABOUT OVER BURLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...UNION RIDGE...
PLEASANT GROVE...CARR.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7907 3604 7947 3605 7954 3622 7953
      3626 7948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 233DEG 17KT 3613 7947

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
820 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

NCZ022>025-039-040-030145-
ALAMANCE-CHATHAM-DURHAM-GUILFORD-ORANGE-RANDOLPH-
820 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ORANGE...WESTERN
DURHAM...WESTERN CHATHAM AND ALAMANCE COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 819 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALAMANCE TO STALEY...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURLINGTON TO 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF SILER CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...GLEN RAVEN...
BURLINGTON...SNOW CAMP...HAW RIVER...SUTPHIN...SAXAPAHAW.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 7886 3587 7890 3581 7892 3572 7964
      3612 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 254DEG 22KT 3605 7951 3579 7953

WSS