Severe Thunderstorm Warning 339, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
652 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS LIKELY KEEPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
TO ISOLATED COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING DESPITE THE WARM HUMID NEAR
SURFACE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS SHOULD TEND
TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING. WILL ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS
WEATHER PERMITS.

ALSO UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR A MOSTLY
DRY AND LESS HUMID WEEKEND COMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
TAKES OVER AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS NWLY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT MAY RETURN LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MS RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL SOMETIMES COMBINE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SYSTEMS...SO WILL GO
WITH AT LEAST SMALL STORM CHCS ALONG AND NE OF THIS FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUL27 2012

MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY BRINGING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GEM SHOWS MINIMAL QPF AS IT BRINGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MORE QUICKLY AND THEN GENERATES BETTER QPF
TO OUR SOUTH.  STAYING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS...WENT WITH BETTER
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGHER POPS FOCUSED
IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.  ECMWF THEN DRIES THINGS OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS LINGERS SOME PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF...AND WENT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW.

THE FORECAST REMAINS FUZZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS
OUR REGION CONTINUE TO BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  POPS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...AND INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY WHEN THE ECMWF SHOWS AND UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE A LITTLE THROUGH MID
WEEK...AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CREEP
BACK ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AT KEVV AND KOWB. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.
FOR THE AVIATION TERMINALS...THIS WOULD IMPACT MAINLY KCGI.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN PICK UP FROM THE NORTH NEAR 10 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.......RJP
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION.....RJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S DELTA               37.18N 89.74W
07/27/2012  E70 MPH          CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOT OF TREE BRANCHES DOWN. VERY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
            WITH THE STORM.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             7 N POPLAR BLUFF        36.87N 90.41W
07/27/2012  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED. WINDS ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH
            ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM. DOWNED TREES REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY