Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

DELAYED DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER.

CURRENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AT 4 AM CST. MAINTENANCE OF THE TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TAP INTO INCREASING
BULK SHEAR ABOVE 60 KTS...HELICITIES ABOVE 500 M2/S2...AND MOIST
UNSTABLE CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG THROUGH 6 AM CST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS AND
DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

ANOTHER ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETAE ADVECTION IS
APPEARING TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY AS OF 10Z. THIS MAY AID IN THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SUPERCELL/TORNADO THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
SOME REGENERATION AND INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM CST.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...PER THE 3KM
HRRR 1 KM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS THROUGH NOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z-06Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO HAVE A CONSISTENT
HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION AND WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH THE SHORT TERM UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS QUITE HIGH. THE
ONLY POPS ARE ON SUNDAY WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SWEEP A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THEY GENERATE A SATURATED LAYER WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 700MB...WHICH IS IN THE -15
TO -25 DEGREE RANGE. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT SUNDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB...SO
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG MIXING.

SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS BRING THE VERY ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. FOR NOW
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ONLY ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA...REGARDLESS OF
PRECIPITATION. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE ODD
POTENTIALS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR A CHANGE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE MONDAY...AND
VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BACK INTO THE 60S. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HOLD OFF OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TIL AT LAST WEDNESDAY...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORMS
APPROACH. THEN...PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE FUSTINESS SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET...AND WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...DRS/SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
347 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
347 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A FORWARD MOVEMENT AROUND 50 MPH. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A
SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS.

THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE QUAD STATE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NEAR THE BOOTHEEL REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IF NOT ALREADY ACTIVATED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS STILL REQUESTED FOR PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING.

IF YOU CAN SAFELY DO SO...AND CONFIRMED REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS IS ENCOURAGED. PLEASE REPORT
ANY HAIL SIZE IN COMPARISON TO THE TO THE SIZE OF A COIN OR THE
ACTUAL DIAMETER IN INCHES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE ALSO NEEDED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
440 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DEXTER                  36.79N 89.96W
02/29/2012                   STODDARD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITH LARGE AMOUNT OF TREE DEBRIS.
            WINDS ESTIMATED 55 MPH.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
441 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 AM     HAIL             NEELYVILLE              36.56N 90.51W
02/29/2012  M1.75 INCH       BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF
            NEELYVILLE.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
443 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S MARION              37.70N 88.94W
02/29/2012                   WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO. POWER FLASHES SOUTH OF MARION ILLINOIS
            APPEARS TO BE ELECTRICAL TRANSFORMERS BLOWING UP.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
445 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     HAIL             6 S MARION              37.65N 88.94W
02/29/2012  M0.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF MARION ILLINOIS.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
457 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W HARRISBURG          37.74N 88.62W
02/29/2012                   SALINE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ELECTRICAL TRANSFORMERS FLASHING WEST OF HARRISBURG.
            POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
459 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 AM     TORNADO          2 SW HARRISBURG         37.72N 88.58W
02/29/2012                   SALINE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CONFIRMED TORNADO BY TRAINED SPOTTER. APPROACHING THE
            SOUTH SIDE OF HARRISBURG.

&&

SMITTY