Blowing Dust Advisory 35, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1108 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS
OF EXCESSIVE HEAT. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE
REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL THREAT OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE ALREADY KNOCKED THE PHOENIX METRO BELOW
CRITERIA. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH A PORTION OF
TOMORROW LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA REALIZED TOMORROW. FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED OTHERWISE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A HUGE MCS OVER SONORA MEXICO THIS
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12/GFS 925-850MB STREAMLINES SUGGEST MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS OF ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL SERVE TO IMPORT MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY
NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME/THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPS/HEAT WAVE THAT
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 9 DAYS...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES OF COOLING CWA-WIDE WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM 107-110 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
TWC 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST OVER ONE INCH...
THE TREND OVER THE LAST 12-18 HOURS HAS BEEN A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND SOME
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. TAKING ALL THIS INTO CONSIDERATION...
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MIGHT NOT BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE ONCOMING SHIFT TO MAKE A DETERMINATION.

AS WITH YESTERDAY EVENING...THERE WAS LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SO...THE
FOCUS IS ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING WILL BE DICTATED BY WEAK
BOUNDARY INTERACTION FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO
RING THE CENTRAL DESERTS OF MARICOPA COUNTY/GREATER PHOENIX AREA.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS/UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME GUSTY WINDS/BLOWING DUST...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE MOVING/COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.

ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THE SHORT TERM. OTHER
THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF NOT CONTINUING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
WEDNESDAY AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES
JUST BARELY SUPPORT ANOTHER EXCESSIVE HEAT DAY WEDNESDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THEREFORE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE AREA...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING AND ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS ALOFT IN SOUTHERN CA
WILL PROBABLY KILL ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD...WITH
ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE AREA.

&&

 .AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...THROUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL AROUND 09Z. THIS COULD FORCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30KTS FOR A SHORT TIME...AND VISIBILITY AT
KIWA/KPHX COULD POSSIBLY DROP DOWN TO 2-3 SM IN BLOWING DUST.
OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS FROM 09Z THROUGH
19Z WED WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12KFT.

SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FROM 06Z THROUGH 19Z WED...SCT CLOUD DECKS AOA 15KFT WITH LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AREAS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE TWENTIES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT AND CLOSER TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/MEYERS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1032 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2012

AZZ023-150615-
MARICOPA AZ-
1032 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 1115 PM MST

AT 1029 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PHOENIX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   PIESTEWA PEAK PARK...
   CAMELBACK MOUNTAIN...
   PARADISE VALLEY...

LAT...LON 3366 11199 3351 11187 3344 11210 3355 11217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 242DEG 6KT 3354 11204

MO