Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE AFTERNOON ABOVE 90F THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS
PREDICTED AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IS FILLING IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG INSTABILITY S OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE POISED
ALONG I-80 AS OF 17Z.  DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA
RECEIVING NEEDED RAINFALL HOWEVER A SEVERE AND HIGH WATER THREAT
REMAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
BUT THE AMOUNT OF SB INSTABILITY SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND PRODUCE
PULSE STORMS.  WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOST OF THE STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE...BUT WITH DWPTS STILL WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S SOUTH OF I-70 CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT.

12Z NCEP SUITE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE FINER RESOLUTION MODELS
DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...BUT ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
DROPPING A COMPLEX DOWN N OF THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LOWERED POPS FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE BUMPING THEM UP IN NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE CLUSTER OF STORMS PREDICTED LATE
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST TO START OFF THE SHORT TERM WITH A QUESTION
ON AERIAL EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY IN THE N...WHILE LKLY POPS PERSIST S.

TREND CONTINUES OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TAKING ITS SWEET OLD TIME
MOVING SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE DESPITE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
AND STRONGER WINDS BEHIND IT. POPS WERE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY FOR
NRN WV AND WRN MD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED
AS WELL DUE TO LAYER RH IN THE LOWEST 6KFT ABOVE 85%.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD TAKE HOLD SATURDAY.

MOSGUIDEBC USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE LATTER OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL KEEP THE HOT WEATHER /M-U 90S/ AWAY AND PROVIDE MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. ECMWF INDICATES AT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE SUNDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...H5 HEIGHTS BUILD ALLOWING THE MERCURY
TO CLIMB BACK AROUND 90F BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
TERMINALS FM 18-2Z.  IN ADDITION...WHERE IT RAINS TONIGHT A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF IFR RESTRICTIONS EXISTS IN EITHER REDUCED VIS OR
STRATUS.  FKL AND DUJ SHOULD BE POSITIONED IN THE RELATIVELY COOLER
AIRMASS AND MAINTAIN ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO NEGATE IFR DEVELOPMENT.

THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRON DROPS SOUTH FROM NRN PARTS OF OH AND PA.  THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY THROUGH DUSK.  PCPN WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING YIELDING TO MAINLY VFR WX.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR WEATHER IS PREDICTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
432 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-190845-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
432 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW STANTON             40.22N  79.61W
07/18/2012                   WESTMORELAND       PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200757

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
316 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CADIZ                   40.27N  81.00W
07/18/2012                   HARRISON           OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200758

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
321 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW CUMBERLAND          40.50N  80.61W
07/18/2012                   HANCOCK            WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200759

RG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LATROBE                 40.31N  79.38W
07/18/2012                   WESTMORELAND       PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200762

RG