Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
205 PM MDT WED AUG 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS PULLING A WELL
DEFINED PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS ARRE DEVELOPING OVER NE NV
AND MOVING NORTH. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO ID ON THU...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED. TSTM COVERAGE ON THU SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLD.
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE PLENTIFUL ON FRI...SO EXPECTING TSTM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE GETS FLATTENED ON SATURDAY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAC
NW. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ISOLD MTN TSTMS...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO SW CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS.  LOOK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR KBYI AND KSUN.  EXPECT OUTFLOW WINDS IN OR AROUND THUNDERSTORMS
UP TO 40 MPH.  ONGOING WILDFIRES WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SMOKE
POTENTIALLY LIMITING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 6 MILES ONCE AGAIN FOR
KSUN AND PERHAPS KBYI. WYATT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO SW CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. THUS...THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
THESE REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. A PACIFIC
TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT.  LOOK FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY
BRINGING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE SHOWING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
IDZ409-411-412-475>477.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
401 AM MDT WED AUG 8 2012

IDZ017>025-031-032-091000-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
401 AM MDT WED AUG 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
411...475....476 AND 477 FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
615 PM MDT WED AUG 8 2012

IDZ019>021-023-090100-
JEFFERSON ID-BINGHAM ID-BUTTE ID-BONNEVILLE ID-MADISON ID-FREMONT ID-
615 PM MDT WED AUG 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BUTTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IDAHO
  SOUTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY IN EASTERN IDAHO
  MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHWESTERN BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  EASTERN BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 700 PM MDT

AT 608 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
PLANO TO IDAHO FALLS TO SOUTHEAST INL..AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   REXBURG...
   SUGAR CITY...
   IDAHO FALLS AND
   RIGBY...
   SHELLEY...
   POPLAR...
   ROSE...
   FORT HALL LINCOLN CREEK LODGE...
   BLACKFOOT...
   MORELAND...

LAT...LON 4365 11142 4305 11187 4315 11248 4370 11276
      4357 11221 4402 11185
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 333DEG 26KT 4386 11184 4344 11214
          4358 11258

JKEYES