Severe Thunderstorm Warning 411, NWS Paducah, KY

917 
WWUS53 KPAH 080028
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
728 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ILC047-185-191-080045-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0411.000000T0000Z-120908T0045Z/
WABASH IL-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS IL-
728 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WAYNE COUNTY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN EDWARDS AND NORTHERN WABASH
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 724 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 28 MILES NORTH OF CALHOUN TO 9 
MILES NORTHEAST OF CALHOUN TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CISNE...MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE 
DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 3861 8815 3857 8814 3857 8769 3856 8769
      3826 8837 3826 8868 3849 8871 3862 8868
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 299DEG 37KT 3900 8781 3874 8790
          3845 8851
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.88IN

$$
PS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1248 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.NEAR TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

SOME OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW IS FROM AN UPDATE AT 1141 AM.

UPDATED SKY FORECAST...AS IT WAS TOO PESSIMISTIC. NAM TEMPS ALSO
QUITE A WAYS OFF. SIDED WITH WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS AND BLENDED
THEM WITH OUR EXISTING NUMBERS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THERE IS NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION ALONG A BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA...BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE HEADING OFF TO THE EAST. HERE IS THE LATEST THINKING
ON THE SEVERE WEATHER / THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FIRST...LOOKING AS VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND H5 ANALYSIS...HARD TO
SAY WHAT THE FOCUS WILL BE EARLY ON. THAT MEANS OUR CONFIDENCE IN
THE MESO SCALE MODELS IS LOW AT BEST. HINTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PER ACCAS AND ENHANCED CLOUDS ON VISIBLE...BUT VERY WEAK FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT SUPPORT AND ASSOC CONVECTION
SOUTH OF JOPLIN COULD ORGANIZE WITH TIME AND HEAD EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...MAYBE EVEN REACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY
EVENING. THIS MAY NOT BE TOO UNREASONABLE...GIVEN THE MODELS
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR THIS. THEN OF COURSE YOU HAVE THE
FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH THE HRRR HAS FROM ECNTRL
IL TO NEAR KSTL INTO SW MISSOURI AROUND 00Z. CONVECTION IS LINED
OUT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND IT.

WE HAVE NEW POP GRIDS...TAILORED TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION COMING IN FROM THE WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. BEST WE CAN DO GIVEN THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS.

AS FAR AS SEVERE TYPE. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS. MAIN
DIFFERENCE SYNOPTICALLY IS A STRONG FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA...AND ANY ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF IT
CONVECTION CAN ACT UPON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORECAST POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SEVERE WINDS
SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD...ESPECIALLY SHOULD ANY CLUSTERS
BECOME SELF SUSTAINING AND ORGANIZED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER...SO A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT IS IN PLAY. TORNADIC
POSSIBILITY SHOULD BE LOW GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL WIND FIELDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE PESKY SPIN UPS WHERE NEAR STORM RELATIVE FLOW
ENVIRONMENT MAY SEE ENHANCED SHEAR.

TONIGHT...BEST CHANCE POPS FROM 03Z THROUGH 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES
STEADILY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED
SO BUMPED UP POPS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ENDING PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

STAY TUNED...PROBABILITY OF A WATCH OF SOME KIND IS LIKELY HIGH
GIVEN SPC/S SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.

.SHORT/LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS PERIOD WILL START WITH THE MEAN TROUGH ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT
WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL/ CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY...SLOWLY MODERATING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL TAKE MOST OF THE WEEK TO PUSH EAST OF
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...SO THERE WILL BE A SLOW BUT GRADUAL RISE
IN DAILY TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 80S...PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS...MAINLY SUNSHINE...GIVEN MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO MOVE A FRONT CLOSE THE THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA BY LATE NEXT FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS LOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE INCREASES LATE AFTERNOON INTO FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NOT
DEVIATE MUCH FROM CURRENT TAFS AND INDICATE DECENT PROBABILITIES
FOR CONVECTION AFTER 21-23Z...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE
MODELS INDICATE POST FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY AS WELL. BEST
CHANCE TIME FRAME FOR BROAD SCALE COVERAGE IS 03Z-09Z. BY
12Z...THE AREA SHOULD BE CLEAR OF CONVECTION. CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS STILL IN PLAY AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES AT SOME
POINT ALONG WITH LOW END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM/AVIATION...NOLES
SHORT/LONG TERM....SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SMALL...BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY THAT COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE. A
TRANSITION FROM A SEVERE WEATHER RISK...TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN SOME STANDING WATER
IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
503 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARBLE HILL             37.30N 89.98W
09/06/2012                   BOLLINGER          MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND THE CITY LIMITS

&&

DLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
528 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-092-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-080015-
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-UNION IL-ALEXANDER-
PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-
STODDARD-SCOTT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...PINCKNEYVILLE...
WEST FRANKFORT...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...JONESBORO...CAIRO...
PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...
VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON
528 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH 7 PM...

THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...IS EXPECTED MOVE NEAR A
LINE FROM PERRYVILLE MISSOURI AND SAM A BAKER PARK...TO WEST OF
POPLAR BLUFF AROUND 6 PM CDT. THIS LINE WILL MOVE NEAR A MOUNT
VERNON AND GRAND TOWER ILLINOIS...MARBLE HILL AND PUXICO MISSOURI
LINE BY 7 PM.

IF YOU SEE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA...SEEK COVER
IMMEDIATELY. THE STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER MISSOURI HAVE
HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

LOOK FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE EXPECTED WITH
THE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COVERS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
648 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SEDGEWICKVILLE          37.52N 89.91W
09/07/2012                   BOLLINGER          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

DLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ILZ075>078-080>083-INZ081-085-080115-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-GIBSON-POSEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...FORT BRANCH...POSEYVILLE
649 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

A SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR 45 MPH.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE WILL MOVE NEAR A LINE FROM JUST EAST
OF COULTERVILLE TO DIX AT 715 PM...ONWARD TO A SESSER...WEST SALEM
ILLINOIS LINE BETWEEN 745 PM AND 8 PM CDT. SOME OBSERVED WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE PF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF
45 MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD LAST UP TO A
HALF HOUR BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
652 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E PATTON              37.44N 90.00W
09/07/2012                   BOLLINGER          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
655 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK RIDGE               37.50N 89.73W
09/07/2012                   CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A LARGE HIGHWAY SIGN IS BLOCKING ONE LANE OF I-55 AT OAK
            RIDGE EXIT. THIS IS JUNCTION OF ROUTE E AND I-55.

&&

DLL