Special Weather Statement, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OVER INLAND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAD
PULLED SEVERAL SMALL RIPPLES IN THE CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW INTO SWRN
ARIZONA THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. A COUNTERPART ANTI-CYCLONE OVER CNTRL
SONORA MEXICO WAS CREATING A VERY FAVORABLE STRONGLY DIFLUENT FLOW
OVER BASICALLY THE ENTIRE STATE OF ARIZONA. VERY HIGH PWATS
(OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED BETWEEN 1.3 AND 2.0 INCHES) ENVELOPED THE
REGION...WITH A PLUME OF IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS FOCUSED
INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA (H8 AOA +16C/H7 AOA +9C). ALTHOUGH
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACCAS SHRA/TSRA HAD CONTAMINATED THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER PARTS OF THE REGION LIMITING OVERALL SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WERE FEEDING NEWLY FORMED
THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN ARIZONA...WITH RAPID CLEARING TO THE NORTH
AIDING IN LATE DAY DESTABILIZATION.

GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHERLY SHEAR COMPONENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTH-SOUTH ALIGNED
TRAINING ECHOES IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL
RATES AOA 2.0 INCHES/HOUR HAVE AND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND FEEL COVERAGE WARRANTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
CORRESPONDINGLY...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA IN A LIKELY CATEGORY AND BASIN AVERAGE
QPF AOA 0.25 INCHES. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE WAVE
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SWRN UTAH SHOULD LIFT THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT (THOUGH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD AFFECT CNTRL ARIZONA INTO THE MORNING HOURS).

WHILE THE FIRST VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ELONGATED TROUGH
AXIS AND PV ANOMALY STILL REMAINS STRETCHED OUT TO THE WEST. LARGER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT AS WELL
AS SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED DIFLUENCE ON THE RIGHT FRONT SIDE OF THE
JET STREAK. GLOBAL MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS RATHER ROBUST GIVEN VERY
MOIST AIRMASS...WHILE MORE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF RESPONSE. KEPT SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH FEEL MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THE OTHER HAND...THE JET STREAK AND MAIN VORT CENTER WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...PLACING MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND DIFLUENT AREA. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME FAR MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH SHOULD DRY OUT THE WESTERN
GRIDS...BUT FOCUS ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF PHOENIX. PWATS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH (AOA 1.5 INCHES)...WHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE...OWING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...DEPICTING
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH TUE AS A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE MONSOON RIDGE IS EJECTED EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL... A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL PERSIST BRINGING PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR
STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
THREAT OF OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. CLOUD BASES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 6-8K FT RANGE...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP
DURING PERIODS OF PROLONGED RAINFALL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECT AIRFIELDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH BASES GENERALLY AROUND 6-8K FT. THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT NEXT WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TERRAIN WILL REMAIN...LASTING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS. OVERALL...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
BE FAIR TO GOOD EACH NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AZZ020>024-026>028.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT CAZ030>032.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/MO
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
403 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2012

AZZ021>023-026>028-142315-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS-SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
403 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ024-142315-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
403 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ025-CAZ033-142315-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
403 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2012 /403 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ020-CAZ030>032-142315-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
403 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2012 /403 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1220 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2012

AZZ024-132000-
GILA AZ-
1220 PM MST FRI JUL 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 100 PM MST

AT 1219 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CUTTER...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...

LAT...LON 3346 11081 3350 11062 3331 11059 3328 11072
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 172DEG 7KT 3336 11068

KUHLMAN

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