Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
108 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. AFTERNOON/EVE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY...MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. THE RIDGE GETS KNOCKED DOWN A LITTLE OVER TTHE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WED...FORCING THE MONSOON MOISTURE MORE TO THE
EAST. THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON WED. AS
AN UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY TO THE CA/OR COAST ON FRI...THE UPPER
FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL AGAIN
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO ID...RESULTING IN ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. AFTN TEMPS MAY FALL BACK A
COUPLE OF DEGREES THRU THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...
BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGH TOMORROW. MOST STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH
A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN ESPECIALLY DUE TO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDING AND POPPING UP NEW ACTIVITY. THE
OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPVALLEY/DOWNVALLEY FLOW BUT BECOME OVERALL WESTERLY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. FOR FOLKS FLYING INTO KSUN FOR THE
FLY-IN...EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST VCTS IN THE COMING DAYS ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER STRONG DOWNVALLEY AT NIGHT BECOMING LIGHT UPVALLEY DURING
THE DAY...UNLESS INTERRUPTED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGHEST THREAT REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFING. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF 476 REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF
STORMS GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THURSDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO IDAHO. FOR TOMORROW WE ARE EXPECTING THE HIGHEST THREAT
ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER NEAR PLACES LIKE LEMHI COUNTY...MONIDA AND
ISLAND PARK WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. RIGHT NOW...THE
THINKING IS WHERE THE CRITICAL FUELS ARE IN THOSE AREAS THE THREAT
WILL BE TOO LOW FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND MAKE CHANGES IF NECESSARY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN. WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT SLOWING DECREASING...THE STORM MODE
WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD DRY VERSUS THE MIX WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. HAINES
INDICES SHOULD REMAIN AT 5 FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ476.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
328 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012

IDZ017>025-031-032-100930-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
328 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE STORMS MAY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SOME AREAS OVER THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100
DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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