Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
129 PM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE MOST STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL...HEAVIER
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WINDS. WE WILL SEE STORMS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW STRAY STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
BOTH DAYS. FOR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SMALL SURGE OF MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...WE RAISED THEM FROM AROUND ISLAND PARK SOUTHWARD
TOWARD BEAR LAKE AND PRESTON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALOFT SO WE
EXPECTING STORMS TO BE SLOW MOVING WHICH ALSO WOULD INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RIDGE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS IT WILL
REMAIN WARM WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AS SOME MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE FRINGES OF THE
HIGH. WITH THIS PATTERN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS TO PUSH WELL
INTO THE 90S WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY HITTING 100-105.

FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK... THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD THE HIGH BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH AND/OR EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. THERE ARE NOW SOME HIGH
DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING PUSHED FARTHER EAST...WHICH
IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BETTER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO
EASTERN IDAHO. THE ECMWF SUPPRESSES IT MORE SOUTHWARD...WHICH
WOULD ACTUALLY DRIES THINGS OUT AND ACTUALLY COULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...WE
WILL FOLLOW THE FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOWED COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE GFS WAS
SHOWING US. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...-TSRA THREAT TONIGHT LIMITED TO WESTERN AIRDROMES WITH
BEST INSTABILITY NEAR KBYI.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWING TWIN FALLS COUNTY
WITH DEVELOPING CELLS AND LIGHTNING.  -TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER
BY 07/0300Z AS DAYS HEATING ENDS AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.  MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WHERE EXPECTED TODAY AND
MOVING NORTHWARD...POTENTIALLY INTO THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY.  SO
WILL KEEP RED FLAG GOING FOR TONIGHT.  HAVE ALSO ISSUED RED FLAG FOR
SAT BASED ON WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS.  THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NEVER QUITE LEAVES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF AND NORTHERN SAWTOOTH.  HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE IDAHO FALLS BLM LAND...INCLUDING TETON
VALLEY...WILL ALSO BE AT RISK OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
CONCENTRATIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WIND WILL STAY LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT HUMIDITY TO DRY OUT
AND FOR A GENERAL WARM UP AS CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS.  MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ409-412.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT BELOW 6500 FEET FOR IDZ411-413.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR IDZ410.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ476-477.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT BELOW 6000 FEET FOR IDZ476-477.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
247 AM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012

IDZ017>025-031-032-070900-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
247 AM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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