Coastal Flood Watch 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

188 
WHUS41 KPHI 060838
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY.

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-062200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.A.0002.121107T1600Z-121108T1300Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
338 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG 
  DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE 
  TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WATER 
  LEVELS MAY NOT RECEDE MUCH BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH TIDES.

* AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS 
  AT 118 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 
  8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 212 
  AM THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE 
  MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT SEASIDE HEIGHTS... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS 
  AT 1248 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL 7.0 TO 7.5 
  FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 142 AM 
  THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE 
  MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT ATLANTIC CITY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS 
  AT 101 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 
  FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 157 AM 
  THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE 
  MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT CAPE MAY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 135 
  PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 8.0 TO 8.5 FEET 
  ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 231 AM 
  THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE 
  MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT BREAKWATER HARBOR... DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY) HIGH TIDE 
  OCCURS AT 221 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 
  7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 302 
  AM THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET 
  ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT REHOBOTH BEACH... DELAWARE (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 
  133 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET 
  ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 207 AM 
  THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET 
  ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS... ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG 
  RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG THE COAST ARE 
  EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON 
  DELAWARE BAY SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL MINOR TO 
  MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE ELEVATED TIDES WILL 
  HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON RECOVERY EFFORTS. THE TIDES AND THE 
  WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH 
  EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

181 
WHUS41 KPHI 061952
CFWPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
252 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-071200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.CF.A.0002.121107T1600Z-121108T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.W.0005.121107T1600Z-121108T1300Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
252 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 1100 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 800 AM
THURSDAY.

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG
  DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE
  TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WATER
  LEVELS MAY NOT RECEDE MUCH BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH TIDES.

* AT SANDY HOOK, NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
  118 PM WEDNESDAY, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET
  ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 212 AM THURSDAY,
  WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
  WATER.

* AT SEASIDE HEIGHTS, NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
  1248 PM WEDNESDAY, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET
  ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 142 AM THURSDAY,
  WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
  WATER.

* AT ATLANTIC CITY, NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
  101 PM WEDNESDAY, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE
  MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 157 AM THURSDAY, WITH
  A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT CAPE MAY, NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 135 PM
  WEDNESDAY, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 8.0 TO 8.5 FEET ABOVE
  MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 231 AM THURSDAY, WITH
  A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT BREAKWATER HARBOR, DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS
  AT 221 PM WEDNESDAY, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET
  ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 302 AM THURSDAY,
  WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER
  LOW WATER.

* AT REHOBOTH BEACH, DELAWARE (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
  133 PM WEDNESDAY, WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE
  MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 207 AM THURSDAY, WITH
  A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
  WATER.

* HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS, ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG
  RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG THE COAST ARE
  EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON
  DELAWARE BAY SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL MINOR TO
  MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE ELEVATED TIDES WILL
  HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON RECOVERY EFFORTS. THE TIDES AND THE
  WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH
  EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING
IS IMMINENT. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE
RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER
AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED, LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY, PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-071200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0023.121107T2100Z-121108T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
252 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 400 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 1000
AM THURSDAY.

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS
  TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE
  TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
  EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE WORKS ITS WAY UP THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER
  BETWEEN ABOUT 400 PM AND 900 PM ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN BETWEEN
  AROUND 500 AM AND 1000 AM ON THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY, THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED, LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA AND BUILD TO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO TUESDAY. A NOR'EASTER WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS. IT PRESENTLY
IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN MOVE OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY AND ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOUDS CONTINUED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD LAST NIGHT AND
MAINTAINED TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ITS
WAKE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
MODELS SHOW A GOOD 850MB CAA PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM REACHING THE
50F MARK, AT LEAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. DID HAVE TO
MAKE MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

CURRENTLY A STEEP INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 825MB (SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS) WILL KEEP OUR SKIES OVERCAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE CAA SHOT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THIS
LAYER AND DRIER AIR WILL SINK INTO THE REGION TODAY. IT MAY TAKE
SEVERAL HOURS TO DO SO BUT BY THIS EVENING WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER RAIN FREE
DAY. DID HAVE TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS UP A TOUCH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS UPDATE. HOWEVER WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE CLOUDS BREAK UP
SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CONTINUAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALMOST OVERHEAD. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THIS WILL AFFECT US ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE WE ARE EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. USED
A BLEND OF THE MAV/METMOS WHICH TAKES MOST AREAS DOWN INTO THE
MID-20S. THE ONE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WOULD BE IF THE
WINDS DO NOT FULLY DECOUPLE AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE 8-10 KNOTS.
DO FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE THAT
TIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE MODELS' HANDLING OF THE MAIN EVENT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD, THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NOR'EASTER THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN FELL IN NICELY WITH ITS
PREVIOUS FOUR RUNS. A MEAN TRACK OF THE FIVE OPERATIONAL RUNS
SINCE 00Z/3 PUTS THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF HAT AT 12Z WED, ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF WAL AT 00Z THU, ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF LEWES AT 12Z
THURSDAY, ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF POINT PLEASANT AT 00Z FRIDAY,
AND ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MVY AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN GENERALLY ARE RUNNING A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THAT, BUT THEY ARE IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. THE NAM HAS LOST THE WEAK LOW SOLUTION THAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT, AND IS NOW ABOUT AS STRONG WITH THE LOW AS THE CANADIAN
(THE DEEPEST SOLUTION). THE NAM IS, HOWEVER, FASTER AND FURTHER
EAST, AND IT RESEMBLES THE UKMET. THIS PACKAGE FAVORS THE MEAN
ECMWF TRACK, WHICH REALLY IS ONLY A BIT FURTHER WEST AND INITIALLY
FASTER THAN THE TRACK THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER USED.

THE SYSTEM CARRIES WITH IT A FAIR JET ALOFT, A FAIR TROWAL, AND
DECENT MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE, LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS,
AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K SURFACE. DESPITE THE TROWAL
REACHING INTO OUR AREA, P-WATER VALUES RANGE ONLY FROM 0.5 TO 1.0
INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST. THE LOWER LEVEL
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPING. P-TYPE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO START AND END AS SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
(WHICH BECOMES MORE MARITIME IN NATURE WITH TIME) PUSHING AGAINST
THE LOW FROM THE NORTH IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE CONTINENTAL
HIGH PUSHING AGAINST THE LOW FROM THE WEST, WHILE THE PRESENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW TAKES IT FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR NORTHERN
THAN SOUTHERN ZONES.

TAKE THE FOLLOWING WITH THIS CAVEAT: THIS FORECAST IS EPHEMERAL,
BECAUSE THE EVENT IS ABOUT TWO FULL DAYS AWAY AND MODEL AGREEMENT IS
NOT YET EXCELLENT (IN FACT, THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT DEAL OF VARIANCE
WITHIN MOST OF THE FIVE MAJOR MODELS).

THE ABOVE RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
AND A PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY LESS ROBUST SNOW FORECAST. IT STILL
RESULTS IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER LOCATIONS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME WARNING LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE; IT RESULTS IN ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IT
RESULTS IN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WITH LESSER AMOUNTS WEST (ALL OF WHICH WOULD NOT CREATE A
MAJOR INLAND FLOODING CONCERN).

SEPARATE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS PRECEDE AND FOLLOW THE NOR'EASTER.
THE FORMER KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THE LATTER ALLOWS THEM
TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT OUR TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
WE CONTINUE TO KEEP THE OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-4000FT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BY MID TO LATE MORNING WE SHOULD START
TO SEE DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE OVERCAST
DECK WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT
EVENTUALLY BECOMING CLEAR BY THE EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
BETWEEN 8-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE A
BIT IN THE LATE MORNING TIME PERIOD...AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS AT SOME OF OUR TERMINALS BUT
WITH THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS DID NOT ADD THEM IN. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY CREEP MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH LATE IN THE CYCLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH ARE LIKELY. STRENGTHENING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
MOST WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

THURSDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR.
BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PLAIN AIRPORTS.
STRONG NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT
BEING SAID WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE IMPULSE MORE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL BE USHERED ACROSS OUR
WATERS WHICH WILL HELP WITH VERTICAL MIXING, THEREFORE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD RELAX A BIT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4 FEET
OFFSHORE AND AROUND 2-3 FEET CLOSER TO THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A NOR'EASTER WILL
CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. GALES ARE
LIKELY AND STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS OR WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS THEN FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT (MAYBE JUST GALES ON
THE OCEAN) AND FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOLID MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE OCEANFRONT AND BACK BAYS.
IF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW ENOUGH, THEN AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
EVENTUALLY WOULD MAKE IT UP DELAWARE BAY, THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER
AND (LASTLY) CHESAPEAKE BAY. AS WAS NOTED BEFORE, WE ARE CONCERNED
MAINLY ABOUT THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE, BUT IF THE SYSTEM ENDS
UP BEING SLOW, THEN THE THURSDAY HIGH TIDE WOULD BECOME QUITE
PROBLEMATIC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
538 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012

NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-061045-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
538 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
AFFECT OUR REGION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE
POCONOS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-061045-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
538 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
AFFECT OUR REGION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND TIDAL
FLOODING. THE EXTENT OF TIDAL FLOODING DEPENDS UPON HOW QUICKLY
THE LOW PASSES BY THE COAST. A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WOULD MEAN
GREATER TIDAL FLOODING. PLEASE BE AWARE THAT STRUCTURES OR TREES
THAT HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED BY SANDY WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO FURTHER
DAMAGE FROM THIS NOR'EASTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-061045-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
538 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
AFFECT OUR REGION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TO AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVELS, HEAVY RAIN AND SOLID MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING. PLEASE BE
AWARE THAT STRUCTURES OR TREES THAT HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED BY SANDY
WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO FURTHER DAMAGE FROM THIS NOR'EASTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-450>455-061045-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
538 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NOR'EASTER TO AFFECT OUR WATERS AROUND
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GALE FORCE OR STRONGER WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-061515-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
953 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE CENTERS
FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION (CDC):

IN THE WAKE OF SANDY...IT IS IMPORTANT FOR CITIZENS TO REMEMBER
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND HEALTH AND THAT
OF YOUR FAMILY:

* DRINK CLEAN...SAFE WATER AND EAT SAFE...UNCONTAMINATED FOOD.

* KEEP GENERATORS OUTSIDE AT LEAST 25 FT FROM DOORS...WINDOWS AND
  VENTS.

* DO NOT GRILL INSIDE YOUR HOME...THE FUMES CAN KILL.

* NEVER TOUCH A DOWNED POWER LINE OR ANYTHING TOUCHING ONE.

* USE 1 CUP OF BLEACH FOR EACH GALLON OF WATER TO REMOVE MOLD.

* NEVER MIX BLEACH AND AMMONIA...THE FUMES CAN KILL.

* WASHING YOUR HANDS PREVENTS ILLNESS.

* SEEK HELP IF HAVING TROUBLE COPING.

FOR MORE LIFE SAVING HEALTH RELATED INFORMATION CALL THE CDC AT
800-232-4636...TTY 888-232-6348. HTTP://EMERGENCY.CDC.GOV/DISASTERS/

GAINES