Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Paducah, KY

896 
WWUS53 KPAH 010042
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
742 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

INC147-173-010115-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0345.000000T0000Z-120801T0115Z/
SPENCER IN-WARRICK IN-
742 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WARRICK AND
WESTERN SPENCER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 740 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF BOONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 
25 MPH.

LAT...LON 3790 8704 3786 8707 3792 8736 3795 8741
      3794 8745 3803 8745 3804 8746 3817 8747
      3821 8701 3794 8698
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 337DEG 23KT 3800 8727
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

MOST 12Z MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY GENERATING CONVECTION WITH THE
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP A
BAND OF VERY SLIGHT POPS NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WILL FOCUS SLIGHT POPS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE FRONT ONLY OOZES THROUGH
THAT AREA.

OF BIGGER CONCERN WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DRYING/COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LOOKING AT METARS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS LIKELY TO
REACH THE AREA...LET ALONE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. GENERALLY HELD UP
DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND COOLER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...SHADED HIGHS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY. HEAT
INDICES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ARE
FORECAST TO REACH UP TO AROUND 108...BUT LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN
THE HWO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS ALONE IN SWEEPING CONVECTION
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO
FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SPREAD SLIGHT POPS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA...AND CONFINED LOW CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 90S...BUT NOT
AS HIGH AS THE RAW NAM12 DATA WOULD SUGGEST. MID 90S ARE FORECAST
IN THE FAR WEST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THERE. THERE
SHOULD BE QUITE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100 TO 104...BUT CONFIDENCE IN BOTH
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...MORE
SIGNIFICANT EMPHASIS WAS PLACED ON THE ECMWF/GEM...AKA CANADIAN
SOLUTION. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED WITH THIS PACKAGE.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFTS FROM
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...WITH THICKNESSES
INCREASING WITH WEAK RIDGING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DURING
THIS TIME...THE POPS/WEATHER IS SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF
WEST KENTUCKY.

AS ADVERTISED WITH THE MONDAY FORECAST PACKAGE...A STRONGER...BUT
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE /NOW BECOMING A CLOSED LOW/ MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHARPENS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES THE HIGHEST POPS/WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA /MAINLY SERN
IL...SW IN AND W KY/ FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND /SUNDAY/. HAD
ORIGINALLY CONSIDERED LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT KEPT
IN HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

NEXT MONDAY WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR DECREASING
POPS/WEATHER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AS THE MEAN
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE.

GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST SOUTH...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THOSE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND
WEATHER.

THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES...RANGING BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES
EACH AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD RETURN
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL BE
MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
FOOTHILLS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/ NORTH OF THE SHAWNEE NATIONAL
FOREST/...AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT IN THESE
AREAS...HELPING TO DRY OUT SHORT TERM FUELS WHETTED BY RECENT RAINS.
TRANSPORT WINDS AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT
/DEFINITELY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH AT THE PEAK/...SO ANY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER/WILDFIRE CONCERNS BASED ON WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT A
MINIMUM.

BEYOND THURSDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED TO
PRECLUDE AND CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL
POSE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS AT KEVV/KOWB EARLY THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST STORM CORES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. RAPID CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY CAUSING ISOLATED
STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FAR SW AT KPAH/KCGI. POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT
AND EARLY IN THE MORNING AS SKIES BECOME CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON
WEDNESDAY...A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION CONCERNS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM....SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
403 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
403 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE
64 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY UNDER
100. HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TO
COVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST
KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN
100 TO 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED
TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND A SMALL CHANCE MAY EVEN LINGER INTO MONDAY. A
STRAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS EACH DAY...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
703 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             NEWBURGH                37.95N 87.40W
07/31/2012  E0.88 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO REPORTS OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN NEWBURGH

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
705 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             2 N NEWBURGH            37.98N 87.40W
07/31/2012  E1.75 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
707 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             NEWBURGH                37.95N 87.40W
07/31/2012  E1.75 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL

&&

RST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
711 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEWBURGH                37.95N 87.40W
07/31/2012  E65 MPH          WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED HEALTHY 10 INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN
            IN YARD.

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
714 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             CHANDLER                38.04N 87.37W
07/31/2012  E1.50 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS DOWN WITH POWER OUT AT A FEW HOMES

&&

RST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
729 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             NEWBURGH                37.95N 87.40W
07/31/2012  E1.75 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER SAW SOME ROTATION/POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD

&&

RST