Coastal Flood Advisory 3, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

567 
WHUS41 KPHI 221931
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-230400-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0003.120423T0000Z-120423T0400Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
331 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF LOWER DELAWARE BAY... ALONG THE 
  ATLANTIC OCEAN AND DELAWARE BAY. THIS INCLUDES THE BACK BAYS 
  AND INLETS. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDES ON THE OCEAN SIDE AND RARITAN BAY ARE 
  AROUND 9 PM. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK BAYS AND THE LOWER 
  DELAWARE BAY WILL OCCUR LATER. 

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL BR 6 TO 11 FEET AND WAVE 
  HEIGHTS ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET. 

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN... WAVE ACTION AND 
  MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL CLOSE ROADWAYS THAT ARE PRONE TO 
  MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-230500-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0003.120423T0400Z-120423T0900Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CUMBERLAND-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
331 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* LOCATION...UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE 
  DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

* TIMING...DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...EXPECT FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS THAT ARE VULNERABLE 
  ANYTIME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURS. HEAVY RAIN WILL 
  EXACERBATE THE FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

110 
WHUS41 KPHI 230359
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1159 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012
 
DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-230500-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120423T0400Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1159 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THIS HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE. ANY RESIDUAL
FLOODING IN THE BACK BAYS AND INLETS SHOULD END SHORTLY. NO
ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. 

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-230500-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0003.120423T0400Z-120423T0900Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CUMBERLAND-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1159 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL CREST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS.
 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES NORTH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO NEW YORK AND CANADA AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT PLAINS SHOULD
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO
NRLY BEHIND IT. THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AND THEN IT WILL TRACK TO OFFSHORE MD
BY THIS EVENING. A SHIELD OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW AND BRING STEADY RAINS WHICH WILL BECOME
HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
HYDRO EFFECTS.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED SINCE THE DEEPENING LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25
KTS AND OCNL GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE
HIGHEST GUSTS ARE FOR NJ (CENTRAL AND SOUTH) AND DELAWARE. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THE THESE HIGHER GUSTS WILL REACH TOO FAR INLAND...BUT
THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED LATER IF NEEDED. TEMPS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM EARLIER...MOSTLY MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS NJ THEN CURVE NW BACK TOWARD THE
POCONOS BY 12Z MON. DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND FROM THE WEST AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION...ENDING THE HEAVY RAINS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...SHIFTING TO WRLY OR SWRLY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 400 AM FOR NOW...IT CAN BE
ADJUSTED ON UPCOMING FCSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS...REACHING THE LOW 40S OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND
MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED ABOUT EVEN BUT NOT
PERFECT WITH THE TROF IN THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST, IF
ANYTHING SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION. CONVERSELY AT
850MB AND 925MB THE GFS LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB.

AT THE START OF MONDAY MORNING, THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE JUST
ABOUT EXITING IF NOT ALREADY EXITED OUR CWA. THEN INTO TUESDAY WE
ARE STUCK WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL HANGOVER FROM THIS INTENSE
SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE NERN CONUS.

GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO FAST WITH THE SFC LOW, IT IS LIKELY
TOO FAST WITH ADVECTING THE COLD AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. SMALL CONSOLATION AS BOTH IT AND THE WRF-NMMB ARE IN SELF
DESTRUCT SUNSHINE MODE WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT IN PLACE. PTYPE
SHOULD BE RAIN SHOWERS AS WE SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 30 MPH. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST WITH THE WINDS AND
TAKE US CLOSE TO WIND ADVY CRITERIA. BECAUSE THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO
FAST, WE COMPROMISED ON THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.

WHILE WE WILL LOSE WHAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED SUN ON MONDAY, THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE SLOW TO DEPART
CLOSED LOW MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPEST MOISTURE IS NW WHERE WE KEPT
POPS THRU THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY NIGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A TOBYHANNA ACCUMULATION
WOULD NOT BE A SHOCKER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AND A
FEW LESS SHOWERS AROUND. MEASURABLE POPS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 40
PCT LESS THAN MONDAY AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD ALSO BE LIGHTER WITH
HEIGHTS STARTING TO RECOVER ALOFT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT
850MB. HERE THE GFS AIR MASS RECOVERY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST AND WE
COMPROMISED ON THE STAT GUIDANCE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

THE WEAKENING TROF AXIS SHOULD CLEAR OUR CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT, JUST
IN TIME FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO START ARRIVING. WE MAINTAINED
CONTINUITY IN THE REST OF THE LONG TERM EMPHASIZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THE NEXT PCPN SHOT WITH CHILLIER THAN
NORMAL, BUT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLIER THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFTED TO A NRLY OR
NWRLY DIRECTION WITH WIND SPEEDS EASING FROM THE GUSTS WHICH
OCCURRED EARLIER. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE 06Z TAFS WERE ISSUED WITH NOT MANY CHANGES FROM THE 00Z TAFS
WITH REGARDS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AND REMAIN IFR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NE THEN STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY
BY AFTERNOON AND LAST UNTIL 05Z-07Z...ENDING FROM SW TO NE. LOW CIGS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ONCE THE RAINS END. LLWS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR WITH SFC/ALOFT (2K) WINDS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION
AND SPEEDS DIFFERING BY AROUND 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE MORNING..IMPROVING TO MVFR AND
VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. SW TO W WINDS COULD GUST TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOW.

WED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN POSSIBLE RAIN.

THU...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WAS DROPPED AROUND 200AM. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA THIS MORNING...THEN RAMP UP TO GALES BY LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NRN WATERS WAS
CHANGED A BIT TO START AT THE SAME TIME AS THE OTHER AREAS...TO
MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GALE FLAGS. A GALE WAS ALSO ISSUED
FOR THE NRN DEL BAY...WHERE SOME G40 WILL LIKELY AFFECT SJSN4. THE
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE DEL BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THRU 06Z MON
AND CONTINUE THRU 09Z MON FOR THE NRN 2 COASTAL WATERS ZONES. SCA
FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ONCE THE GALE FLAGS ARE TAKEN DOWN.

OUTLOOK...
WE MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH,
SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. AT THE LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY DAY UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FINALLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DEPENDING UPON HOW
STRONG THAT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS, WE MIGHT REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. PCPN AMOUNTS FROM THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THUNDERSTORMS AVERAGED BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
HALF AN INCH.

WHILE WE HAVE BEEN DRY...ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN ARE
COMING TOGETHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SOURCE OF THE AIR RIDING
UP THE FRONT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS THE EASTERN GULF STATES...
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.50 INCHES LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE POKING INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. THE INITIAL SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTS SOUTHERN AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS SHOT COULD APPROACH
2.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. THESE QPF NUMBERS PUSH SOME OF THE FLASHIER STREAMS
AND SMALL RIVERS (SUCH AS THE CHRISTINA) ABOVE THEIR BANKS.
THIS IS THE REASON NORTHERN DELAWARE AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA WERE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH.

FARTHER NORTH...WHERE THE RICH THETA RICH AIR PUSHES IN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HIGHER QPF VALUES ARE
EXPECTED. IN THESE AREAS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL VALUES CLOSE TO
3.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PLACES IN MORRIS COUNTY. WHILE THIS
MUCH RAIN DOES NOT RESULT IN MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING...SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS (SUCH AS THOSE IN MORRIS COUNTY) SHOULD RESPOND
QUICKLY TO THESE AMOUNTS. IF CLOSER TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLS IN
THE PASSAIC BASIN...MAINSTEM FLOODING COULD BECOME POSSIBLE.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR THE RAINFALL TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE SYSTEM.

RUNNING SOME CONTINGENT FORECASTS AND USING SOME MMEFS DATA, THESE
ARE SOME NUMBERS TO WATCH FOR (BASIN-WIDE AVERAGES) FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING...

QUICK RESPONDERS ACROSS SE PA AND NRN DE...2.25 TO 2.50"
SLOWER RESPONDERS ACROSS SE PA...3.00"
RANCOCAS BASIN...3.00"
RARITAN BASIN...3.75"
PASSAIC BASIN...4.00"
LEHIGH BASIN...4.00+"
POCONOS...4.00+"

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN, DELAWARE BAY
AND TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WHILE THE SURGE GUIDANCE HAS OUR AREA JUST GETTING OR
FALLING A BIT SHORT OF THE NEEDED CRITERIA, OUR LOCAL STUDY PROGRAM
TAKES TIDAL DEPARTURES HALFWAY INTO THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
CRITERIA SOUTH WITH LESS DEPARTURES FARTHER NORTH. SO LEAST
CONFIDENCE UP TOWARD NYC, WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY WINDS
INCREASE LEADING INTO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE ADDED COMPLICATION
WILL BE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

WE ARE GOING TO HOLD OFF ON CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE CBOFS
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT IT TENDS TO RUN A
BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR PAZ067>071.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR NJZ008>010-012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NJZ016>019-021.
DE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR DEZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-452>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HAYES
NEAR TERM...O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/HAYES/O'HARA
MARINE...HAYES/O'HARA
HYDROLOGY...HAYES/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

PAZ054-055-230815-
CARBON-MONROE-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SOME FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ008>010-PAZ067>069-230815-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-230815-
SUSSEX-WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ015-230815-
MERCER-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-230815-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-230815-
NEW CASTLE-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM
EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-NJZ016>019-021-230815-
KENT-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM
EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ070-071-230815-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM
EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ012-230815-
MIDDLESEX-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-230815-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON
MONDAY DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-452>455-230815-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-230815-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
402 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1032 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEBANON                 40.64N  74.84W
04/21/2012                   HUNTERDON          NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRE DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200041

G

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1038 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILLISTOWN              39.96N  75.50W
04/21/2012                   CHESTER            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            PROPERTY DAMAGE ON SUGARTOWN ROAD. PARTIAL ROOF
            COLLAPSE OF ONE BLDG. ROOF DAMAGE TO TWO OTHER
            BUILDINGS.

0907 PM     HAIL             GREEN LANE              40.34N  75.47W
04/21/2012  M0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         PA   PUBLIC

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THE WOODLANDS           40.17N  75.15W
04/21/2012                   MONTGOMERY         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN HORSHAM TOWNSHIP.

1007 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEBANON                 40.64N  74.84W
04/21/2012                   HUNTERDON          NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRE DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200040 PHI1200038 PHI1200039 PHI1200041

G

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1236 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILLISTOWN              39.96N  75.50W
04/21/2012                   CHESTER            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            PROPERTY DAMAGE ON SUGARTOWN ROAD. PARTIAL ROOF
            COLLAPSE OF ONE BLDG. ROOF DAMAGE TO TWO OTHER
            BUILDINGS.

0905 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMBLER                  40.15N  75.22W
04/21/2012                   MONTGOMERY         PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ABOUT A DOZEN LARGE TREES UP TO 70 FT KNOCKED DOWN
            ALONG A PARK ENTRANCE ON THE AMBLER AND UPPER DUBLIN
            TOWNSHIP BORDER.

0907 PM     HAIL             GREEN LANE              40.34N  75.47W
04/21/2012  M0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         PA   PUBLIC

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THE WOODLANDS           40.17N  75.15W
04/21/2012                   MONTGOMERY         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN HORSHAM TOWNSHIP.

1007 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEBANON                 40.64N  74.84W
04/21/2012                   HUNTERDON          NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRE DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200040 PHI1200042 PHI1200038 PHI1200039 PHI1200041

G