Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Raleigh, NC

899 
WWUS52 KRAH 031920
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

NCC051-093-031945-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-120703T1945Z/
HOKE NC-CUMBERLAND NC-
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN CUMBERLAND AND EAST CENTRAL HOKE COUNTIES...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOPE
MILLS...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... BONNIE DOONE.

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3495 7918 3516 7915 3515 7889 3493 7892
      3493 7901 3495 7903 3494 7905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 285DEG 8KT 3503 7900

$$

ELLIS

095 
WWUS52 KRAH 031926
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

NCC051-093-031936-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-120703T1945Z/
HOKE NC-CUMBERLAND NC-
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CUMBERLAND AND EAST
CENTRAL HOKE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE WARNING IS 
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

WHILE THE IMMEDIATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DISSIPATED...ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BE PREPARED TO
MOVE QUICKLY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3495 7918 3516 7915 3515 7889 3493 7892
      3493 7901 3495 7903 3494 7905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 285DEG 8KT 3503 7899

$$

ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST. OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 123 PM TUESDAY...

WITH MIDDAY UPDATE...INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO
40 PERCENT AS CONVECTION FIRING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD DRIFT
SE IN THE NW FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WHILE BEST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS CURRENTLY RESIDE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN (WHERE SFC BASED
CAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG AT 17Z) BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING INN
THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE RIDGES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SE INTO THE
YADKIN VALLEY/WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SEVERE PROBABLE AS RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE DOWNDRAFTS...LEADING TO STRONG/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE FREEZING LEVELS HIGH (13-14K FT)....STRONG
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE NICKEL-QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES REQUIRED ELSEWHERE AS TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH
THE MID-UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104 RANGE WITH A SPOT OR
TWO AT 105/106 DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. -WSS

THE GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN GENERATING VORTICES AND SUSTAINING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED TO ABSENT BY LATE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. -99

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...

AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST... STRETCHING FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONSENSUS THAT THE WAVE WILL SHARPEN OVER VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE LARGELY UNAVAILABLE. THUS WILL HOLD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES TO NO MORE THAN 40 PERCENT NORTHWEST... TAPERING TOWARD
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST... WITH SHOWERS PERHAPS NOT
CLEARING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS POTENTIAL ENERGY AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUE WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND MINUS FIVE AND CAPE
LIKELY  IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY
AND CLOUDS WILL INTERFERE WITH INSOLATION. HOWEVER THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL... NEAR 93 NORTHWEST  TO
AROUND 97 SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES 70 TO 74.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

     PROBABLE PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD WETTER AND LESS HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NC THU...AROUND ANOTHER BUILDING MID-UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BRIEFLY EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI-SAT...BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEGATIVE NAO AND POSITIVE
PNA-DRIVEN TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
NATION/SE CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRESENCE/PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SUGGESTS SCATTERED
PULSE CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER CENTRAL NC THU...FOCUSED OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT... FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING
PROBABILITIES AS THE MID-UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD FRI-SAT. IT
THEN APPEARS THAT THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL FORCE A CONVECTION-FOCUSING FRONTAL
ZONE SOUTH INTO NC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO COOL PRECEDING MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S HEAT
TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHES OF 3-5SM FOG IN SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS 5-8 AM WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES 6000-7000FT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED FRO THU-SUN AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THOUGH AN
ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER WITH HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET:

JULY 3 (TUESDAY)
RDU: 98 (1955)
GSO: 98 (1911)
FAY: 100 (1954)

ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS:

RDU: 105 DEGREES (6/30/2012, 6/29/2012, 8/21/2007, 8/18/1988,
7/23/1952)

GSO: 104 DEGREES (7/27/1914, 6/12/1914, 6/12/1912)

FAY: 107 DEGREES (8/9/2007, 7/22/1932)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...WSS/99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1129 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-041000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1129 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.