Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Paducah, KY

420 
WWUS53 KPAH 191859
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
159 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

MOC207-191915-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0301.000000T0000Z-120719T1915Z/
STODDARD MO-
159 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
STODDARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 155 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF BLOOMFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

LAT...LON 3691 8985 3695 8982 3694 8972 3683 8978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 297DEG 9KT 3691 8982
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1242 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ONE MORE DAY OF STIFLING HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH HEADLINES TO CONVEY THE
MESSAGE. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING OF 4 DAYS OR MORE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR OUR NORTH LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH STRAIGHT OUT 1 DAY
CRITERIA POSSIBLE AS HEAT INDICES APPROACH 110 WITH TEMPS AROUND
100 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD BE ACHIEVED AND SO WE'VE EXPANDED
THE ADVISORY TO COVER OUR ENTIRE AREA...COLLABORATES WELL WITH OUR
EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OR BETTER TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL SPARK CONVECTION TODAY WHEN IT MOVES IN.
IT WILL TAKE SHAPE AS A ROBUST SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES EAST WHERE LITTLE TO NO CAP WILL EXIST AND SLGT
RISK IS OUTLOOKED. CHANCES WILL SPIKE ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES THRU LATE TODAY-TONIGHT-DEPARTING FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN CHANCES
WILL LINGER...THOUGH LATEST RUNS SUGGEST IT'S OUT/WITH ITS CHANCES
BY FRI PM...SO WE MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL RELATIVELY HOT. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
FCST AS WELL. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS EVERYDAY EXCEPT MAYBE
SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF TEMPERATURES WITH SUCH DEEP MIXING LAYERS
WOULD EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS GUST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MAYBE THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY AS IT IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM
NORTHERLY TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ALSO WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT
DO NOT USUALLY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS. KEPT THE FCST
MAINLY DRY WITH SOME AFTN CHC'S NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS ECMWF COME TO FRUITION IT WILL BE MUCH TO DRY FOR
CONVECTION. ALSO IF THE SOUNDING ARE EVEN CLOSE TO AS DRY AS THEY
INDICATE...TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENT GRIDS ADVERTISE.
THIS SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE EVIDENT AFTER WE SEE WHAT KIND OF DEW
POINTS THE FRONT ACTUALLY YIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENTLY FUEL MOISTURE IS THE ONLY PARAMETER KEEPING US IN AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS RH'S NEARING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT
RH'S COULD BE LOWER THAN FCST IF SOME OF THE MODELS VERIFY. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS AND THEIR POOR PERFORMANCE THIS SEASON
I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO MUCH LOWER WITH RH AT THIS TIME. ON
THE PLUS SIDE WE SHOULD NOT REACH WIND CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND SO THE
WORST I WOULD EXPECT IS AN...ELEVATED RISK...DUE TO RH AND FUEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ089>094.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>088.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ110>112-114.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>109.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>013-
     015>017-020>022.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ014-
     018-019.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201800-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. REFER TO THE
PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST...AND THIS INCLUDES A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. SHOULD A SEVERE
STORM OCCUR...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS SHOULD THEIR ACTIVATION
BECOME NEEDED.

JP