Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Paducah, KY

979 
WWUS53 KPAH 032101
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
401 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

ILC069-KYC055-032111-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0257.000000T0000Z-120703T2115Z/
HARDIN IL-CRITTENDEN KY-
401 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND NORTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3744 8797 3733 8819 3753 8833 3759 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 309DEG 10KT 3748 8815

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

CONVECTION FIRING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO IL ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS CROWLEYS RIDGE. THEREFORE..NEED TO BRING
SCATTERED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAIN
FORCING NOW WILL LIKELY BE RANDOM O.B. INTERACTIONS WHERE
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FORMED...AND ALSO FARTHER NORTH ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 WHERE E-W AXIS OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG CAPES LIE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

UPDATED THE AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LIKE MONDAY...CAPES HAVE
BOUNCED BACK INTO THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE...THO THE BULK SHEAR
IS NIL. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER WINDOW
OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS HERE AND THERE IN THE MENTIONED AREAS FROM
AFTERNOON TIL NEAR SUNSET.

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ALSO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

PLEASE SEE ABOVE UPDATE SECTION FOR DISCUSSION LEADING INTO
TONIGHT. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT..WE DO NOT HAVE THE H50 TROF LINGERING
AROUND TO HELP MAINTAIN MUCH CONVECTION AFTER LOSING THE HEATING OF
THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL RAMP DOWN POPS CONSIDERABLY AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES.

THEREAFTER...WE TURN THE HEAT BACK UP WITH AVENGEANCE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH RESUMES
CONTROL OVER THE MIDWEST. MOST LOCATIONS WILL START ANOTHER RUN
OF 100 PLUS DEGREE AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY...LASTING MOSTLY LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS SAT.

THE HOTTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THU/FRI AS H85 TEMPS JUMP BACK UP
INTO THE MID 20S C. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL LIE WITH WHAT THE DEW
POINTS DO IN THE AFTERNOONS. MET/MAV MOS SUGGESTS MORE HUMIDITY
THAN IN THE PAST HEAT WAVE. HOWEVER...NAM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUGGEST A MIX DOWN OF DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PM
HOURS. THIS WOULD KEEP HEAT INDICIES CLOSER TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

WHAT WORRIES ME A BIT IS THAT EVEN WHERE DECENT MIXING HAS
OCCURRED TODAY...SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 65 TO 70
RANGE. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOOKING DOWN INTO TN AND AL /WHICH MAY
END UP AS OUR SOURCE REGION ONCE THE H50 HIGH RETROGRADES NW/ AFTN
DEW PINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE. WHICH DEW POINTS WE
END UP WITH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE KEEP HI VALUES IN THE 103
TO 106 RANGE..OR SOME LOCATIONS SOAR INTO THE 100 TO 115 RANGE.
EITHER WAY...IT IS GOING TO STAY DARN HOT THROUGH SAT...AND WILL
NOW EXTEND THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LOOK FOR LITTLE TO NO RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DROUGHT WILL
WORSEN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FRI AND SAT...THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BE BACK IN FORCE...AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MORE
SLACK THAN IT WAS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THUS...DESPITE SOME PCPN
INDICATED BY SEVERAL MODELS...THE BELIEF IS THAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY AND HOT. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXTEND INTO SAT...BASED
ON THE LENGTH OF TIME THAT HEAT INDICES ARE BETWEEN 102 AND 106.

BY SUNDAY...THE DOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BE
SUPPRESSED BY MID LEVEL NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS IN THE ERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS/GEM DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE FASTER WITH THE
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PAH FCST AREA THAN THE ECMWF. THUS...A
LIMITED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MON...THE GFS DEPICTED A SFC WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION MORE THAN 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF/S
DEPICTION. TO ACCOMMODATE FOR THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...MON/TUE WE
WENT WITH BLENDED POPS...WHICH RAMPED UP THROUGH TUE. FOR NOW...OUR
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE WIND SHIFT/FROPA EARLY ON TUE. WE ATTEMPTED
TO FORECAST TEMPS THAT MADE SENSE WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY MON...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S BY
TUE...WITH A CORRESPONDING DROP IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

MAIN SITE PRONE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE KCGI
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BE PREPARED FOR ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 TO 40 KTS...AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL IF STRONG
STORMS FORM. BELIEVE RIGHT NOW IS THAT MOST OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL STAY WEST OF KEVV AND NORTH OF KPAH...THO ISOLATED
BRIEF CELLS CANNOT BE RULE OUT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...MEFFERT
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....DB
AVIATION...MEFFERT/CW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
118 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
118 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...SPREADING MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO NEAR THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DIME TO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

IN ADDITION...AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE WARNING PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

FINALLY...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE. NUMEROUS BURN BANS ARE IN PLACE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE WARNING
PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW...AND COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THUS NO BONAFIDE RELIEF IS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO OUR EXISTING EXTREME DROUGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.