Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

NOW THAT STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE JUST NW OF OUR AREA ALONG THE
MS RIVER...WILL GO WITH LIKELY STORM CHANCES FROM MW TO SE DURING
THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS STATED THERE IS A 60 PERCENT JUST OF ISSUING A WATCH
BOX FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER OM THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

UPDATED MAINLY TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY UNTIL ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ALSO INCREASED DEW POINTS...WHICH PUSHES AFTN
HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION FOR THE NEW 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

PLEASE SEE ABOVE UPDATE DISCUSSION REGARDING SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH IS ENTERING OUR
FORECAST AREA AS I TYPE THIS MESSAGE. STILL UNCERTAINTIES AS TO
THE SIGNIFICANCE THE STORMS WILL ACHIEVE. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
THERMAL INHIBITION WHERE THE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FORM.
HOWEVER...THIS IS PROGGED BY MOST NEAR TERM MODELS TO DISSIPATE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR
IN SE MO AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IF STORMS INC ERASE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WILL PROBABLY
ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THAT REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR A MOSTLY
DRY AND LESS HUMID WEEKEND COMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
TAKES OVER AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS NWLY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT MAY RETURN LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MS RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL SOMETIMES COMBINE WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SYSTEMS...SO WILL GO
WITH AT LEAST SMALL STORM CHCS ALONG AND NE OF THIS FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUL27 2012

MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY BRINGING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GEM SHOWS MINIMAL QPF AS IT BRINGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MORE QUICKLY AND THEN GENERATES BETTER QPF
TO OUR SOUTH.  STAYING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS...WENT WITH BETTER
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGHER POPS FOCUSED
IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.  ECMWF THEN DRIES THINGS OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS LINGERS SOME PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF...AND WENT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW.

THE FORECAST REMAINS FUZZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS
OUR REGION CONTINUE TO BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  POPS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...AND INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY WHEN THE ECMWF SHOWS AND UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE A LITTLE THROUGH MID
WEEK...AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CREEP
BACK ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FROM AROUND 21Z THROUGH ABOUT 02Z OR
SO FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST INTO VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO FORM...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. FOR NOW...NOTHING ON THE
RADAR...AND WILL ONLY GO WITH VCTS UNTIL THE SITUATION BECOMES
MORE CLEAR. MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS TODAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MEFFERT
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...MEFFERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S DELTA               37.18N 89.74W
07/27/2012  E70 MPH          CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOT OF TREE BRANCHES DOWN. VERY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
            WITH THE STORM.

&&

SMITTY