Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
506 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD
RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ATMOSPHERE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION HAS DESTABILIZED
SUFFICIENTLY IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE CDFNT FOR THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT WATCH IS MUCH DEPENDANT ON DIURNAL SUPPORT
OF THE INSTABILITY FIELD AND WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

BY FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE AND IS
PROGGED TO SIMPLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD
FRONT COMPLETES A SHIFT TOWARD EASTERN ZONES OF THE AREA.

SPC HAS THUS KEPT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY...WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR CURRENTLY FORECAST. THESE VALUES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS
TO GO SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A -4 TO -5 STANDARD DEVIATION UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  AS THE SYSTEM TRUDGES EAST...IT DOES
WEAKEN...BUT STILL POSES A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SKY FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.  TRIPLE POINT /OCCLUSION/ CROSSES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING LESS THAN QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF RAIN.  AS THE CYCLONE WOBBLES NNE...ANALYSIS OF LAYER
GRIDDED RH FIELDS BELOW H7 POINT TO OVC CONDITIONS ALONG AND N OF
I-76 TO PHD SAT.  LOCATIONS S AND SE SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE GIVEN THEY RESIDE BENEATH THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO FURTHER RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF PCPN
AND SKY COVER FRI NGT.  WITH THE CLOUDS AND WET
WEATHER...COMMUNITIES N OF I-80 MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S SAT.

DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE TREND N OF PIT SAT NGT...WHILE THE
BALANCE OF THE AREA STAYS PCLDY.  SW FLOW USHERS IN A WARMER SUN
AFTN.  H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO 15C COUPLED WITH A MIXING LAYER OF NEARLY
4-5 KFT TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME CLOSE TO 80F.

A BLEND OF HPCGUIDE AND MOSGUIDE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDDED DATA WAS
USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:
- NO BIG SYSTEMS
- NORMAL TEMPERATURES

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  THE MAIN SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING RAINFALL TO A LARGE PART OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY.  DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME THE FRONT
TRAVERSES...IT COULD MEAN A THREAT OF STRONG STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL WINDS AND COOLING ALOFT.  DRY WEATHER IS PREDICTED THE
NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER NW FLOW.  ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A H5 CYCLONE
DROPPING THRU NEW ENGLAND THAN GFS...BUT EITHER WAY WE SHOULD RESIDE
FAR ENOUGH SW THAT IT WILL NOT IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

BOTH LONG RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEANS ILLUSTRATE A BUILDING ANTICYCLONE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA DVLPMNT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVE AS AN
UPR SHRTWV/SFC CDFNT MOVE OVR THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS TO IFR AND
TAF AMENDMENTS FOR SVR SHOULD THUS BE ANTICIPATED.

DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVRNGT...BUT MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESIDUAL SHRA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IFR RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
733 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

MDZ001-PAZ023-073>076-WVZ023-041-102345-
GARRETT-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-
FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-
733 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ021-022-102345-
MARION-MONONGALIA-
733 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-
031-WVZ001>004-012-102345-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-
WASHINGTON-GREENE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-
733 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
713 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EGYPT CORNERS           41.35N  79.73W
08/09/2012                   VENANGO            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200961

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
715 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             2 E NEW CASTLE          41.00N  80.31W
08/09/2012  M1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200962

RG

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