Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LITTLE RELIEF FROM WARM AND HUMID WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENTLY WATCHING TWO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. ONE IS MOVING
ACROSS FAR W OHIO, THE OTHER INTO NW OHIO. BOTH ARE FIRING IN THE
VICINITY OF A BROAD SW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE EVENING, BUT WILL WEAKEN. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT MESOANALYSIS,
THERE IS MODERATE SHEER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, HOWEVER THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH, IN THE WATCH AREA AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO WV. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF ENERGY
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN
THE NORTHERN COMPLEX.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE COMPLEX TO OUR DUE WEST
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE DUE SOUTH, WHILE THE COMPLEX TO THE NW,
IS GAINING STRENGTH AND STAYING ON A PATH THAT WILL BRING IT
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 00Z. CURRENT
MODEL DATA IS SHOWING AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, WITH A
WEAK THERMAL TROUGH, WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN
COMPLEX WILL TRACK FROM CLOSE TO CLE TO PIT TOWARD JST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY NOT SURE IF THE AREA CAN HOLD ITS SEVERE
FEATURES IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE AREA
THAT IS EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA. USING MODEL DATA TO DELINEATE
THE TIMING, IT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY CLEARING THE AREA BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

NOW BEGINNING TO THINK THAT THE FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN AREA.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR, CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENCE GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK SEEMS TO BE THE
KEY AS LARGE SCALE MODELS AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THE BETTER
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO COME IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. STRONGER INSTABILITY ON ALL
MODELS...MORE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND BETTER MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THINGS TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND HOTTER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...AS WERE
TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AFTER TUESDAY...CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BUILD TOWARD RIDGING BECOMING
THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...POPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY START TO WANDER DOWNWARD...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO
CREEP UPWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE ONE DAY BEYOND TUESDAY'S
WEATHER TO BECOME REALITY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH WEAKER MIXING WILL
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES SUBDUED SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EPISODES WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT
AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST POPS
ARE GENERALLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY DURING PEAK HEATING...AND ISOLATED
AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM
REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORT WAVE IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 05Z-06Z. VISIBILITIES 2-4
IN BR BY EARLY MORNING THOSE TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN. HOT AND
HUMID WITH LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON
MONDAY. THIS EVENING, WINDS GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE
BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO
10 KTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND LATE NIGHT FOG
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-021200-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOLIVAR                 40.65N  81.45W
07/01/2012                   TUSCARAWAS         OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200602

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
855 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STRASBURG               40.59N  81.53W
07/01/2012                   TUSCARAWAS         OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200603

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOLIVAR                 40.65N  81.45W
07/01/2012                   TUSCARAWAS         OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200602

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW BOWERSTON          40.47N  81.24W
07/01/2012                   CARROLL            OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200604

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
906 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE MINERAL CITY       40.65N  81.29W
07/01/2012                   CARROLL            OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 524

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200605

RG

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