Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Paducah, KY

March 15, 2012Christian County, Muhlenberg County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 15, 2012, 3:11 PM CDT for Christian County, Muhlenberg County, Kentucky. It was in force for 19 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 15, 2012, 3:11 PM CDT (20:11 UTC)
Expired: Mar 15, 2012, 3:30 PM CDT
In force: 19 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Christian County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1726 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 820 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 90 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 108 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

746 
WUUS53 KPAH 152011
SVRPAH
KYC047-177-152030-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0088.120315T2011Z-120315T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT.

* AT 309 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  WEIR...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
  GREENVILLE...CENTRAL CITY...WEIR...POWDERLY...DUNMOR AND
  DRAKESBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3704 8725 3706 8735 3713 8738 3718 8731
      3721 8733 3734 8713 3733 8711 3738 8706
      3737 8704 3731 8697 3727 8697 3721 8689
      3718 8689 3715 8692 3713 8689 3708 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 248DEG 57KT 3713 8726
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

1 follow-up statement

668 
WWUS53 KPAH 152018
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYC047-152027-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-120315T2030Z/
CHRISTIAN KY-
318 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3708 8689 3706 8724 3721 8733 3730 8719
      3734 8713 3733 8711 3738 8705 3731 8697
      3727 8697 3721 8689 3718 8689 3715 8692
      3713 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 248DEG 57KT 3716 8715

$$

KYC177-152030-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-120315T2030Z/
MUHLENBERG KY-
318 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUHLENBERG
COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 314 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
WEIR...OR NEAR GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3708 8689 3706 8724 3721 8733 3730 8719
      3734 8713 3733 8711 3738 8705 3731 8697
      3727 8697 3721 8689 3718 8689 3715 8692
      3713 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 248DEG 57KT 3716 8715
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 15, 3:11 PM CDT, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 3:11 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

ANOTHER MCV IN THE VICINITY OF LIVINGSTON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS HAS DEVELOP ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS
STORMS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE PULSY LARGE HAIL.
GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE AIRMASS IS OVER OUR AREA...WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI SURVIVE DEEP INTO
OUR AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN FOUR COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

BEEN REAL BUSY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY...SO WILL BE BRIEF. THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS BASICALLY THE SAME...WARM AND
HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST SOME
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANYTHING THAT MAKES IT INTO THE WEST SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SEE LITTLE
TANGIBLE REASON FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...SO
TRENDED QUICKLY DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MCV THIS
EVENING.

COULD SEE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST...SO RAMPED CHANCE POPS BACK UP A BIT THEN. WILL
SEE A LULL WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. BACK TO DIURNAL CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN IT SEEMS THAT THE RIDGE MAY FINALLY
DRY US OUT SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST
LIFTS AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN
CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND SHOULD START REACHING AT LEAST OUR WESTERN SECTIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS AND THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST BREAKS DOWN.

WENT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO MEX VALUES AS THE BLENDED APPROACH
LOWERS THEM TOO FAST. ALSO RAISED DEW POINTS BASED UPON CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOS GOING TOO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A FINAL LINE OF STORMS MAY FLIRT WITH KOWB IN
THE NEXT HOUR...BUT OTHERWISE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
OVER FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WILL BE VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM....PS
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 15, 5:00 AM CDT, 10 hours 11 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
500 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR LARGER...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT
OF THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. IN ADDITION... LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 15, 1:13 PM CDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
113 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             4 NW FORT BRANCH        38.29N 87.63W
03/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       GIBSON             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Mar 15, 1:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
147 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     HAIL             PETERSBURG              38.49N 87.28W
03/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       PIKE               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Mar 15, 1:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
156 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             PETERSBURG              38.49N 87.28W
03/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       PIKE               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ADDITIONAL REPORT. HAIL LASTING FOR NEARLY 5 MINUTES.
            WIND GUSTS 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Mar 15, 2:22 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
222 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             2 SE MURRAY             36.59N 88.29W
03/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL SOUTHEAST OF TOWN.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Mar 15, 2:36 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             HAMLIN                  36.60N 88.08W
03/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Mar 15, 2:53 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             2 W HOPKINSVILLE        36.85N 87.53W
03/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED WEST OF TOWN.

&&

SMITTY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 15, 12:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian	23 min
Mar 15, 1:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Daviess	31 min
Mar 15, 1:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Muhlenberg	30 min
Mar 15, 2:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway	32 min
Mar 15, 2:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Muhlenberg, Todd	37 min
Mar 15, 2:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian	26 min
Mar 15, 2:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Trigg	31 min
Mar 15, 3:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian	30 min
Mar 15, 3:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Daviess	24 min
Mar 15, 4:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Daviess	13 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.