Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Paducah, KY

July 19, 2012Caldwell County, Christian County, Trigg County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2012, 7:08 PM CDT for Caldwell County, Christian County, Trigg County, Kentucky. It was in force for 22 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2012, 7:08 PM CDT (00:08 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2012, 7:30 PM CDT
In force: 22 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Caldwell County, KY, Christian County, KY, Trigg County, KY

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2853 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1475 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

184 
WUUS53 KPAH 200008
SVRPAH
KYC033-047-221-200030-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0306.120720T0008Z-120720T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
708 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  NORTHEASTERN TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 703 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
  MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COBB...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  PRINCETON...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND
  NORTHEASTERN TRIGG COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 8769 3691 8767 3689 8789 3707 8786
      3709 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 000DEG 20KT 3699 8777
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 3:31 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 3:31 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR CWA...WE HAVE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
WEAK CAP HOLDING THINGS BACK ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA.

THE HRRR-3KM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NE-SW AND BISECTING OUR CWA WITHING
THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS...THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. WITH
PLENTY OF HEAT AND INSTABILITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST
THREAT. THERE MAY BE A REPORT OR TWO OF LARGE HAIL...BUT WITH IT
SO WARM ALOFT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 70 DEGREES...VERY
DIFFICULT FOR LARGE HAIL TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED H5 TROF IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE
JUST CLEAR OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY
(7 PM FRIDAY). THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND
LIFT WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ONLY PROVIDE
A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT BY SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 90S...BUT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ON SUNDAY/MON...THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE OF
ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE ALOFT...AND A GENTLE SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO PREVENT
MEASURABLE RAIN FROM OCCURRING. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WAY BACK UP
WELL INTO THE 90S DURING THE DAY. BY TUE...ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORTEX OVER ERN CANADA IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WINDS ALOFT
OVER OUR AREA AND COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
MAINLY IN THE NERN HALF. TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...THE RIDGE SHOULD
SHOW SIGNS OF REBUILDING...AND THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT. IT
WILL BE BACK TO ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FIRES ON TERRAIN FEATURES
OR SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THEN EXPANDS ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
BY DAY 6/7/WED/THU...AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY BE RIGHT BACK TO 100
DEGREES. WITH DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN TO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON...
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH 100 BY TUE...INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY
WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENTLY FUEL MOISTURE IS THE ONLY PARAMETER KEEPING US IN AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS RH NEARING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT
RH LEVELS COULD BE LOWER THAN FCST IF SOME OF THE MODELS VERIFY.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS AND THEIR POOR PERFORMANCE
THIS SEASON NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO MUCH LOWER WITH RH AT THIS
TIME. ON THE PLUS SIDE WE SHOULD NOT REACH WIND CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND SO THE WORST WE EXPECT IS AN...ELEVATED RISK...DUE TO RH
AND FUEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ089>094.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>088.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ110>112-114.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>109.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>013-
     015>017-020>022.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ014-
     018-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....DB

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 12:47 PM CDT, 6 hours 21 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201800-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. REFER TO THE
PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST...AND THIS INCLUDES A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. SHOULD A SEVERE
STORM OCCUR...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS SHOULD THEIR ACTIVATION
BECOME NEEDED.

JP

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 5:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
517 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ILZ091-KYZ010-192300-
CRITTENDEN KY-HARDIN IL-
517 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STURGIS...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN HARDIN AND NORTHERN
  CRITTENDEN COUNTIES.

JP

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 5:22 PM CDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
522 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

KYZ016-192245-
HOPKINS KY-
522 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 517 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PROVIDENCE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN HOPKINS COUNTY.

JP

Local storm report, Jul 19, 5:51 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
551 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND GST     EARLINGTON              37.27N 87.52W
07/19/2012  M66 MPH          HOPKINS            KY   MESONET

            MEASURED FROM KY MESONET MEAR THE COMMUNITY OF
            EARLINGTON.

&&

SMITTTY

Local storm report, Jul 19, 5:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND GST     EARLINGTON              37.27N 87.52W
07/19/2012  M66.00 MPH       HOPKINS            KY   MESONET

            MEASURED FROM KY MESONET NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF
            EARLINGTON.

&&

SMITTTY

Local storm report, Jul 19, 6:18 PM CDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             6 W BEULAH              37.29N 87.77W
07/19/2012  M1.00 INCH       HOPKINS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED WEST OF BEULAH.

&&

SMITTY

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 6:37 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
637 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

KYZ013-016-017-200015-
CALDWELL KY-CHRISTIAN KY-HOPKINS KY-
637 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 636 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DAWSON SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN CALDWELL...EXTREME
  SOUTHWESTERN HOPKINS AND NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTIES.

JP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 7:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian, Trigg	27 min
Jul 19, 10:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Christian, Trigg	35 min
Jul 19, 10:29 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Caldwell, Christian, Todd, Trigg	3 hr
Jul 19, 10:48 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Daviess, Henderson	78 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.