Coastal Flood Advisory 4, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

191 
WHUS41 KPHI 051556
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-052100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0004.120505T2200Z-120506T0300Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...HIGH TIDES ON THE OCEAN AND RARITAN BAY WILL OCCUR
  BETWEEN 700 PM AND 900 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK BAYS AND THE
  LOWER DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR LATER.

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR 
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY, THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED, LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-052100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0004.120506T0300Z-120506T0700Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 1100 PM AND 100 AM.

* IMPACTS....AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR 
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY, THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED, LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

741 
WHUS41 KPHI 051919
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-060330-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0004.120506T0200Z-120506T0700Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
319 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 100 AM.

* IMPACTS....AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR 
  FLOODING. 

* OUTLOOK...WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THIS SPRING
  TIDE CYCLE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT, ITS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
  THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY EVENING
  WITH A REPEAT CHANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER
  STATEMENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-060300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0004.120505T2200Z-120506T0300Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
319 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
 
* TIMING...HIGH TIDES ON THE OCEAN. LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND RARITAN
  BAY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 700 PM AND 900 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK
  BAYS AND UPPER REACHES OF THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR
  LATER.

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL SEE MINOR
  FLOODING. SOME ROADWAYS COULD BE CLOSED AT HIGH TIDE.

* OUTLOOK...WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THIS SPRING
  TIDE CYCLE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EVENING, ITS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
  THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY
  EVENING WITH A REPEAT CHANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE LOOK FOR
  FURTHER STATEMENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

 
&&

$$

985 
WHUS41 KPHI 060055
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
855 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-060300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120506T0300Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
855 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...HIGH TIDES ON THE OCEAN. LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND RARITAN
  BAY OCCUR BETWEEN 700 PM AND 900 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK
  BAYS AND UPPER REACHES OF THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR
  LATER.

* IMPACTS...AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN NEW JERSEY ARE
  EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING...AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
  THRESHOLD. SOME ROADWAYS COULD BE CLOSED NEAR HIGH TIDE. IN 
  DELAWARE..THE TIDE WAS CRESTING AT ABOUT FLOOD STAGE. 


* OUTLOOK...WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THIS SPRING 
  TIDE CYCLE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EVENING... ITS BECOMING MORE 
  LIKELY THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR 
  SUNDAY EVENING WITH A REPEAT CHANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE 
  LOOK FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-060700-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0004.120506T0200Z-120506T0700Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
855 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 100 AM.

* IMPACTS....AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD SEE SPOTTY
  MINOR FLOODING.

* OUTLOOK...WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THIS SPRING 
  TIDE CYCLE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT... ITS BECOMING MORE 
  LIKELY THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY 
  EVENING WITH A REPEAT CHANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE LOOK FOR 
  FURTHER STATEMENTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$



DRAG

337 
WHUS41 KPHI 060256
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1056 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-060400-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120506T0300Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1056 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PASSED AND MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NO
LONGER A THREAT.

* OUTLOOK...WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THIS SPRING
  TIDE CYCLE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EVENING, ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
  COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY EVENING
  WITH A REPEAT CHANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER
  STATEMENTS.

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-060700-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120506T0700Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
1056 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 100 AM.

* IMPACTS....AREAS PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD SEE SPOTTY
  MINOR FLOODING.

* OUTLOOK...WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THIS SPRING
  TIDE CYCLE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT, ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
  COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
  REPEAT CHANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER
  STATEMENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

RPW

842 
WHUS41 KPHI 060455
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-060600-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120506T0700Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
1255 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PASSED AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NO
LONGER A THREAT.

$$

RPW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 AM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONT THAT DROPPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
TO OUR NORTH, WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
THAT WILL MEAN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR MUCH THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
MAINLY WELL INLAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE DENSE ENOUGH OR
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING
OFF THE STILL COOL OCEAN WATERS, WE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM WHERE WE HAD THEM. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH, THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT IN
SOME SECTIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW LEVEL PUSH IS NOT THAT
STRONG. THIS COULD MEAN CLEARING COULD TAKE LONGER THAN THIS
FORECAST IS SHOWING.

THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE
LEHIGH VALLEY...AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS MORE OR LESS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER. HIGHS WERE BASED ON THE MOS BLEND...
THEN DROPPED A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MORNING.

LOW LEVELS CLOUDINESS SHOULD FINALLY SCATTER OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FINALLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST. THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...SO LOWS WERE BASED ON THE MOS BLEND.

HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL TRY TO TOP THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE MONDAY. THE DAY ITSELF LOOKS DRY AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH...AND LOCAL SEA AND BAY
BREEZES COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. FULL SUN TEMPERATURES MONDAY
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TERRAIN AND THE WATER. DUE TO SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON...
HIGHS WERE NUDGED CLOSER TO THE MOS BLEND.

LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHING BETWEEN 0600 UTC AND 1200 UTC TUESDAY. THE
AIRMASS IS INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...SO MOST OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
GOES INTO MOISTENING THE AIRMASS.

THE LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE LEHIGH VALLEY....SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY CLOSE TO 1200 UTC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE INITIALLY DRY AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF CAPE FROM
PARCELS LIFTED FROM ABOUT 5000 FEET. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THUNDER
WILL BE RETAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND FOCUSED ON THE
ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.60 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN COULD BECOME A THREAT. IT IS PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO ACCURATELY
DISCERN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN...AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DETERMINE THIS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WERE GENERALLY
BASED ON MOS.

THE LOW LEVEL JET EXITS TUESDAY MORNING...TAKING THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH IT. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO
THE WARM SECTOR...BUT WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...ANY CONVECTION COULD
BE FAIRLY SCATTERED. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE
LEHIGH VALLEY...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL CLEARING SHOULD
BE. THE MENTION OF THUNDER WILL BE RETAINED FOR TUESDAY...BUT GIVEN
A WEST SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THE COVERAGE COULD BE FAIRLY
PALTRY.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND TO A FAIR DEGREE ON THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WHILE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS
ARE COMING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING TIMING...THE AMOUNT OF
TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME STRATUS/FOG ISSUES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS WOULD
FURTHER COMPLICATE THE PROCESS.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS COULD BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH
AS WELL. WHILE THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS FOR STRONG CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE ARE TOO MANY QUESTION MARKS
TO INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK RIGHT NOW.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE
NEW ENGLAND LOW PULLS OUT. FOR NOW...THE MENTION OF SHOWERS WAS
RETAINED. THURSDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL WARMING COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
SHOULD BRING DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH ST AND FOG IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO BE MAINLY IFR/MVFR. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO HIGHER MVFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT EARLY MORNING WINDS WILL
BECOME E TO NE AROUND 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT OUR CONFIDENCE LEVEL WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THEM IN ANY OF OUR TAFS. ONCE THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING, CIGS
WILL LOWER AGAIN TO IFR/MVFR. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF ST TONIGHT
THAN FOG. E TO NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IN A
FEW LOCATIONS LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLEARING .

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS AND IFR ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS A WARM
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATE...AS WELL AS
THUNDER.

TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AS A
WARM FRONT PASSES. CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING COULD IMPROVE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE MAKE
THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT THAT DROPPED ACROSS OUR
WATERS OVERNIGHT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH, WINDS WILL BECOME NE TO E
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT TODAY. WE COULD HAVE GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 4 FT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PEAKS ABOUT THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT BACKS OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
COULD DEVELOP. THE FLOW REALLY BACKS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...SO AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LIMITS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THE RETURN FLOW INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IS LOOKS
LIKE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO MONDAY
EVENING...EVEN THOUGH WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MONDAY EVENING. THE GRADIENT ITSELF DOES NOT NECESSARILY LOOK LIKE
IT COULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WINDS...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. A 45
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE
MOMENTUM ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT GUSTS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SEAS SHOULD START TO RESPOND TO THE
INCREASING FETCH...AND ON THE OCEAN SEAS COULD REACH 5 FEET BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE WARM SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS COULD BE
A SLOW PROCESS. IN ANY EVENT...THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELAWARE
BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WINDS ON THE OCEAN. IN ADDITION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 5 FEET TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS THE
PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD BRING WINDS DOWN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD STILL BE ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OCEAN WATERS...AS THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL SORTS ITSELF OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES (SOME OF THE HIGHEST OF THE YEAR)...THANKS
FOR THE THE FULL MOON IN PERIGEE (MAKING ITS CLOSEST PASS TO US)
WILL BRING US CLOSE TO THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARK THIS
WEEKEND. THE TIDES OF INTEREST ARE THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS
EVENING...AND THE EVENING TIDE CYCLE ON SUNDAY.

THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE ONLY 0.2 TO 0.5 FEET BELOW THE
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW
(THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA) SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GET US TO THE BENCHMARK AND ABOVE DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING.

THE GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE BRINGS ALL OCEAN LOCATIONS AND REEDY POINT ON
DELAWARE CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK...AND OUR LOCAL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY
PUTS US ABOVE THAT MARK. DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WE WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN FRONT AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON THE TIDAL SECTION OF
THE DELAWARE RIVER COULD GET CLOSE...BUT THAT HIGH TIDE IS NEARLY 24
HOURS AWAY. WE HAVE TIME TO ASSESS THE IMPACT...AND IF NEEDED ISSUE
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT OR ADVISORY LATER TODAY.

THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IS ACTUALLY A TAD HIGHER THAN THE TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR THIS CYCLE WILL CONTINUED
TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR NJZ016-021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...HAYES/RPW
MARINE...HAYES/RPW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-060245-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1037 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-060245-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
1037 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE SATURDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-060245-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1037 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016-017-PAZ067-070-050300-
CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-SALEM NJ-
954 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHESTER...
DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...NEW CASTLE AND SALEM COUNTIES...

AT 949 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES WEST OF WEST
CHESTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
MARSHALLTON...WEST CHESTER AROUND 1000 PM...WESTTOWN...CHEYNEY
AROUND 1015 PM...ELAM...TALLEYVILLE AROUND 1030
PM...ARDENCROFT...ARDEN AROUND 1045 PM...PENNS GROVE AND BECKETT
AROUND 1100 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...AS WELL AS SMALL
HAIL.

LAT...LON 3999 7597 4019 7570 3990 7525 3988 7526
      3988 7522 3984 7518 3957 7548 3963 7557
      3965 7556 3964 7559 3993 7600 3996 7600

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1109 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

NJZ013-014-020-026-050415-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-OCEAN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
1109 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES...

AT 1104 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTH OF TOMS RIVER...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR LAKEWOOD...JACKSON AROUND
1115 PM...LEISURE VILLAGE EAST...BRICK TOWNSHIP AROUND 1130 PM...
SILVERTON...LAVALLETTE AROUND 1145 PM...SEASIDE HEIGHTS AND SEASIDE
PARK AROUND MIDNIGHT.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...IN ADDITION TO
SMALL HAIL.

LAT...LON 3998 7405 3998 7404 3995 7406 3985 7408
      3986 7410 3992 7410 3989 7412 3989 7413
      4014 7445 4028 7430 4012 7402

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

NJZ013-014-020-026-050445-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-OCEAN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A CLUSTER PF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MONMOUTH AND OCEAN
COUNTIES...

AT 1142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 13 MILES NORTH OF TOMS RIVER...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
LAKEWOOD...CEDAR GLEN WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT...LEISURE VILLAGE
EAST...LEISURE VILLAGE AROUND 1215 AM...SILVERTON...HOLIDAY
CITY-DOVER AROUND 1230 AM...LAVALLETTE AND GILFORD PARK AROUND 1245
AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND AS MUCH AS ONE AND
ONE-HALF INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THIS MUCH
RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE
DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

LAT...LON 3998 7405 3998 7404 3989 7408 3980 7407
      3969 7413 3959 7421 3961 7422 3962 7422
      3964 7424 4008 7451 4035 7421 4017 7401

HAYES