Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
239 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL KEEP
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING HAS SPAWNED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT WITH
THE DIURNAL COOLING.

A SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. A ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE SET OFF WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE COOLING ALOFT
CAUSED BY THE SHORT WAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST RISK OF SHOWERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS NAEFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS PATTERN, THE REGION WILL BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A DRY FORECAST. A TROUGH IN
PLACE WITH A NWLY FLOW WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND, FORECAST IS A GFSE/ECMWF BLEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
TERMINALS STARTING ACROSS THE NORTH AT KFKL/KFKL THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PITTSBURGH METRO AND INTO KMGW BY EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
HAVE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF KPIT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRING AN
END TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
335 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-041200-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
335 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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