Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Raleigh, NC

792 
WWUS52 KRAH 292018
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCC093-125-292100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120529T2100Z/
HOKE NC-MOORE NC-
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOORE AND NORTHWESTERN HOKE COUNTIES...

AT 414 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ASHLEY
HEIGHTS...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... PINEBLUFF...ABERDEEN...
PINEHURST...TAYLORTOWN...WHISPERING PINES...VASS...CARTHAGE AND
CAMERON.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3506 7948 3507 7951 3540 7948 3538 7928
      3535 7926 3531 7919 3526 7922 3521 7914
      3497 7937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 186DEG 17KT 3508 7939

$$

VINCENT

931 
WWUS52 KRAH 292027
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
427 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCC093-125-292100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120529T2100Z/
HOKE NC-MOORE NC-
427 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOORE AND NORTHWESTERN HOKE COUNTIES...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ABERDEEN...OR NEAR SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... PINEHURST...
TAYLORTOWN...WHISPERING PINES...VASS...CAMERON AND CARTHAGE.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3506 7947 3507 7951 3540 7948 3538 7928
      3535 7926 3531 7919 3526 7922 3523 7918
      3500 7941
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 185DEG 24KT 3516 7938

$$

VINCENT

003 
WWUS52 KRAH 292031
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
431 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCC093-292041-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120529T2100Z/
HOKE NC-
431 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HOKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED NORTH INTO MOORE 
COUNTY...THEREFORE THE WARNING FOR HOKE COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3506 7947 3507 7951 3540 7948 3538 7928
      3535 7926 3531 7919 3527 7922 3521 7925
      3516 7934 3505 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 185DEG 24KT 3519 7938

$$

NCC125-292100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120529T2100Z/
MOORE NC-
431 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTY...

AT 427 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN
PINES...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... TAYLORTOWN...WHISPERING
PINES...VASS...CAMERON AND CARTHAGE.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3506 7947 3507 7951 3540 7948 3538 7928
      3535 7926 3531 7919 3527 7922 3521 7925
      3516 7934 3505 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 185DEG 24KT 3519 7938

$$

VINCENT

306 
WWUS52 KRAH 292043
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
443 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCC125-292052-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120529T2100Z/
MOORE NC-
443 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED...AND SEVERE 
WEATHER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3506 7947 3507 7951 3540 7948 3538 7928
      3535 7926 3531 7919 3527 7922 3521 7925
      3516 7934 3505 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 185DEG 24KT 3526 7937

$$

VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BERYL WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE EFFECTS
OF T.D. BERYL AND ITS PRECEDING INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE
CENTER OF BERYL... NOW LOCATED OVER SE GA... IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A MOVEMENT TO THE NE ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC TONIGHT INTO MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY... BEFORE SCRAPING ALONG THE SRN COAST OF NC
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. (PLEASE SEE THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE NHC
CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF BERYL). HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT MAINLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LAURINBURG TO
DUNN TO TARBORO. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THIS AREA.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ARE ONGOING WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE AND COINCIDENT WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG). AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING...
THE HRRR MODEL IS HANDLING THIS TROPICAL CONVECTION PRETTY WELL... A
COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW BUT OVERALL AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF
COVERAGE AND MODE OF CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
LCL-TO-FREEZING-LEVEL DEPTH IS NEAR 4 KM... FAVORING WARM RAIN
PROCESSES... AND WINDS MAY LOCALLY GUST TO 25 MPH NEAR SHOWERS. THE
HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DECREASING WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY
EVENING... VERY REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF OTHER FORCING
MECHANISMS AND THE ABSENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN... FROM 30% (NORTH CENTRAL) TO 60% (SOUTHEAST) COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS DOWN TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UNTIL MID EVENING.
THEN... ATTENTION TURNS NOT ONLY TO THE APPROACH OF BERYL'S RAIN
SHIELD FROM THE SOUTH BUT ALSO TO THE ORGANIZED LINE OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS/STORMS NOW RUNNING FROM CENTRAL PA ACROSS WV INTO ERN KY/TN.
THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES
THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS INTO THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING... SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW. WILL RAMP
POPS BACK UP TO GOOD CHANCE IN THE NW CWA BY LATE EVENING. AS THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT... WE EXPECT THE RAIN SHIELD DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
BERYL TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THEN NNE... CULMINATING IN WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A
FEW STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 OVERNIGHT. AS WE
HEAD TOWARD DAWN WEDNESDAY... EARLY PARTS OF THE MORNING COMMUTE
COULD BE A RAINLY MESS FROM THE TRIANGLE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
LOWS TONIGHT 66-71. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF BERYL...
ALONG-TRACK DIRECTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND A FOCUS OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW AND 850 MB THETA-E ALONG COASTAL NC... THE
GREATEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG COASTAL SC/NC... JUST SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT MODELS AGREE ON ENOUGH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NORTH OF THE CENTER COINCIDENT WITH AN UPPER DIVERGENCE
MAXIMUM AND ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5-3.0 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE WATCH
AREA SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA CAN WITHSTAND AROUND 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR SO WITHOUT MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS... HOWEVER
SOME URBAN LOCATIONS... INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE / CLINTON / GOLDSBORO
/ WILSON / SMITHFIELD... MAY ONLY BE ABLE TO TAKE A QUICK INCH OR
SO BEFORE STREAMS AND DITCHES FILL UP AND STREETS BEGIN TO FLOOD.
WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE. FOLLOWING NHC GUIDANCE FOR BERYL AND
THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING RAINFALL AND TIMING... WE
SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING... WITH GRADUAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN ITS
WAKE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND POST-STORM DRY AIR
FILTERS IN. HIGHS OF 78-86 AND LOWS 61-65. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS MOISTENS THE AIR MASS MUCH
MORE QUICKLY THAN THE NAM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THAT
MODEL RISING TO 1.5 INCHES BY 00Z FRIDAY COMPARED WITH 1.25 INCHES
AND THAT ONLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY THE SAME TIME. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE STABLE AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...WHILE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT UNSTABLE...WITH MODEST CIN PARTICULARLY
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE THURSDAY...LESS
THAN 20KT AT 0-3KM...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT THE
TRIAD TO FAYETTEVILLE...IN VICINITY OF THE BEST 850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AND CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE AND 850MB BOUNDARY
THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS WERE IN THE FORECAST
ALREADY...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
NOT REMOVE ANY OF THESE...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD
CHANCE POPS BEING THURSDAY NIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IS LEAST THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS...
ALONG WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. LIFTED INDICES ON THE GFS FALL TO
NEAR -7C FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE NAM IS LESS...IT STILL
FORECASTS A RESPECTABLE -3C TO -5C WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING
NEARLY 1500J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE AS 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO
AROUND 30KT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER BY 00Z SATURDAY TOWARD THE YADKIN
RIVER. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...
ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD OVERCOME THE CIN AVAILABLE ON GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY BECOMING
NUMEROUS TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WIND...HOWEVER...WILL NOTE THAT 0-3KM HELICITY
ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS IS AROUND 125M2/S2...AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD ON THE GFS SHOWS GREATER TURNING AS COMPARED TO THE NAM. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

BEYOND FRIDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE...PARTICULARLY AS BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE
ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES. THE DGEX LEANS MORE TOWARD THE
FASTER ECWMF...BUT THAT MODEL HAS TRENDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SLOWER...
PARTICULARLY WITH THE SPEED OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND LIKELY DUE TO
ITS TREND HIGHER WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA OFFSHORE OF CONUS IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE GFS
MAY ACTUALLY VERIFY BETTER...BUT CONCERNS REGARDING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THAT MODEL CONTINUE.

HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY INTACT...THOUGH FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THIS FORECAST TO MENTION LIKELY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FRIDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING FROM FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND
IN AN ATMOSPHERE WITH HIGH MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES AND LIKELY APPROACH 1.75 INCHES.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IF THE GFS VERIFIES EXACTLY
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST EVEN LATE SATURDAY MAINLY
INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHILE IN DEFERENCE TO
THE GFS FORECASTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM U.S. 1 AND EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FROM ITS 06Z TUESDAY RUN TO THE 12Z TUESDAY RUN.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST STATES AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...ALONG WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE NATION...WILL KEEP CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SUGGEST A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR WHAT LIKELY WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AT TIMES AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTHEAST ON THE PREVAILING FLOW ALOFT AND FOLLOWING THE THERMAL
WIND AS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALTHOUGH SOME
QPF IS FORECAST PARTICULARLY BY THE 00Z ECMWF FOR MONDAY...WILL KEEP
THAT DAY DRY FOR NOW AS ALL OF THE GFS MOS ENSEMBLES ARE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY IN TERMS OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT MAY SAG SOUTH JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST. DID NOT FORECAST HIGHS AS
WARM AS THE GFS THICKNESSES WOULD IMPLY...STICKING CLOSER TO HIGHS
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES OF THE ECMWF CONSIDERING
ANY POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. DESPITE THIS...WARMEST HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...WHERE MID 90S ARE MOST
PROBABLE BY TUESDAY. AS THE AIR MOISTENS ONCE AGAIN...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RISE TO NEAR 70 OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON'S PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR (AND BRIEFLY IFR) FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH STARTING LATE TONIGHT. T.D. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SE GA OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC TONIGHT THEN ALONG THE SRN NC
COAST ON WEDNESDAY (SEE NHC BULLETINS FOR THE LATEST INFO).
CURRENTLY... PATCHY SHOWERS WERE NOTED AROUND THE TRIAD REGION BUT
ARE UNLIKELY TO DOMINATE AT INT/GSO THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS AT RWI/FAY AND MAY AFFECT RDU AS WELL THROUGH 22Z.
THEN AFTER NIGHTFALL... LOSS OF HEATING WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING
SHOWERS... BUT BERYL'S APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SITES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... STARTING FIRST AT FAY
AFTER 06Z AND THEN AT RDU/RWI AFTER 08Z. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
LIKELY AT FAY/RWI/RDU. INT/GSO SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF MVFR SHOWERS
THIS EVENING BUT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD HOLD EAST OF THIS
AREA. THE GREATEST RISK OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
08Z-15Z AT FAY... 09Z-16Z AT RDU... AND 10Z-18Z AT RWI. FAY IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE WINDS SUSTAINED FROM THE NE AT 12-15 KTS GUSTING TO
20-25 KTS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. NE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER AT
RDU/RWI.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURNING VFR
CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS
BERYL MOVES AWAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN
FRIDAY... AND BORDERLINE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE SEEN AS WELL AS
WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
439 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCZ007-021>024-038>040-073>076-083-084-300930-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
439 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL NC FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-300930-
EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
439 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO THE MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ008>011-025>027-041-300930-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-WAKE-
439 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER INCLUDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
103 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCZ042-089-291745-
JOHNSTON-SAMPSON-
103 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF SAMPSON AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 102 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER NEWTON GROVE...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF
CLINTON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NEWTON GROVE.

OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HEAVY RAINFALL...A QUICK QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN LESS THAN 30
MINUTES...AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 334 AND 343.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 90 AND 93.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. STAY TUNED TO
THIS STATION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3516 7854 3550 7838 3545 7816 3532 7823
      3532 7828 3529 7830 3525 7827 3510 7835
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 194DEG 12KT 3521 7841

DJF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
126 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-291900-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-
HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...
LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
126 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON...

AT 120 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM LAURINBURG TO
TARBORO. THE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 15 MPH.

AN OBSERVATION FROM THE FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT SHOWED A WIND GUST
JUST OVER 35 MPH AT 112 PM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL...A QUICK QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN LESS THAN 30
MINUTES.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

PERSONS DRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 95 SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...REDUCED VISIBILITY IN ANY HEAVY RAIN...
AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

FOR THOSE OUTDOORS...MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER.
MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE
RESUMING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

DJF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCZ023>025-040-041-076-077-292030-
ALAMANCE-CHATHAM-DURHAM-HARNETT-LEE-ORANGE-WAKE-
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT... WAKE...
ORANGE... LEE... DURHAM... CHATHAM AND ALAMANCE COUNTIES THROUGH 430
PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SEMINOLE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LILLINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... DUNCAN...
SANFORD... PITTSBORO... HOLLY SPRINGS... NEW HILL... APEX...
CARPENTER... MORRISVILLE...AND CHAPEL HILL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7880 3609 7881 3607 7879 3608 7868
      3602 7853 3587 7828 3582 7826 3571 7847
      3552 7871 3534 7853 3525 7862 3527 7879
      3519 7910 3527 7922 3531 7919 3535 7927
      3547 7936 3552 7935 3552 7956 3625 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 180DEG 20KT 3547 7893

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCZ086-088-292045-
CUMBERLAND-HOKE-
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS CUMBERLAND AND HOKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 309 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
SOUTH OF HOPE MILLS...OR ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF RED SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROCKFISH...HOPE
MILLS...FAYETTEVILLE...BONNIE DOONE...FORT BRAGG...SPRING LAKE...
AND...POPE AFB.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 41 AND 65.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 7890 3488 7893 3495 7904 3483 7919
      3484 7935 3494 7935 3505 7946 3521 7925
      3517 7912 3519 7909 3523 7889 3526 7882
      3525 7864 3522 7862 3520 7865 3512 7864
      3509 7867 3499 7865 3486 7850 3485 7885
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 193DEG 16KT 3486 7901

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
314 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCZ073>075-083>085-292045-
ANSON-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-STANLY-
314 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS STANLY...SCOTLAND...
RICHMOND...MOORE...MONTGOMERY AND ANSON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WADESBORO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS STRETCH
FROM ROCKINGHAM TO LAURINBURG.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ANSONVILLE...NORWOOD...
PLYLER...AND...ALBEMARLE...FINGER...ELLERBE...ROCKINGHAM...TROY...
HAMLET...AND LAURINBURG.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3552 7935 3549 7934 3547 7936
      3535 7927 3531 7919 3527 7922 3518 7910
      3517 7915 3521 7925 3505 7946 3494 7935
      3482 7936 3477 7933 3463 7946 3480 7968
      3481 8032 3519 8028 3516 8044 3520 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 157DEG 24KT 3502 8010

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCZ075-084-085-292045-
MOORE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SCOTLAND...RICHMOND AND
MOORE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
EAST OF DOBBINS HEIGHTS...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROCKINGHAM...
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HOFFMAN...DERBY...
AND...NORMAN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 7971 3518 7980 3517 7967 3516 7965
      3516 7963 3517 7962 3516 7962 3517 7956
      3516 7945 3481 7952
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 176DEG 22KT 3491 7961

10