Areal Flood Advisory 5, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
235 PM MDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...

(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.  STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER AND NR THE HYR TRRN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE QUITE SLOW MOVING WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE.  STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD OUT ACRS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES THIS MORNING RANGED FROM ABOUT
160-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND ABUNDANT MSTR
OVR THE AREA WOULD SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE MONSOON MSTR
PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH
LATE MON.  THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOW HIGH PW VALUES FOR MON...BUT
DECREASING BY LATE MON OVR THE CENTRAL MTS.  THE UPR RIDGE WL BE
CENTERED OVR WRN UT TONIGHT...AND OVER ERN CO THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SMALL VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.  AS THIS DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THRU SERN CO TONIGHT
AND MON...IT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH UPR LIFT TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR ERN AREAS.
THUS WL KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND FOR MON.
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY ON MON.  THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON MON AS
MSTR WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL AND STORMS SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY SLOW
MOVING.

FOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...THE HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  LATE TONIGHT THERE WL STILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HEAVY RAIN IS NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...

(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER UTAH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VARIOUS MODELS HAVE DEVELOPED AN MCS FEATURE AND
TRACK IT SOUTH ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WHETHER OR NOT THIS FEATURE
MATERIALIZES IS IN QUESTION...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BE
ENTERING INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTH WITH IT. MODELS VARYING ON
WHEN THEY WANT TO TAPER OF THE RAINFALL...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
BASICALLY DONE WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY MID
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER HOLDING ON TO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW
FOLLOWED ALONG WITH THE FASTER NAM AND ECMWF WITH PRECIP COMING TO
AN END NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVER THIS TIME PERIOD
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME FLOODING IN LOW LAYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

BEYOND TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH SHIFTS BACK EAST OVER
COLORADO AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE WEAK STEERING FLOWS...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MOVEMENT OFF
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE PLAINS BEING DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODELS ARE VARYING ON WHEN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY
RETURN. YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING SATURDAY...BUT THE
LATEST CYCLES HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET TO SUNDAY OR LATER. THE
OVERALL TREND WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE  MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT COS...THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 30-40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRATUS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AFT 06Z ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ081-084-085.

&&

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