Coastal Flood Advisory 7, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

502 
WHUS41 KPHI 011113
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
713 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-020200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.120601T2100Z-120602T0200Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
713 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE... 
  INCLUDING RARITAN BAY AND DELAWARE BAY. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE 
  TIME OF THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ON THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT
  OCCURS BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM. HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS...
  ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE
  HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO
  5 FEET THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-020500-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.120602T0000Z-120602T0500Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
713 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE 
  TIME OF TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE WORKS ITS WAY UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER 
  FROM ABOUT 900 PM UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

IOVINO/MPD

590 
WHUS41 KPHI 020233
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1033 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-020500-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120602T0500Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1033 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE 
  TIME OF TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE WORKS ITS WAY UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER
  THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

686 
WHUS41 KPHI 020339
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1139 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-021200-
/O.EXB.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120602T1200Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
1139 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* LOCATION...THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF CAMBRIDGE.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE TIME
  OF HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-020500-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120602T0500Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1139 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE 
  TIME OF TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE WORKS ITS WAY UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER 
  THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

207 
WHUS41 KPHI 020500
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-020600-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120602T0500Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
100 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING HAD OCCURRED AND THE HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED.

$$

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-021200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120602T1200Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
100 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATION...THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF CAMBRIDGE.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE TIME
  OF HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

386 
WHUS41 KPHI 020747
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-021200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120602T1200Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
347 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATION...THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF CAMBRIDGE.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 
  TIME OF HIGH TIDE. 

* TIMING...THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

531 
WHUS41 KPHI 021032
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-021145-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120602T1200Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
632 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THE HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED AND THE WATER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE, THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY. AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES WELL TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES
WILL ROTATE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPING NEAR THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY TRY AND
BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 330 AM, THE SKY OVER OUR REGION WAS MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WIND WAS
LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THERE
WAS AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE WAS ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG
OVER THE MIDDLE DELMARVA.

AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND BEGINS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING,
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG MAY
SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE ONSHORE AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. THEY SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE DECELERATING BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE DELMARVA AROUND 200 AM AND NEW JERSEY
AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BE PRECEDED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL FROM ABOUT 900 PM UNTIL 300 AM. THE FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY SO SOME SORT OF FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT
IN THOSE AREAS. BEING THAT THERE WOULD BE NO PROBLEMS UNTIL TONIGHT,
WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THE TREND
TOWARD HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES.

WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A READING, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTIC CITY LINE UNDER THEIR
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DESIGNATION. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THOSE AREAS WOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A LARGE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
TO OUR EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS IT OCCLUDES. THE OCCLUSION SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ACTING AS A BLOCK FOR AWHILE, THEREFORE THE GREAT
LAKES ONE SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURES, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH THE DETAILS.
THIS INVOLVES THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW
ESPECIALLY AS IT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, AND ALSO THE CORE OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND WHERE THAT ACTUALLY TRACKS. THERE MAY BE AT LEAST ONE
SURFACE LOW THAT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC, HOWEVER
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
INCREASED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS ATTM APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS STRONGER FEATURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FEATURES
WILL HELP DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. OVERALL, THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AT
TIMES AND COOLER, ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
WEST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD HELP TO PUSH OUR CLOSED LOW
FARTHER AWAY AND ALSO WEAKEN IT WITH TIME.

FOR SATURDAY, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT OR
PART OF THE OCCLUDING FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IT, THEREFORE HELD ONTO SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR A
TIME IN THE MORNING /STARTING AT 12Z/. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
HEATING TO ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN A DECENT
AMOUNT. THIS COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR DEEPER MIXING AND PERHAPS A BREEZY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AT NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE MIXING
DEPTH DECREASES. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS TO MOVE OVERHEAD
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION IS
BETWEEN FORCING THEREFORE A DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHILE NOT LOOKING LIKE A WASHOUT THERE
WILL BE TIMES WHEN IT WILL BE UNSETTLED. OVERALL, THE CLOSED LOW
SETTING UP SHOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALSO FEATURE A
SURFACE LOW IN THE SAME VICINITY. OUR REGION TENDS TO BECOME LOCATED
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL
BE PRESENT. THERE APPEARS TO BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR SELF-DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE EACH DAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS COUPLED WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPENING QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY WITH EVEN AN INVERTED-V
TYPE SIGNATURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
INSTABILITY AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION.
UNLESS THERE IS A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDER, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TIED TO DAYTIME
HEATING. THEREFORE, THE HIGHER POPS /LOWER CHC RANGE/ WILL BE
CARRIED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE ALSO TRY TO
KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION TO THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL GIVEN GREATER
INSTABILITY. IF WE CAN GET SOME HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO
DEVELOP, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS POINT, THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING
SHOULD KEEP THINGS LESS ORGANIZED. A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WOULD BE IF THE CLOSED LOW EASES TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER, ALLOWING
ENERGY TO TOP A RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS THEN WOULD HELP MAINTAIN A
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND POSSIBLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SURFACE LOW TO
DROP DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SOMETIME
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, A MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWER THREAT LOOKS TO INCREASE. AS OF NOW, THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RAMPS UP A LEAD SHORT WAVE MUCH
MORE. FOR NOW, WE LEANED AGAINST THIS GIVEN LITTLE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS AND ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED
LOW. SOMETIMES THE GUIDANCE BREAKS DOWN THE CLOSED LOWS TO FAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY
STILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE MIDWEST WILL TRY AND BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AS SOME RIDGING
PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS TIME FRAME CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE AS THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL MAINLY DEPEND ON THE LINGERING TROUGH. WE
CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED CONTINUITY WITH SOME OF THE MOSGUIDE
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KACY AND AROUND KMIV EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE IMPROVEMENT IN
THOSE AREAS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY ALONG WITH A
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND.

FOR TONIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH PERIODS OF IFR
LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PERHAPS SUB-VFR AND SOME SHOWERS EARLY, THEN BECOMING
VFR WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH COULD LOCALLY
CAUSE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS
MONDAY, BECOMING NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH
COULD LOCALLY CAUSE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY AND GUSTS SHOULD
REACH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION OF 25 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT 400 PM.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. ONCE IT DOES, WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY DECREASE AS THE WIND DIRECTION VEERS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT OR OCCLUDED FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE CROSSING THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE WEST. THE FLOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
THE WINDS TO LOWER UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN SHAVED
BACK SOME. THE ADVISORY HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 18Z SATURDAY AS THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5
FEET BY THEN. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS MOSTLY
DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW THAT SETS UP SHOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS WE GO THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW MAY INCREASE SOME WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST, WE KEPT THEM GENERALLY UNDER 25 KNOTS FOR
NOW. THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH HOWEVER MAY BE ENOUGH TO BUILD THE SEAS
ON THE OCEAN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING ARE QUITE HIGH AS WE
APPROACH THE FULL MOON. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION THIS MORNING AND WE WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT OR AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

THE NEXT TIME FRAME OF CONCERN IS THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. WITH THE FULL MOON EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE ONLY
RUNNING NEAR TWO-TENTHS BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE
FLOW IS OFFSHORE SO THAT MAY BE IN OUR FAVOR TO START, BUT THE
SURFACE WINDS MAY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH THE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY, IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MODERATE ALONG
THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-
020815-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAIN COULD ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BUT BRIEF FLOODING. AT
THIS TIME, THE GREATER CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS DELAWARE AND MARYLAND TO PERHAPS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>003-NJZ012-013-016>023-027-PAZ070-071-020815-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAIN COULD ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BUT BRIEF FLOODING. AT
THIS TIME, THE GREATER CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS DELAWARE AND MARYLAND TO PERHAPS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES STARTING TONIGHT AS WE APPROACH THE FULL
MOON ON MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FULL MOON OCCURS ON
MONDAY, AND THE WINDS MAY TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-020815-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IN
ADDITION, HEAVY RAIN COULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED BUT BRIEF FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATER CHANCE
FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPEARS TO BE FOR AREAS INLAND.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES STARTING TONIGHT AS WE APPROACH THE FULL
MOON ON MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FULL MOON OCCURS ON
MONDAY, AND THE WINDS MAY TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-020815-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ021>025-011000-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...
ATLANTIC CITY
358 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...

AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE. THE FOG WAS REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO
LESS THAN A HALF MILE IN SPOTS.

IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING EARLY THIS MORNING, BE PREPARED FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY. BE SURE TO LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOUR
VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU.

IOVINO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
548 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ021>025-011200-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...
ATLANTIC CITY
548 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...

AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE. THE FOG WAS REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO
LESS THAN A HALF MILE IN SPOTS.

IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING EARLY THIS MORNING, BE PREPARED FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY. BE SURE TO LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOUR
VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU.

IOVINO