Heat Advisory 2, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EVEN
AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY
BECAUSE OF THE HEAT WILL LIKELY MEAN PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RAPIDLY EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SITUATION AS AN MCS CROSSES THIS AREA
THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY TRAJECTORY HAS THE BOWING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 50
KTS...WITH SEVERAL CELLS EXHIBITING SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS AND
EVEN RADAR/SPOTTER INDICATIONS OF A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE OHIO COUNTIES AND WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE UNTIL 10
PM...WHILE SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE REST OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM. THE FORECAST ALREADY HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
EVOLVING SITUATION...SO THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND THE WATCHES.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAIRLY POTENT SHORT WAVE LOOKS SET TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL INITIALIZATIONS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY WERE FAIRLY GOOD...HOWEVER THE GFS QUICKLY SEEMED TO
GET THE SYSTEM LOST IN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN REGIONAL ALL
DEPICTED THE SYSTEM SIMILARLY THROUGH SATURDAY...TRACKING IT
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA YET AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH YET
ANOTHER STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE CARDS...AND
TEMPERATURES AGAIN SURGING INTO THE 90S...CAPE VALUES BY AFTERNOON
SHOOT UP INTO THE 2500-4000 J/KG RANGE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES
AROUND -9. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A
DEEP LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 700 MB UP TO 400 MB OF NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE
THETA-E LAPSE RATES SHOULD REALLY YIELD AN UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY RESULTING FROM THE LOW LEVEL ADVECTION
BEING A VERY EFFECTIVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MECHANISM. SPC HAS
AGAIN PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC LIFT...THIS SEEMS EASILY
PRUDENT.

BEYOND SATURDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST GET RATHER MURKY.
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY-TO-DAY...AND THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN CHANGES EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE. THE PROBLEM QUICKLY
BECOMES TRACKING AND TIMING ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE RATHER FLAT
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFY. THE TIMING OF CONVECTION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS IN FLOW. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT AT
GETTING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WOULD BE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 22Z.
CONFIDENCE IS GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR KZZV...KHLG AND KMGW DURING
EARLY EVENING.

AREAS OF MVFR HAZE CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS.

WEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS
TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-040-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ041.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020-021-029-
     031-073-075.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-302000-
GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075-WVZ022-302000-
BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-MONONGALIA-
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
OF WHICH HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WVZ021-302000-
MARION-
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OHZ041-302000-
COLUMBIANA-
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PAZ007>009-013>016-022-023-302000-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-ARMSTRONG-
INDIANA-
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ039-040-048>050-057>059-068-069-WVZ001>004-012-302000-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-
GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
626 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMBRIDGE               40.02N  81.59W
06/29/2012                   GUERNSEY           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200536

RG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLUE ROCK               39.80N  81.89W
06/29/2012                   MUSKINGUM          OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. ROOF BLOWN OFF. GARAGE DESTROYED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200538

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
647 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMBRIDGE               40.02N  81.59W
06/29/2012                   GUERNSEY           OH   PUBLIC

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200539

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
652 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLD WASHINGTON          40.04N  81.44W
06/29/2012                   GUERNSEY           OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0630 PM     HAIL             OLD WASHINGTON          40.04N  81.44W
06/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       GUERNSEY           OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200540
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200541

RG