Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
246 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO GO THRU EASTERN 1/2 FA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION IS BEST. HOWVER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION INCOMING THIS AM MAY ACT TO THWART SAID PM
DESTABILIZATION...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LAID OUT.
EITHER WAY FRONT DOES INITIATE/ACTIVATE AGAIN IN PM...AND HIGH CHC
TO LOW LIKELY EVENT DEVELOPS AS FRONT MOVES ON THRU WEST TO EAST
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DRIVING IT. THIS EXTENDS POPS INTO FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF PASSES...THEN DRIER/COOLER AIR
INFILTRATES STARTING TOMORROW AND LASTING THRU MID WEEK.

SLGT RISK SVR CONTINUES MAINLY THIS PM/EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT FOR MAINLY PAH FA GENERALLY EAST OF MS RIVER...PRIMARY
HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BUT ISOLD TOR RISK AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

A TRANSITION FROM QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TRANSITION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
OVERALL LATE WEEK PATTERN. IN FACT...LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSING THE PRECIPITATION EVENT INTO A MORE NARROW WINDOW FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AS A CONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THURSDAY NOW
APPEARS IT COULD REMAIN DRY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH
BETTER RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON EVEN WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE
AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THURSDAY COULD
BE JUST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. IF THE
DAY STARTS OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO SURGE INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOCUSED
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH. WILL KEEP LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
GOING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC ON FRIDAY JUST
YET AS TIMING COULD STILL MODIFY SOME IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE REFRESHINGLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY AIR
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO RAPID WARMING...WHICH ARGUES FOR A WARM BIAS TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
MARKEDLY COOLER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES SO FAR BELOW NORMAL...MOS
GUIDANCE MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A COOL BIAS IF IT IS TRENDING
TEMPERATURES UP TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT. AS A RESULT...
DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS. LOWS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW MOS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY TSRA. SHRA/TSTM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
335 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS EXPECTED
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY ALERT IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED
LATER TODAY.