Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Paducah, KY

478 
WWUS53 KPAH 192159
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
459 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

KYC101-192208-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-120719T2215Z/
HENDERSON KY-
459 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3781 8756 3769 8764 3778 8776 3783 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 299DEG 12KT 3777 8767

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR CWA...WE HAVE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
WEAK CAP HOLDING THINGS BACK ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA.

THE HRRR-3KM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NE-SW AND BISECTING OUR CWA WITHING
THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS...THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. WITH
PLENTY OF HEAT AND INSTABILITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST
THREAT. THERE MAY BE A REPORT OR TWO OF LARGE HAIL...BUT WITH IT
SO WARM ALOFT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 70 DEGREES...VERY
DIFFICULT FOR LARGE HAIL TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED H5 TROF IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE
JUST CLEAR OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY
(7 PM FRIDAY). THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND
LIFT WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

UNFORTUNATELY THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ONLY PROVIDE
A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT BY SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 90S...BUT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ON SUNDAY/MON...THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE OF
ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE ALOFT...AND A GENTLE SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO PREVENT
MEASURABLE RAIN FROM OCCURRING. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WAY BACK UP
WELL INTO THE 90S DURING THE DAY. BY TUE...ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORTEX OVER ERN CANADA IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WINDS ALOFT
OVER OUR AREA AND COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
MAINLY IN THE NERN HALF. TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...THE RIDGE SHOULD
SHOW SIGNS OF REBUILDING...AND THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT. IT
WILL BE BACK TO ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FIRES ON TERRAIN FEATURES
OR SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THEN EXPANDS ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
BY DAY 6/7/WED/THU...AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY BE RIGHT BACK TO 100
DEGREES. WITH DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN TO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON...
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH 100 BY TUE...INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY
WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENTLY FUEL MOISTURE IS THE ONLY PARAMETER KEEPING US IN AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS RH NEARING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT
RH LEVELS COULD BE LOWER THAN FCST IF SOME OF THE MODELS VERIFY.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS AND THEIR POOR PERFORMANCE
THIS SEASON NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO MUCH LOWER WITH RH AT THIS
TIME. ON THE PLUS SIDE WE SHOULD NOT REACH WIND CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND SO THE WORST WE EXPECT IS AN...ELEVATED RISK...DUE TO RH
AND FUEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ089>094.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>088.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ110>112-114.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>109.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>013-
     015>017-020>022.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ014-
     018-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201800-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. REFER TO THE
PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST...AND THIS INCLUDES A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. SHOULD A SEVERE
STORM OCCUR...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS SHOULD THEIR ACTIVATION
BECOME NEEDED.

JP