Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

874 
WWUS51 KPBZ 012356
SVSPBZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

OHC059-119-121-020030-
/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-120702T0030Z/
GUERNSEY OH-MUSKINGUM OH-NOBLE OH-
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT
FOR NOBLE...MUSKINGUM AND GUERNSEY COUNTIES...

AT 753 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CANNELVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO  
  ZANESVILLE...         PHILO...              EAST FULTONHAM...
  DUNCAN FALLS...       DRAKE...              DILLON STATE PARK...
  CANNELVILLE...        RURALDALE...         
  BLUE ROCK STATE PARK...                     BRIDGEVILLE...
  ADAMSVILLE...         CHANDLERSVILLE...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...

I-70 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 143 AND 188.
I-77 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 26 AND 54.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 3996 8220 4016 8219 4013 8141 3974 8140
      3976 8207 3978 8208 3981 8209 3982 8218
      3990 8217 3992 8224 3995 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 260DEG 57KT 3982 8187

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LITTLE RELIEF FROM WARM AND HUMID WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENTLY WATCHING TWO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. ONE IS MOVING
ACROSS FAR W OHIO, THE OTHER INTO NW OHIO. BOTH ARE FIRING IN THE
VICINITY OF A BROAD SW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE EVENING, BUT WILL WEAKEN. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT MESOANALYSIS,
THERE IS MODERATE SHEER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, HOWEVER THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH, IN THE WATCH AREA AND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO WV. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF ENERGY
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN
THE NORTHERN COMPLEX.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE COMPLEX TO OUR DUE WEST
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE DUE SOUTH, WHILE THE COMPLEX TO THE NW,
IS GAINING STRENGTH AND STAYING ON A PATH THAT WILL BRING IT
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 00Z. CURRENT
MODEL DATA IS SHOWING AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, WITH A
WEAK THERMAL TROUGH, WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN
COMPLEX WILL TRACK FROM CLOSE TO CLE TO PIT TOWARD JST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY NOT SURE IF THE AREA CAN HOLD ITS SEVERE
FEATURES IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE AREA
THAT IS EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA. USING MODEL DATA TO DELINEATE
THE TIMING, IT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY CLEARING THE AREA BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

NOW BEGINNING TO THINK THAT THE FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN AREA.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR, CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENCE GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK SEEMS TO BE THE
KEY AS LARGE SCALE MODELS AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THE BETTER
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO COME IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. STRONGER INSTABILITY ON ALL
MODELS...MORE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND BETTER MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THINGS TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND HOTTER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD...AS WERE
TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AFTER TUESDAY...CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BUILD TOWARD RIDGING BECOMING
THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...POPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY START TO WANDER DOWNWARD...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO
CREEP UPWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE ONE DAY BEYOND TUESDAY'S
WEATHER TO BECOME REALITY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH WEAKER MIXING WILL
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES SUBDUED SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EPISODES WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT
AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST POPS
ARE GENERALLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY DURING PEAK HEATING...AND ISOLATED
AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL WV.
AREA OF CONVECTION GROWING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND COULD AFFECT OUR
SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT. NO MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCLUDED IN 18Z TAFS...BUT MAY BE NEEDED LATER IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

AREAS OF MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MENTIONED ONLY FOR KZZV AT THIS POINT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND
LATE NIGHT FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-021200-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

OHZ048-057-020015-
COSHOCTON OH-MUSKINGUM OH-
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT COSHOCTON AND MUSKINGUM
COUNTIES...

AT 711 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 22 MILES
NORTH OF MARTINSBURG TO 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOMERSET...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEW GUILFORD...       WALHONDING...         NELLIE...
  DILLON STATE PARK...  COOPERDALE...         EAST FULTONHAM...
  WARSAW...             LAYLAND...            BLISSFIELD...
  ZANESVILLE...         DRAKE...              CONESVILLE...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAY...

I-70 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 143 AND 170.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 3996 8220 4017 8219 4025 8220 4046 8218
      4045 8171 4037 8171 4037 8168 4015 8170
      4015 8172 3982 8172 3982 8218 3990 8217
      3991 8223 3995 8224