Special Weather Statement, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 PM MST SAT JUL 14 2012

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF THE
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE BELOW-AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES WILL LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
GENERAL WARMING TREND...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY TRY TO START WORKING
WESTWARD INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND WV SATELLITE INTERPRETATION SUGGESTS THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED INTO FAR SERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING
WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH THROUGH ARIZONA. VORT
MAX WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE THE TURN THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...ENHANCING DOWNSTREAM FORCING WHILE PULLING SLIGHTLY COOLING
AIR ALOFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR TWENTYNINE PALMS AND NEARLY ALONG I-10 INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN AN EFFECTIVE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR REPEATED CONVECTIVE GENERATION IN LA PAZ COUNTY THUS
FAR.

REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH MODEL FORECASTS INDICATES VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES (PWATS AROUND 2.0 INCHES) WITH NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN. LARGE SUBCLOUD
LAYERS AND MLCAPE AVAILABILITY ABOVE FREEZING WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUED TO FEED UPSCALE
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...NOT ONLY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...BUT MORESO IN A FAVORABLY DIFLUENT JET REGION THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

THE WRN ARIZONA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH SUNSET...WHEN LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY
TO WANE AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE EJECTION.
GIVEN THE QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT UNTIL THAT POINT. ACTIVITY OVER SERN
ARIZONA SHOULD PARTIALLY CONGEAL THROUGH THE EASTERN FORECAST
COUNTIES...LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE INSTABILITY AXIS. A GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH
LIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND LITTLE
ELEVATED INHIBITION...SCT/ISOLD ACCAS SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS.

A SECONDARY DEEPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG ALONG THE CNTRL/WRN CALIFORNIA
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND JET
AXIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ACT TO ADVECT DRIER AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WHILE FOCUSING THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF THE PHOENIX METRO. MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE IN THIS
SCENARIO...AND HAVE GENERALLY KEPT POPS ON THE SLGT/LOWER CHANCE
SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THICKNESSES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND
BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG VORT MAX SLIDES DOWN THE WEST
COAST. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK FOR
THE MONSOON HIGH TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND MOISTURE TO WORK BACK WESTWARD. 12Z MODELS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
MORE HASTY WITH THIS TRANSITION...THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS TOWARDS THE
LOWER SIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PHOENIX AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND
25 KNOTS. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 7KFT...WITH CIGS BRIEFLY
AOB 5000FT AGL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST AFTER 02Z...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NOW AFFECTING KBLH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN
15 AND 25 KNOTS. STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST BY
02Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EVENING.

A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPL THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS TO PREVAIL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT NEXT WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE TEENS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD...WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/MO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
603 AM MST SAT JUL 14 2012

AZZ022-023-027-028-151315-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
603 AM MST SAT JUL 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ024-151315-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
603 AM MST SAT JUL 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-151315-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
603 AM MST SAT JUL 14 2012 /603 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

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