Areal Flood Warning 12, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
324 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING AND MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WELL. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY /LI'S -4 TO -6 AND CAPES AROUND 1,500-2,500/ THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG. GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM, IN ADDITION THE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST AND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS PAST THE AREA AND
THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA; BY MIDNIGHT, ALL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE. BEHIND THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY, CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT AS WELL, LEADING
TO CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER, HOW THICK IT BECOMES IS UNCERTAIN, SO WE DID
NOT HIT THE FOG VERY HARD AT THIS TIME. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WE TOOK
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST, WHILE
SLIGHT RIDGING TAKES PLACE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND DRY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT, DEWPOINTS MAY MIX DOWN
INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S,
EVEN AROUND 90 IN SOME AREAS, IT SHOULD FEEL QUITE NICE. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT FLAT...WITH A SLIGHT TROUGH ACROSS
THE EAST AND A RIDGE OUT WEST. DURING THE LONG RANGE...THE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH A UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS HUDSON'S BAY THIS WEEKEND
WHICH WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF EXCESSIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE NORMAL...OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL
STILL BE WARM ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
END TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MY FORECAST HAS SLOWED THE START TIME FOR THE RAIN A BIT
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE NAM SUGGESTS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TOWARDS EVENING...WHILE THE GFS HAS SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NJ FRI MORNING. THE 00Z EC MODEL IS
QUITE A BIT SLOWER...BRINGING THE SHOWERS IN SAT MORNING. WE WILL
OFFER CHC POPS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH THE SAT ACTIVITY MOSTLY
IN THE MORNING.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS
MOSTLY DRY...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERING TO THE WEST WILL OFFER
SMALL CHCS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTM MON-TUE. ONLY SLGT CHC
POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THESE TIME PERIODS ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WERE KEPT IN A TEMPO GROUP EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ALL
TAF SITES. IF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DO IMPACT A TAF SITE, IT
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO AT LEAST MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR.
ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BE
DONE BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOW BECOME MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION, VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DEPENDING ON THE
SITE. EVERYONE SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING, BEFORE
MANY SITES BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTS ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER, FOR NOW
WE DID NOT INCLUDE IT EVERYWHERE AND PUT IT IN FOR THE SITES THAT
TYPICALLY GET THE MORNING FOG THIS TIME OF YEAR /RDG, TTN, AND MIV.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...MOSTLY VFR.
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY
GUST NEAR 15-20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...O'HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...O'HARA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON
MARINE...ROBERTSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-161930-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
319 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-450>455-161930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
319 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
238 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

NJZ013-014-020-026-151930-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-OCEAN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
238 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN
COASTAL OCEAN COUNTIES...

AT 232 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF LONG BRANCH TO
ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF ASBURY PARK THAT WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
SHORE THROUGH 300 PM.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4026 7397 4012 7402 4003 7404 4001 7405
      4001 7416 4042 7405 4043 7405 4043 7400
      4048 7402 4048 7400 4044 7397 4036 7396

MPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

NJZ022-025-026-152000-
ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
258 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC AND OCEAN COUNTIES...

AT 253 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF OCEAN CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR VENTNOR CITY...
PLEASANTVILLE AROUND 315 PM...ABSECON AROUND 330 PM AND BRIGANTINE
AROUND 345 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM WITH A FEW CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3950 7431 3947 7429 3945 7431 3935 7442
      3930 7452 3931 7460 3929 7461 3930 7463
      3955 7442 3954 7440 3951 7440 3950 7436
      3953 7435 3951 7428

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             MIDDLETOWN              40.39N  74.12W
08/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN MIDDLETOWN.

0255 PM     HAIL             ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS      40.41N  74.03W
08/15/2012  E0.88 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200676 PHI1200677

KLINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
323 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

NJZ001-008-152015-
MORRIS NJ-SUSSEX NJ-
323 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MORRIS AND SUSSEX COUNTIES...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NEWTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR LAKE MOHAWK AROUND 330 PM...OGDENSBURG...
FRANKLIN AROUND 345 PM...LAKE TELEMARK...HAMBURG AROUND 400 PM...
GREEN POND AND KINNELON AROUND 415 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
MULTIPLE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 4119 7437 4109 7449 4105 7449 4106 7445
      4103 7442 4101 7433 4093 7432 4098 7483
      4116 7482 4121 7437

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             MIDDLETOWN              40.39N  74.12W
08/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN MIDDLETOWN.

0255 PM     HAIL             ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS      40.41N  74.03W
08/15/2012  E0.88 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS.

0334 PM     HAIL             SPARTA                  41.03N  74.64W
08/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN SPARTA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200676 PHI1200677 PHI1200678

KLINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             MIDDLETOWN              40.39N  74.12W
08/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN MIDDLETOWN.

0255 PM     HAIL             ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS      40.41N  74.03W
08/15/2012  E0.88 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS.

0334 PM     HAIL             SPARTA                  41.03N  74.64W
08/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN SPARTA.

0340 PM     HAIL             SPARTA                  41.03N  74.64W
08/15/2012  E1.25 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN SPARTA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200676 PHI1200677 PHI1200678 PHI1200679

KLINE