Blowing Dust Advisory 47, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
411 PM MST TUE SEP 4 2012

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE MONSOON AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND...AND LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL ALSO VARY FROM DAY TO DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE MONSOON MADNESS WILL CONTINUE A THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOMETIMES LATE NIGHT...JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF AZ WAS WET...AND FROM OUR
CRITERIA...BORDERLINE EXCESSIVELY WET. NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST
ANOTHER SLUG OF HIGHER MOISTURE...FROM OFF THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA...TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HARD TO TIME AREAS OF
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PRETTY MUCH CALLS FOR A BROAD BRUSH
FORECAST OF A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU FACTOR IN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND
GRAVITY WAVES.  THE 1.30 INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT IN EAST
PHOENIX...VICINITY OF APACHE JUNCTION BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM...
DEVELOPED FROM A GRAVITY WAVE INITIATED FROM THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
TUCSON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE METRO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH 02Z AT ALL SITES. WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE PHX/IWA TAFS BUT COULD SEE TSRA AT KSDL
BEFORE 02Z. NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE TO WARRANT
TSRA/VCTS INCLUSION IN PHX/IWA BUT THIS COULD CHANGE...STAY TUNED.
OTHERWISE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STORMS DEVELOPING ALL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ALTHOUGH BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT BLH FROM 00Z-03Z. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT BLH BUT OMIT FROM IPL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 23Z. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
CONTINUED MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST AND RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
528 AM MST TUE SEP 4 2012

AZZ021>024-026>028-051300-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS-SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
528 AM MST TUE SEP 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
45 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND
WASHES...PATCHY DENSE BLOWING DUST AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND
WASHES...PATCHY DENSE BLOWING DUST AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AZZ020-025-CAZ030>033-051300-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
528 AM MST TUE SEP 4 2012 /528 AM PDT TUE SEP 4 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...PATCHY DENSE BLOWING DUST OR
SAND AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY WEATHER
HAZARDS INCLUDE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND
WASHES...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...PATCHY DENSE BLOWING DUST
AND SAND AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
517 PM MST TUE SEP 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E SAN CARLOS          33.35N 110.45W
09/04/2012                   GILA               AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE PEOPLE BEING RESCUED DUE TO HIGH WATER ALONG
            SR 170 IN SAN CARLOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1200307

LEINS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 PM MST TUE SEP 4 2012

AZZ023-050115-
MARICOPA AZ-
525 PM MST TUE SEP 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 615 PM MST

AT 517 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PIESTEWA PEAK PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   PAPAGO PARK...
   ARIZONA STATE FAIRGROUNDS AND  ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY...
   SKY HARBOR AIRPORT...
   DOWNTOWN PHOENIX...
   TEMPE...
   ARIZONA MILLS MALL...
   SOUTH PHOENIX AND  LAVEEN...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME ROADS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN HEAVY RAINFALL SLOW DOWN TO
REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING...AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN
YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF STORMS APPROACH
YOUR LOCATION OR YOU HEAR THUNDER...MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR
AN ALL METAL VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3366 11183 3332 11195 3338 11223 3373 11206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 018DEG 10KT 3352 11204

WATERS

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