Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY...SEVERE WEATHER COULD IMPACT
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...EXTENDING
EAST TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY...WITH ENHANCEMENT PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-35 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT...MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL
PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT BEST LOCAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM ZANESVILLE TO MORGANTOWN. HOWEVER...IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDES ALL LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM NEW PHILADELPHIA TO WHEELING AND LATROBE. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE RACING SOUTHEAST...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LATE MORNING AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR. LOWS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S IN ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY/S FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. STILL UNSURE AS TO JUST HOW PRECIPITATION THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE ON ITS RETURN TRIP. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
ACCELERATED THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE...AND NOW SHOW THAT THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS TIMING SHOULD LIMIT
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FASTER TIMING WILL ALSO
KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS A BIT HIGHER AS WELL WITH THE REGION
RETURNING TO THE WARM SECTOR MORE QUICKLY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE FRONT
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION SLOWLY...THIS COULD PROVIDE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW...SPC HAS DEPICTED A BROAD AREA FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY..INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHILE THE REGION IS IN THE
WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL DIG A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY.

KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BRINGS
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV IN NW FLOW WL SUPPORT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION ALONG SWD SAGGING
CDFNT TODAY. THIS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTS FM PIT SWD
WITH MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS AND TAFS HAVE BEEN CONSTRUCTED
ACCORDINGLY USING THE LATEST HRRR TIMING AND GENL PLACEMENT.

OTHERWISE SFC WND WL VEER TO THE W AND NW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SFC
REFLECTION. BUILDING SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL PORTS BY LATE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENL VFR...BUT WITH PERIODIC CHCS FOR TSRA/ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
TRACK ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
324 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MDZ001-OHZ039-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ029-031-075-076-WVZ002>004-
012-021>023-041-251200-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-
GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-WASHINGTON-GREENE-FAYETTE-
FAYETTE RIDGES-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-
TUCKER-
324 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS A SECONDARY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ040-041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073-074-WVZ001-251200-
CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-
JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-HANCOCK-
324 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
758 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 AM     HAIL             WELLSVILLE              40.60N  80.66W
07/24/2012  M1.75 INCH       COLUMBIANA         OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL AND LARGER HAIL REPORTED .

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200824

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
833 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 AM     HAIL             ROSS TOWNSHIP           40.53N  80.02W
07/24/2012  M0.50 INCH       ALLEGHENY          PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200829

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
839 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 AM     HAIL             PITTSBURGH              40.44N  79.98W
07/24/2012  M1.25 INCH       ALLEGHENY          PA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200830