Flood Watch 3, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Belmont County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Forest County, PA, Greene County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Brooke County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Wetzel County, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1027 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...COMBINED WITH NORTHBOUND
HURRICANE...WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF CHILLY RAIN DURING THE
UPCOMING DAYS. FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY
MAKING FLOODING A POSSIBILITY...PLUS IT CAN BE WINDY. THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME SNOWFALL...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION ON THE RIDGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON TRENDS IN RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA PLUS RECENT HRRR
MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT POSTFRONTAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE I-79 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
INITIAL BAND BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

PER RECENT SURFACE DATA...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
HIGHER WV-MD MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...MAINLY DUE TO LOW BASED
CLOUDS INTERSECTING THE RIDGE TOPS...WHICH SHOULD BE LIFTING
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY INTO EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THE INITIAL PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS ARE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT IN CONVERGING THE DEEPENING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF SANDY
IN THIS ZONE. PRECIP PROBABILITIES HAVE THUS BEEN CONSTRUCTED
USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND NAM. AFTER A LATE DAY PCPN
REDUCTION FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK...THE
FORECAST RE-ESCALATES POPS BACK TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS TONIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MID LVL FRONT.

SANDY IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND PHASE WITH
THE COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH...AND RESULT IN A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO IS IMPROVING...THE FORECAST
FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS NOW OF PROLONGED RAIN...WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTS OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND LATER
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PARAMETER SHOULD CURRENTLY
PROGGED SPEEDS BE CONTINUED. IN ADDITION...ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS
CONTINUED OVER THE RIDGES AS COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO WRAP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM LATER ON MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.

RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY EXCEED TWO INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK IS THUS ON THE INCREASE...AND
THAT MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONG LOW RESULTING FROM THE PHASING OF HURRICANE SANDY AND
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THUS CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER TERRAIN AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW EASTBOUND COLD FRONT HAVING REACHED THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...EXPECT POSTFRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS
CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALES SUCH
AS KPIT AND KHLG CAN REMAIN IFR UNTIL 18Z.

VISIBILITIES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BECOME
MVFR AT TIMES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT
GENERALLY 6 TO 12 KTS INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE RAIN-MOISTENED SURFACE LAYER NOCTURNAL COOLS TOWARD
SATURATION.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM SANDY COMBINED WITH A COLD CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING FREQUENT IFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH WET SNOW AT KMGW/KZZV MAY START
AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW MIXING IN
WITH RAIN FOR THE PITTSBURGH TERMINALS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 20KTS WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE CONSERVATIVELY
FORECAST IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OVER THE MONONGAHELA AND ALLEGHENY
RIVER BASINS. THE CONSERVATIVE PROGNOSIS RESULTS FROM LINGERING
DISPARITY AMONG FORECAST MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ACTUAL TRACK. AS A REFERENCE...GUIDANCE FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER HAS BROAD BRUSHED IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES ACROSS
THOSE SAME AREAS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

SHOULD EITHER OF THESE TOTAL BE REALIZED ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS...THEN
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WOULD OCCUR BY LATER ON MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY...WITH RIVER FLOODING FOLLOWING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

FOR NOW...A MENTION OF SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL FOLLOW DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD THE SITUATION MATERIALIZE FURTHER.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

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