Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
131 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP SLOWLY WARM UP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY
OF 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S/80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. DO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS PUSHING TO AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 BY
TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
IN THE COMING DAYS...THE AREAS WHERE WE CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A BIT. THE BEST CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOWER
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN IDAHO. FOR MONDAY...HIGHER CHANCES WILL STAY
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND BE SMALL ONCE AGAIN FOR EASTERN AREAS. WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT A MIX OF WET AND DRY MODES. THAT WILL
ALSO MEAN A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS
SOME SMALL HAIL.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO SHOW
UP WHICH WOULD MAKE SOME DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER SITUATION. FOR TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE
GETTING PUSHED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO TURN THE FLOW TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. THE NAM IS
A BIT MORE GENEROUS WITH STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS PRETTY
LIMITED AND ECMWF IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL LOCATION FOR TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED. THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER IN
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THAT SOLUTION BASICALLY CUTS OFF ALL MOISTURE
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
KEEPS THE DOOR OPEN FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
IDAHO AND KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WITHOUT ANY CLEAR
TREND TO KEY ON...WE ARE KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THAT
WILL SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS AT THE 90-95
DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD PUT A
LOT MORE LOWER VALLEY AREAS AT OR ABOVE 100.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW -TSRA HAVE POPPED UP...BUT SO FAR KEEPING AWAY
FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE AIRDROMES.  HAVE LEFT VCTS IN FOR
THOSE WITH BEST CHANCE OF NEARBY TS ACTIVITY.  DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION...SO BELIEVE IT WILL SUBSIDE AFTER CIVIL
TWILIGHT...AROUND 2200 LOCAL OR SO.  LIGHT WIND CONTINUES WITH
GROWING EASTERLY COMPONENT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD.
MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST STARTING...WILL LET RED
FLAG WARNING CONTINUE AT THIS POINT.  MAIN FOCUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SNAKE RIVER...BUT EVEN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS ARE GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY.  FOR
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INSTABILITY LESSENING AS HIGH BUILDS
WESTWARD.  ALSO...LESS MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.  LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY BEYOND THE WIDELY SCATTERED LEVEL EXISTS ONLY AT ELEVATIONS
HIGHER THAN THE APPROXIMATE 6000 FEET LEVEL OF CRITICAL FUELS...AND
THE ONLY LOCATIONS ARE IN THE EASTERN SALMON CHALLIS NF AND THE
TARGHEE PORTION OF THE C-T NF.  THUS...DO NOT SEE NEED FOR RED FLAG
WARNING ON SUN.  CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING WITH NO SERIOUS WIND
FOR ABOUT A WEEK.  MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT BELOW 6500 FEET FOR
IDZ411-413.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
IDZ410.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT BELOW 6000 FEET FOR
IDZ476-477.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
440 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012

IDZ017>025-031-032-081045-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
440 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. SEE OUR WEBSITE
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND 100 DEGREE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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