Alert archive / New Jersey / Coastal Flood Advisories in 2012

Coastal Flood Advisory 6, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

May 7, 2012Sussex County, Delaware; 6 counties in New Jersey

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this coastal flood advisory at May 7, 2012, 3:20 AM EDT for Sussex County, Delaware; 6 counties in New Jersey. It took effect at May 7, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 7, 2012, 3:20 AM EDT (07:20 UTC)
In effect from
May 7, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT
Expired
May 8, 2012, 12:18 AM EDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Counties Sussex County, DE, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2012-05-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2012-05-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 75 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1145 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

854 
WHUS41 KPHI 070720
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>024-027-071530-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0006.120508T0000Z-120508T0500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
320 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF LOWER DELAWARE BAY...ALONG THE 
  ATLANTIC OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY. THIS INCLUDES THE BACK BAYS 
  AND INLETS. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON THE OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY BETWEEN
  900 PM AND 1130 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK BAYS AND 
  THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR LATER.

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR
  FLOODING. SOME ROADWAYS MAY BE CLOSED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-070830-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120507T0800Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
320 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* LOCATION...UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE 
  DELAWARE RIVER. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE HAS OCCURRED...AND IT IS SLOWLY DRAINING FROM
  THE TIDAL SECTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR
  FLOODING. SOME ROADWAYS LIKE THE ADMIRAL WILSON BOULEVARD MAY
  EXPERIENCE FLOODING AROUND THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$
6 follow-up statements
595 
WHUS41 KPHI 070759
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-070900-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120507T0800Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
359 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

$$

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>024-027-071600-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0006.120508T0000Z-120508T0500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
359 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF LOWER DELAWARE BAY...ALONG THE 
  ATLANTIC OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY. THIS INCLUDES THE BACK BAYS 
  AND INLETS. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON THE OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY BETWEEN 
  900 PM AND 1130 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK BAYS AND THE LOWER 
  DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR LATER. 

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR 
  FLOODING. SOME ROADWAYS MAY BE CLOSED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH 
  TIDE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

MDZ012-015-019-071300-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.S.0008.120507T0759Z-120507T1300Z/
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
359 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

* LOCATION...THE EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
  AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS IN CAMBRIDGE AROUND 530 AM...AND HIGH
  TIDE OCCURS AT TOLCHESTER BEACH AROUND 825 AM.

* IMPACTS...AREAS MOST PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING MAY SEE SOME MINOR
  TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

$$

HAYES
763 
WHUS41 KPHI 070807
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

NJZ025-026-071615-
/O.EXA.KPHI.CF.Y.0006.120508T0000Z-120508T0500Z/
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
407 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF LOWER DELAWARE BAY...ALONG THE 
  ATLANTIC OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY. THIS INCLUDES THE BACK BAYS 
  AND INLETS. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON THE OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY BETWEEN 
  900 PM AND 1130 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK BAYS AND THE LOWER 
  DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR LATER. 

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR 
  FLOODING. SOME ROADWAYS MAY BE CLOSED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH 
  TIDE. 

* SEAS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>024-027-071615-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0006.120508T0000Z-120508T0500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
407 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF LOWER DELAWARE BAY...ALONG THE 
  ATLANTIC OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY. THIS INCLUDES THE BACK BAYS 
  AND INLETS. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON THE OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY BETWEEN 
  900 PM AND 1130 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK BAYS AND THE LOWER 
  DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR LATER. 

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR 
  FLOODING. SOME ROADWAYS MAY BE CLOSED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH 
  TIDE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

MDZ012-015-019-071300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0008.000000T0000Z-120507T1300Z/
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
407 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

* LOCATION...THE EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE 
  AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS IN CAMBRIDGE AROUND 530 AM...AND 
  HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT TOLCHESTER BEACH AROUND 825 AM. 

* IMPACTS...AREAS MOST PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING MAY SEE SOME 
  MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS 
  MORNING. 

* SEAS...

$$
551 
WHUS41 KPHI 070942
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-071745-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0006.120508T0000Z-120508T0500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
542 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF LOWER DELAWARE BAY...ALONG THE 
  ATLANTIC OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY. THIS INCLUDES THE BACK BAYS 
  AND INLETS. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON THE OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY BETWEEN 
  900 PM AND 1130 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK BAYS AND THE LOWER 
  DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR LATER. 

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR
  FLOODING. SOME ROADWAYS MAY BE CLOSED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
  TIDE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-071745-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.S.0009.120508T0400Z-120508T0800Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CUMBERLAND-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
542 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATION...CENTRAL AND UPPER DELAWARE BAY...AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
  PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.

* COASTAL FLOODING...SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
  AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT REEDY POINT DELAWARE AROUND 110 AM
  TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE IN PHILADELPHIA OCCURS AROUND 345 AM
  TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE MOST VULNERABLE COULD EXPERIENCE SPOTTY MINOR
  TIDAL FLOODING.

$$

MDZ012-015-019-071300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0008.000000T0000Z-120507T1300Z/
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
542 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE THIS MORNING...

* LOCATION...THE EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE 
  AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS IN CAMBRIDGE AROUND 530 AM...AND 
  HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT TOLCHESTER BEACH AROUND 825 AM. 

* IMPACTS...AREAS MOST PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING MAY SEE SOME MINOR
  TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. 

$$
077 
WHUS41 KPHI 071257
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
857 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

MDZ012-015-019-071400-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.S.0008.000000T0000Z-120507T1300Z/
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
857 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

THE WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE DURING THIS
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE REMAINED WELL UNDER MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

$$

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-072100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0006.120508T0000Z-120508T0500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
857 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON THE OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY BETWEEN 
  900 PM AND 1130 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK BAYS AND THE LOWER 
  DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR LATER. 

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR 
  FLOODING. SOME ROADWAYS MAY BE CLOSED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH 
  TIDE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-072100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0009.120508T0400Z-120508T0800Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CUMBERLAND-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
857 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT REEDY POINT DELAWARE AROUND 110 
  AM TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE IN PHILADELPHIA OCCURS AROUND 
  345 AM TUESDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES COULD EXPERIENCE SPOTTY
  MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

$$
856 
WHUS41 KPHI 071939
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-080500-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0006.120508T0000Z-120508T0500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
339 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON THE OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY BETWEEN 
  900 PM AND 1130 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK BAYS AND THE LOWER 
  DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR LATER. 

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR 
  FLOODING. SOME ROADWAYS MAY BE CLOSED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH 
  TIDE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

MDZ012-015-019-020-080500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.S.0010.120508T1000Z-120508T1400Z/
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
339 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE TUESDAY MORNING...
 
* LOCATION...ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL SECTIONS OF WATERWAYS
  THAT DRAIN INTO THE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDES TUESDAY MORNING OCCUR AT CAMBRIDGE AT 624
  AM AND AT TOLCHESTER BEACH AT 918 AM. 

* IMPACTS...THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES AND ROADWAYS COULD
  EXPERIENCE SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. 

$$
  
DEZ001-002-NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-080500-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0009.120508T0400Z-120508T0800Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CUMBERLAND-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
339 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...
 
* LOCATION...TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER AS WELL AS UPPER
  DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT REEDY POINT DELAWARE AROUND 110 
  AM TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE IN PHILADELPHIA OCCURS AROUND 
  345 AM TUESDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES AND ROADWAYS COULD
  EXPERIENCE SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

$$
142 
WHUS41 KPHI 080418
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1218 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-080530-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-120508T0500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1218 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THE EVENING HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED AND MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED.

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-080800-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0009.000000T0000Z-120508T0800Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CUMBERLAND-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1218 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* LOCATION...TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER AS WELL AS 
  UPPER DELAWARE BAY. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT REEDY POINT DELAWARE AROUND 110 
  AM TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE IN PHILADELPHIA OCCURS AROUND 
  345 AM TUESDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES AND ROADWAYS COULD 
  EXPERIENCE SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. 



$$

MDZ012-015-019-020-081230-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0010.120508T1000Z-120508T1400Z/
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
1218 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THIS MORNING...

* LOCATION...ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL SECTIONS OF 
  WATERWAYS THAT DRAIN INTO THE BAY. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDES TUESDAY MORNING OCCUR AT CAMBRIDGE AT 624 
  AM AND AT TOLCHESTER BEACH AT 918 AM. 

* IMPACTS...THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES AND ROADWAYS COULD 
  EXPERIENCE SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. 



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this coastal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood advisory went out at May 7, 12:04 AM EDT, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 12:04 AM EDT, 3 hours 16 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1204 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
RECENTER NEAR CAPE COD MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY TRAILING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
FORM ON THE FRONT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PROBABLY DOMINATE OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION GONE THE THINNING OF THE CLOUDS HAS
CONTINUED TO THE POINT WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE...THE SELF
DESTRUCTING SKY HAS ENDED. A FEW PATCHES OF BROKEN AND OVERCAST
SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA WITH THE FLOW BEING
DIRECTLY ONSHORE.

OTHERWISE, AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH AND BECOME
LOCATED MORE TO OUR EAST, LOW-LEVEL WAA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN ORGANIZING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS AIMED TOWARD OUR AREA LATE. THERE IS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
ARRIVING AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A WING OF WAA INDUCED SHOWERS
STRETCHING TOWARD OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY DAYBREAK. THIS AND THE
FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY SHOULD RESULT IN THE REMAINING LOWER
CLOUDS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
DURING THE NIGHT. WE THEREFORE INDICATED A BIT MORE THINNING FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING THE CLOUDS AGAIN. WE HIT THIS
HARDER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING WAA AND SOME WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ELSEWHERE, SOME
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT, WE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW AS ANY REDUCTIONS MAY NOT BE LOW
ENOUGH FOR ANY REAL IMPACT. IF WE CAN GET THE CLOUD BASES LOW
ENOUGH ALONG WITH THE DRYING ALOFT, PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE OCCURS
HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE THIS OUT BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, PROBABLY A BETTER CHC ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WITH SOME
HELP FROM THE WEAK SOUTH- SOUTHEAST FLOW.

BASED ON THE INCOMING WAA LATE ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT, WE
BROUGHT IN A SPRINKLE CHC ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THAT
TRANSITION TO LOW CHC POPS FROM ABOUT 12Z ON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
WE MOSTLY TOOK AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NOT TO FAR TO OUR EAST DURING THE DAY WILL
RESULT IN THE FLOW BEING SOUTHERLY INSTEAD OF EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN ANY LOWER CLOUDS LIFTING A BIT FASTER, ALTHOUGH A
WARM FRONT NEARBY AS IF LIFTS NORTHWARD MAY HELP TO INDUCE SOME
SPRINKLES OR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WE THEREFORE
SLID THE LOWER CHC POPS AND SPRINKLE CHC GRADUALLY EASTWARD A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WAS KEPT DRY.

SINCE THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL WAA IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST,
THE TIGHTENING 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERN FLOW
MAY RESULT IN SOME MOISTURE POOLING. THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD THE MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA A BIT DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST, ANY
SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD BE HELD FROM OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES ON WESTWARD. MAY NEED TO
WATCH FOR SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS THOUGH AS THERE HAS BEEN
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ROLLING EASTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, DESPITE THE FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND
AND THE VERTICAL MIXING LOOKS LIMITED. THE MAIN WAA IS AIMED TO OUR
WEST, THEREFORE THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK TO MODERATE A GREAT DEAL.
THEREFORE WE MOSTLY USED A MOS BLEND APPROACH WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS 6 DAY PERIOD.

500MB: A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD
BRIEFLY SHARPEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW TO FOLLOW NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...WAA SHOULD DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW PTN
OF THE FCST AREA. BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE 09Z SREF.
DOESNT LOOK TOO BIG FOR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SHOWERS IN THE FCST BUT COULD HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
BIAS AND COULD END UP A NICE DAY WITH A GUSTY SSW WIND 20 TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTN.

WE SAW THE EARLY MORNING SWODY3. IT COULD VERIFY NICELY. AT THIS
POINT AM INCLINED TO THINK TSTMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
TUE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE N PTN OF THE FCST AREA ASSTD WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SW 850 AND 700 MB JET OF 40 TO 45 KT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD AHEAD AND ALONG THE ADVANCING COOL FRONT...
TIMING UNCERTAINTY. THUNDER AS NOTED IN THE ABOVE PGH FOR TUE
NIGHT. WED...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER BUT ITS GENERALLY NOT
HIT AS HARD IN THE GRIDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...DOES THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SHARPEN ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DEVELOP A NEW BAROCLINIC LEAF FOR
US ALONG WITH RAIN. ITS POSSIBLE MOST OF ANY RAIN OCCURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE SAW THE UKMET WITH ITS CLOSED LOW...BUT FOR NOW DETAILS
ARE VERY UNCLEAR REGARDING DEVELOPMENTS WED NIGHT/THU. PLAYED IT
OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...PROBABLY A CLEARING TREND IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT-NEXT WEEKEND...HPC DRY POPS AND WHAT SHOULD BE A DECENT
WEATHER PATTERN...DRY AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THOUGH SOME PLACES HAVE LOST THEIR WINDS, ENOUGH MIXING TOOK PLACE
PRIOR TO SUNSET TO ALLOW THE LOWER, MVFR, CEILINGS TO ERODE. WITH
THE WINDS VEERING A BIT LATE TONIGHT, MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO OUR TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS, RDG AND ABE, MAY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS AND
CIGS BEFORE DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS THAT A FEW SOLID HOURS
OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND COULD PRODUCE RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR CIGS...
MAINLY NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR.

TUESDAY...GUSTY S WINDS 20 KT TO POSSIBLY 30 KT AND VFR CIGS.
CONDS PROBABLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS TUE NIGHT.
GREATEST CHC OF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE IN NE PA/NNJ.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BUT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM.

THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT JUST TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, AS A WARM FRONT ORGANIZES MAINLY TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE WATERS. THE SOMEWHAT TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN
PUSHED TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES CLOSER, THEREFORE THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. ANY SLIGHT GUSTINESS IN
THE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY. THE SEAS ON DELAWARE BAY MAY BUILD A
BIT ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER PART LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES A LITTLE UP THE BAY. OVERALL, THE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA. BY
TUESDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IS
POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN A SSW FLOW WITH SLY
GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TUE AFTN AND NIGHT.

SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE THU WITH ATLC SEAS ARD 5 OR 6 FT AND THEN A
CHANCE OF NW WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS IF A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF NJ.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON FCST DETAILS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIGEAN FULL
MOON WILL MAXIMIZE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING (ON CHESAPEAKE BAY). THE MDL GUIDANCE (VS STEVENS
AND THE OFS) VERIFIED THE BEST LAST NIGHT AND IS THE MOST BULLISH
WITH DELAWARE BAY, RARITAN BAY AND THE OCEAN SIDE REACHING MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGHEST DEPARTURES TODAY
(CURRENTLY AROUND HALF A FOOT) WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHERE THE
STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT EXISTS. THAT BEING SAID WE ARE
GOING TO MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY GOING GIVEN WE ONLY
NEED ABOUT A QUARTER OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL DEPARTURES IN LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AND THE COAST TO REACH IT. BECAUSE THE GRADIENT IS
SUPPOSE TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, OVERALL TIDE HEIGHT VALUES WILL
LIKELY COME PRETTY CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT'S LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE UP DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER, CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH. THE CURRENT REEDY DEPARTURE WOULD GET THEM THERE,
BUT PHL WOULD NOT. PHL NEEDS LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF A FOOT
DEPARTURE TO REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IN DELAWARE BAY, WE WILL KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.

AS FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY, THE CBOFS GUIDANCE DID VERIFY TOO HOT WITH
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY REMOVE ANY
CONCERNS ABOUT THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY ON MONDAY MORNING. ON THE
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY WE SHOULD COME CLOSER. FEELING IS WITH THE
GRADIENT FORECAST TO WEAKEN THEY SHOULD FALL SHORT. NO HEADLINES
WILL BE ISSUED. WE WILL MENTION THE CHANCE IN THE HWO.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES START TO COME DOWN LATER MONDAY, BUT NOT BY
MUCH. THE FLOW DOES BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD HELP ON THE
OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY, MAYBE NOT SO MUCH FOR THE OTHER BAYS. MENTION
WILL BE CONTINUED IN THE HWO. AFTER THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE
RUNS ITS COURSE, THERE IS MORE OF A DROP IN THE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE CYCLE COME TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI
Hazardous weather outlook, May 7, 12:29 AM EDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1229 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

DEZ002>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>014-020>027-080430-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1229 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HIGH
TIDE LATER TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-080430-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
1229 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE LATER TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-080430-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
1229 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-080430-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1229 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 7, 5:42 AM EDTCoastal Flood StatementPHIKent, New Castle22 hr
May 7, 3:27 AM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryPHI4 days

Nearby

Coastal Flood Advisories in New Jersey, 2012Coastal Flood Advisories in Delaware, 2012Every coastal flood advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.