Alert archive / Maryland / Coastal Flood Advisories in 2012

Coastal Flood Advisory 19, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

September 18, 20124 states

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this coastal flood advisory at Sep 18, 2012, 4:13 AM EDT for 4 states. It took effect at Sep 18, 2012, 1:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 18, 2012, 4:13 AM EDT (08:13 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 18, 2012, 1:00 PM EDT
Expired
Sep 19, 2012, 1:00 AM EDT
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Counties New Castle County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Delaware County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

The radar

The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 00:00Z on 2012-09-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 13 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 00:00Z on 2012-09-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 105 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
13 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-83 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
681 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

512 
WHUS41 KPHI 180813
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
413 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-190000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.120918T1700Z-120919T2200Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
413 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATION...ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, TIDAL TRIBUTARIES AND
  UPPER DELAWARE BAY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST. IF HEAVY
  RAIN OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIME, IT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
  DRAINING AND WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS FROM AROUND 1 PM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
  DELAWARE RIVER TO AROUND 5 PM NEAR BURLINGTON CITY. HIGH TIDE AT
  PHILADELPHIA IS AROUND 4 PM.

* IMPACTS...ROADS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-190000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.120918T2200Z-120920T0500Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
413 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* LOCATION...ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST. IF HEAVY
  RAIN OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, IT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
  DRAINING AND WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS FROM AROUND 630 PM NEAR CAMBRIDGE TO
  AROUND 1OO AM AT CHARLESTOWN AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-190000-
/O.CON.KPHI.RP.S.0010.120918T1200Z-120919T0000Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
413 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

* RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF.
RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE. THEY OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH
PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

&&

$$
6 follow-up statements
114 
WHUS41 KPHI 180821
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-182200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.120918T1700Z-120918T2200Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER... TIDAL TRIBUTARIES 
  AND UPPER DELAWARE BAY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST. IF HEAVY 
  RAIN OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIME... IT WILL HAVE 
  DIFFICULTY DRAINING AND WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS FROM AROUND 1 PM NEAR THE MOUTH OF 
  THE DELAWARE RIVER TO AROUND 5 PM NEAR BURLINGTON CITY. HIGH 
  TIDE AT PHILADELPHIA IS AROUND 4 PM.

* IMPACTS...ROADS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-190500-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.120918T2200Z-120919T0500Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST. IF HEAVY 
  RAIN OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... IT WILL HAVE 
  DIFFICULTY DRAINING AND WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS FROM AROUND 630 PM NEAR CAMBRIDGE TO 
  AROUND 1OO AM AT CHARLESTOWN AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-190000-
/O.CON.KPHI.RP.S.0010.120918T1200Z-120919T0000Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

* RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF.
RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE. THEY OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH
PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

&&

$$
400 
WHUS41 KPHI 180822 CCA
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-182200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.120918T1700Z-120918T2200Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER... TIDAL TRIBUTARIES 
  AND UPPER DELAWARE BAY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST. IF HEAVY 
  RAIN OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIME... IT WILL HAVE 
  DIFFICULTY DRAINING AND WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS FROM AROUND 1 PM NEAR THE MOUTH OF 
  THE DELAWARE RIVER TO AROUND 5 PM NEAR BURLINGTON CITY. HIGH 
  TIDE AT PHILADELPHIA IS AROUND 4 PM.

* IMPACTS...ROADS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-190500-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.120918T2200Z-120919T0500Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST. IF HEAVY 
  RAIN OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... IT WILL HAVE 
  DIFFICULTY DRAINING AND WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS FROM AROUND 630 PM NEAR CAMBRIDGE TO 
  AROUND 1OO AM AT CHARLESTOWN AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-190000-
/O.CON.KPHI.RP.S.0010.120918T1200Z-120919T0000Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

* RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF.
RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE. THEY OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH
PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

&&

$$

CORRECTED END TIME OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES.
926 
WHUS41 KPHI 181947
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-182200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-120918T2200Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
347 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER... TIDAL TRIBUTARIES 
  AND UPPER DELAWARE BAY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST. IF HEAVY 
  RAIN OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIME... IT WILL HAVE 
  DIFFICULTY DRAINING AND WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS FROM AROUND 1 PM NEAR THE MOUTH OF 
  THE DELAWARE RIVER TO AROUND 5 PM NEAR BURLINGTON CITY. HIGH 
  TIDE AT PHILADELPHIA IS AROUND 4 PM.

* IMPACTS...ROADS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-190400-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.120918T2200Z-120919T0500Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
347 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST.
  LOCATIONS IN UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL COME CLOSE TO MODERATE
  TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF
  HIGH TIDE...IT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAINING AND WILL
  EXACERBATE FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS FROM AROUND 630 PM NEAR CAMBRIDGE TO 
  AROUND 100 AM AT CHARLESTOWN AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING WILL FLOOD. DO NOT DRIVE
  AROUND BARRICADES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-190000-
/O.CON.KPHI.RP.S.0010.000000T0000Z-120919T0000Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
347 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

* RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF.
RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE. THEY OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH
PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

&&

$$
359 
WHUS41 KPHI 182148
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
548 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-182300-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-120918T2200Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
548 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...



$$

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-190500-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.120918T2200Z-120919T0500Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
548 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS 
  FORECAST. LOCATIONS IN UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL COME CLOSE TO 
  MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS NEAR THE 
  TIME OF HIGH TIDE...IT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAINING AND WILL 
  EXACERBATE FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS FROM AROUND 630 PM NEAR CAMBRIDGE TO 
  AROUND 100 AM AT CHARLESTOWN AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING WILL FLOOD. DO NOT 
  DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-190000-
/O.CON.KPHI.RP.S.0010.000000T0000Z-120919T0000Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
548 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

* RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF.
RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE. THEY OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH
PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

&&

$$
326 
WHUS41 KPHI 190117
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-190500-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-120919T0500Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
917 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS 
  FORECAST. LOCATIONS IN UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL COME CLOSE TO 
  MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS NEAR THE 
  TIME OF HIGH TIDE...IT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAINING AND WILL 
  EXACERBATE FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS FROM AROUND 630 PM NEAR CAMBRIDGE TO 
  AROUND 100 AM AT CHARLESTOWN AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING WILL FLOOD. DO NOT 
  DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$
719 
WHUS41 KPHI 190456
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1256 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-190600-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-120919T0500Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
1256 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EDT...

THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
WAS ENDING. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this coastal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood advisory went out at Sep 17, 9:50 PM EDT, 6 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 9:50 PM EDT, 6 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAKER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BY 900 PM, A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
HAD ALREADY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, COVERING NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
BY MIDNIGHT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN WAS IN
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND AT 900 PM. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH. IT SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AS MILD AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO OUR
REGION DURING THE NIGHT, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT AND THEY MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE A BIT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY! SLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE DURG THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTN AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LATEST GUID IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
MIX DOWN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE WINDS OF 40 KTS OR MORE AT H9
DURG THE AFTN AND EVE HRS. WITH THAT SAID, HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVY
FOR ALL ZONES AND WILL SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. THE OTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR WINDS IS THE CDFNT ITSELF WILL LIKELY ACT
AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE. THE WHOLE ERN
SEABOARD REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW. SO IN ADDITION TO THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GRAD WIND, THERE CUD BE STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WITH
ANY TSTMS. WILE THE FRONT IS MOVG AT A DECENT CLIP, THERE CUD BE
SOME PDS OF HVY RAIN AS WELL. HOWEVER, MOST FFG EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME N IS VERY HIGH DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE'VE BEEN DRY FOR
OVER A WEEK AND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH TSTMS THEY ARE HIT AND
MISS. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE THE TYPE OF EVENT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN OCCURS FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE FROPA.
BUT WITH THAT SAID THERE WILL LIKELY BE PDS OF LIGHTER RAIN AND
TUESDAY JUST LOOKS LIKE A DREARY DAY OVERALL. WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND PDS OF RAIN, HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT BUT
DIDN'T WANT TO GO TOO FAR AS THESE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE NEGATED
BY THE STRONG SLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT ALL LEVELS. IF ANYTHING BOTH MODELS ARE A BIT TOO WARM AT 850MB
AND 925MB IN OUR AREA. THE 12HR ECMWF 500MB FCST VERIFIED TOO FAR
SW WITH THE TEXAS CLOSED LOW. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE ARE GOING TO
FOLLOW A GFS/WRF-NMMB COMPROMISE IN GENERAL AND THEN LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF BECAUSE OF ITS CONTINUING WWD OR SLOW BIAS WITH
RECENT SYSTEMS. AT ONE TIME ON THIS SET OF DAY SHIFTS THE ECMWF
HAD THE COLD FRONT ON A AVP TO LNS LINE AT 12Z WED WHILE THE GFS
WAS ALREADY OFF THE NJ COAST.

CFP TIMING IS GOING TO BE A GFS-NAM COMPROMISE. THIS WOULD HAVE
THE FRONT KNOCKING ON OUR CWA'S DOOR AT 00Z, ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR AROUND 04Z AND OFF THE COAST BY 07Z-08Z.

PRETTY MUCH CARRYING FORWARD FROM THE SHORT TERM, IF THERE IS A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM AND SHOULD ONLY ENHANCE WHAT ARE STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS. CWA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DURING THE EVENING
(ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS). WE HAVE BASIN AVERAGES OF AN
INCH TO TWO ACROSS OUR CWA, BUT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY NOTED SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN ANY CONVECTION AND IN SOME UPSLOPE
AREAS. WITH FFG PRETTY HIGH EXCEPT IN SUSSEX AND MORRIS COUNTY NJ,
THIS EVENT LEANS MORE TOWARD A POOR DRAINAGE AND POSSIBLY SMALL
STREAM CONCERN VS FLASH FLOODING. WE KEPT POPS AND PCPN LAGGING A
BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE POSITIONING OF THE FCST
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LOCATION OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
H2.5 JET. BUT, THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH AND OVERALL INTENSITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LESS.
MIN TEMPS ARE A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE TOWARD THE PREFERRED CFP
TIMING.

GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. NOT CONFIDENT AS TO
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE AS THE H2.5 JET AND A SERIES OF
CHANNELIZED SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
BEST IMPROVEMENT WEST, LEAST EAST. AS SUCH WE WERE CONSERVATIVE
WITH MAX TEMPS.

THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WE ARE MUCH CLOSER TO MODEL
CONSENSUS THAN THE PREV 12Z OR 00Z ECMWF AS FAR AS WAVES MOVING UP
ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECTING OR NOT AFFECTING OUR CWA. THE LATEST
12Z ECMWF JUMPED TOWARD MODEL CONSENSUS . THE ECMWF IS TOO SLOW
WITH FCSTG THE CURRENT SOUTHERN SYSTEM AND HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION. REGARDLESS THE FORECAST POSITION FOR THE SFC HIGH IS
NOT THE GREATEST, WITH SOME ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. THUS SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA. WE DID
LEAN TOWARD RADIATIONAL COOLING MINS, BUT THERE IS GREATER
CONFIDENCE NORTHWEST THAN SOUTHEAST THAT THESE WILL COME TO
FRUITION. STAT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
OUTLOOKED 925MB TEMPS.

WITH THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT, WE DID SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT, BUT STILL STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS'S THINKING OF
SATURDAY AS BEING THE MORE LIKELY DAY THAN SUNDAY FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE FCST INSTABILITY ALOFT HAS INCREASED WITH BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF, SO WE DID ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
WE DID LEAVE A LOW CHANCE IN FOR SUNDAY AS EVEN THE GFS IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE LONG WAVE TROF THROUGH BY THEN. DRY
WEATHER HAS BEEN THEN STARTED IN THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AT 0130Z, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES. IT
WAS MAINLY CLEAR AT KTTN, KACY AND KMIV. A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS
HAD OVERSPREAD KILG, KPHL, KPNE, KRDG AND KABE WITH CEILINGS
MAINLY IN THE 3000 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE. THE CLOUDS WILL COVER THE
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY 0400Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER GRADUALLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING
THAT PERIOD. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST,
ALONG WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S AND PERHAPS AROUND 40 KNOTS IN
SPOTS.

THE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 0400Z AND 0700Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD
FOLLOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY AVERAGING MVFR WITH IFR AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND STRONG CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY/ CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE NORTHWEST AND LOW TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN MORNING FOG ON FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
SOME MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
OR MORNING FOG. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AS A STRONG CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE PGRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
TIGHTEN AND AN SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY.
THEREFORE, A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT NOON ON TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING ON OUR OCEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AS WELL.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET WEEK ON THE AREA WATERS, TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
ANYTHING BUT CALM.

OUTLOOK...
GALE WARNING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ON THE FRONT SIDE, BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FROM THERE, ITS JUST A QUESTION OF HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR SEAS
TO SUBSIDE WHICH FOR NOW WE ARE FORECASTING TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY SOME WAVES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ALONG THE PREVIOUS FRONT, BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE EITHER
OFFSHORE OR LESS ENERGETIC ABOUT THE WAVES THEMSELVES. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE OCEAN WATERS JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THE BAY.

THEN LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD START GETTING A BIT MORE ROBUST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY, BUT FOR NOW WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKING THEM TO
SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LATEST MDL AND BOFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE FOLLOWING THINKING.
GREATEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE REMAIN IN CHESAPEAKE BAY TO
REACH MINOR. THERE IS AN UPTICK IN THE DELAWARE RIVER AND UPPER
DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT TAKE THEM THERE YET.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE
PROBLEMS WITH HYBRID FLOODING UP DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER DURING THE TUESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH TIDE
GENERALLY OCCURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK THERE. ALTHOUGH IT
IS THE LOWER HIGH TIDE, DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 FEET IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY RAIN WOULD START MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. DBOFS IS NOT
TAKING REEDY POINT TO THE MINOR LEVEL AND DOES NOT GO OUT FAR
ENOUGH REGARDING THE TIDAL DELAWARE, BUT WE STILL THINK HEAVY RAIN
WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME DRAINING INTO THE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. OVER CHESAPEAKE BAY, THE
TUESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AND MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE HAVE GONE WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TUESDAY, WITH
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE ALONG WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR DEZ001>004.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO/GIGI
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 17, 9:00 PM EDT, 7 hours 13 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-020-022-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-
190100-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
900 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION, SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PUT THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>003-NJZ016>019-021-023-PAZ070-071-190100-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-CAPE MAY-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
900 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION, SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PUT THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO, MAINLY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELAWARE
BAY SHORE, THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-190100-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
900 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION, SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PUT THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO, MAINLY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORE AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-190100-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
900 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   WIND ADVISORY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION, SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PUT THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY, AND THERE MAY BE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-190100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
900 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PUT THE REGION
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 17, 8:54 PM EDTRip Current StatementPHIAtlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, Ocean23 hr
Sep 18, 4:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHISalem69 min
Sep 18, 4:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIWarren52 min
Sep 18, 4:26 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHISussex, Warren3 hr
Sep 18, 5:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Warren59 min
Sep 18, 5:12 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIHunterdon, Morris, Warren63 min
Sep 18, 5:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICamden, Gloucester78 min
Sep 18, 5:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMorris, Sussex, Warren62 min
Sep 18, 5:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHISalem52 min
Sep 18, 6:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and 3 more60 min
Sep 18, 6:02 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningPHI88 min
Sep 18, 6:06 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBurlington, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset and 2 more54 min
Sep 18, 6:46 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem119 min
Sep 18, 6:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMiddlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Somerset53 min
Sep 18, 6:54 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBurlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean and 1 more111 min
Sep 18, 7:04 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Cumberland56 min
Sep 18, 7:16 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHICape May59 min
Sep 18, 7:51 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIAtlantic, Cape May, Ocean54 min
Sep 18, 7:52 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningPHI77 min
Sep 18, 7:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Ocean64 min
Sep 18, 3:32 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHICecil, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot58 min
Sep 18, 3:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICecil, Kent, Queen Anne's84 min
Sep 18, 4:35 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHICecil, Kent55 min
Sep 18, 4:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICaroline, Queen Anne's, Talbot78 min
Sep 18, 5:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICaroline78 min
Sep 18, 7:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHISussex38 min
Sep 18, 12:58 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHICarbon, Monroe93 min
Sep 18, 12:59 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIBerks, Lehigh46 min
Sep 18, 1:05 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBerks, Lehigh115 min
Sep 18, 1:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Lehigh43 min
Sep 18, 2:00 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIChester, Montgomery60 min
Sep 18, 2:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHICarbon, Monroe57 min
Sep 18, 2:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIChester, Montgomery30 min
Sep 18, 2:25 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHICarbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton4 hr
Sep 18, 2:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBucks, Lehigh, Northampton17 min
Sep 18, 3:07 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHIBerks, Lehigh8 hr
Sep 18, 3:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIMonroe59 min
Sep 18, 3:24 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIBerks, Carbon51 min
Sep 18, 3:52 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIChester53 min
Sep 18, 4:05 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBerks, Lehigh55 min
Sep 18, 4:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery56 min
Sep 18, 6:19 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningPHICarbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton16 hr

Nearby

Coastal Flood Advisories in Maryland, 2012Coastal Flood Advisories in New Jersey, 2012Coastal Flood Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2012Every coastal flood advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.