Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1033 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH FOG IN AREAS THAT HAVE GOTTEN HEAVY RAIN.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATING FOR NEW WATCH. RECENTLY DEVELOPED COMPLEX WILL COVER THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

AREAS OF FOG CAN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS
OCCURRED.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE DATA AND
HRRR AND GFS LAMP MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN SHRINKING SOUTH SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE HOT
HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF MOS SHOWING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHRINKS SOUTH SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MAY BE
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. HOWEVER, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

SO HAVE ADDED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY, EXCEPT THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND I-80 CORRIDOR.
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE MENTIONED HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE 90S FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD THAT DEEP
RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING TREND WITH THE
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND LOWERING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS A TROUGH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

AFTER A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY, A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE DRY OR WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST
BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ARE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LOWER TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT ONLY RESTRICTIONS TO VFR ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BE MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS. RECENT
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN OHIO, WHICH WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THESE HOLD
TOGETHER TO AFFECT TAF SITES SUCH AS KFKL, KBVI AND KPIT. IFR FOG
CAN OCCUR WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED, BUT THIS RAIN HAS MISSED
OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT NONSTOP VFR THURSDAY AFTER 13Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR MORNING MVFR HAZE. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     020>022-029-031-073-075.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
959 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-060200-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-
WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-
959 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WIND, HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075-060200-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-GREENE-
WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-
959 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WIND, HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT.

PRIOR TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076-WVZ041-060200-
GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-INDIANA-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-TUCKER-
959 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WIND, HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK IN THE MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON...THURSDAY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1132 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     HAIL             1 SSW GLEN EDEN         40.72N  80.12W
07/04/2012  E1.00 INCH       BUTLER             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200684

ASMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1135 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 PM     HAIL             CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP      40.70N  80.13W
07/04/2012  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             PA   PUBLIC

&&

CORRECTED EVENT...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200686

RG

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