Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Paducah, KY

585 
WWUS53 KPAH 090007
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
707 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

KYC055-139-090016-
/O.EXP.KPAH.SV.W.0281.000000T0000Z-120709T0015Z/
LIVINGSTON KY-CRITTENDEN KY-
707 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CRITTENDEN AND EAST
CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM
CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA...HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL OCCURRING IN THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3716 8829 3728 8835 3742 8797 3731 8793
      3724 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 256DEG 12KT 3722 8820

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

WITH MOST OBS SITES AT THEIR HIGHS AS OF 19Z WILL LET THE
ADVISORY GO TIL EXPIRATION AT 23Z.

THE UPPER HIGH IS NOT QUITE DONE WITH US YET. CONVECTION IS
CONVENIENTLY FORMING MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA ALL
QUADS...NICE RING OF FIRE. WOULD EXPECT THE CONVECTION IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO BUILD WEST OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE I-64 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH WELL INTO THE
EVENING.

HOWEVER...ONCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS PLAYED OUT BY LATE
EVENING...CANNOT FIND A COHERENT FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE OR
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY GENERATED QPF IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL TAPER
50-60 POPS THIS EVENING DOWN TO AROUND 40 AREAWIDE AFTER 06Z JUST
TO BE SAFE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS TODAY...AND DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA UNTIL NEAR 12Z MONDAY. WENT ON
THE SLOW/WEAK SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND GUT
FEELING IS THAT THE DRY...COOLER AIRMASS...THAT WE CURRENTLY SEE IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION AT LEAST
IN THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WOULD EXPECT TO SEE PRIMARILY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THE GFS IS NOW SLOWING
DOWN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS BOTH PERIODS...WITH THE EMPHASIS STILL IN THE SOUTH.
KEPT THE SMALL POPS ON THE TENNESSEE BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...DUE TO
THE SLOWER/WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT COULD BE A WET DAY OR TWO
OVER WEST KENTUCKY. OOPS JUST JINXED IT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THE CLOSED SFC TO 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON THE 12Z
SUNDAY MANDATORY LEVEL UPPER AIR CHARTS IS FORECAST BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO ELONGATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE
RETROGRADING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY.

THE WEAKNESS /GREATER INSTABILITY ALOFT/ AFFORDED BY THIS LOW WILL
AID IN THE SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH AT THE INFLECTION POINT ALONG
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FORCES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND A SHARPENING /NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED/ TROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE SHEAR ALOFT AND THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENNYRILE REGION...CLOSER TO THE CHRISTIAN...TODD...MUHLENBERG
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST /CURRENTLY
FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO...WHILE THE RIDGE IN THE CAROLINAS MOVES UP TO THE DELMARVA
REGION ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NEXT RESULT WILL BE TO SHIFT THE
RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE WEST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.

DURING THIS TRANSITIONAL PHASE AS THE RAIN CHANCES MOVE WESTWARD
WITH TIME NEXT WEEKEND...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR
CONDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. CURRENT PLANS ARE TO JUST HIGHLIGHT THIS
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

INSERTED A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF VCTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE ACCORDING TO THE GENERAL TIMELINE GIVEN IN THE UPDATE
SECTION. COULD NOT FIND ANY COHERENT FORCING FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ONCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTION DIES OFF...SO KEPT THE
TAFS DRY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. INSERTED A VFR -TSRA PROB30 AT ALL
SITES BEGINNING IN THE NORTH FIRST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING KPAH BY
16Z.

KEPT WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID SHOW A POST-FRONTAL
NORTHEAST WIND AT KEVV IN THE MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
319 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE OZARK FOOT HILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
EVENING. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WEST
KENTUCKY...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SCATTERED STORMS MAY LINGER OVER WEST KENTUCKY TUESDAY...AND ALONG
THE TENNESSEE BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER
THE PENNYRILE AND PURCHASE AREAS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR INTO THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

KYZ016-021-090000-
HOPKINS KY-MUHLENBERG KY-
613 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOPKINS COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 611 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MORTONS GAP...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF
MADISONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREENVILLE...MORTONS GAP...GRAHAM...WEIR...POWDERLY AND WHITE
  PLAINS.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

MY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ILZ090-094-KYZ005-007-010-090000-
CRITTENDEN KY-LIVINGSTON KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-POPE IL-
618 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN POPE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND CRITTENDEN...
CENTRAL MCCRACKEN AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

AT 615 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARION KENTUCKY TO
BROOKPORT ILLINOIS. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HAMLETSBURG AND SMITHLAND.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             RICHLAND                37.28N 87.59W
07/08/2012  E1.75 INCH       HOPKINS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             RICHLAND                37.28N 87.59W
07/08/2012  E1.75 INCH       HOPKINS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EARLINGTON              37.27N 87.52W
07/08/2012                   HOPKINS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN

&&

DLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
637 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ILZ092-MOZ111-090015-
ALEXANDER IL-SCOTT MO-
637 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ALEXANDER COUNTY IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 633 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF TAMMS...OR 8 MILES EAST OF SCOTT
CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  THEBES AND COMMERCE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

SMITH