Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
322 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

TSTMS ERUPTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IL AND ADJACENT
SERN MO ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SFC TROF. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO BEING ASSISTED BY A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL SHRTWV MOVING BY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. HOT SFC TEMPS AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG CAPES EVIDENT. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER OVER SWRN IND INTO THE EVENING.

THE NAM MODEL SEEMED TO PREDICT THE LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION
PRETTY WELL. ITS MOS TEMPS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL TOO.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/18Z NAM IS PREDICTING ANOTHER FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION
EARLY ON MON IN NRN PARTS OF THE AREA. OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT NECESSARILY SHOW THIS. IT WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY TO HAVE DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION MORE TOWARD THE PEAK HEAT OF THE DAY ON MON...BUT
MOSTLY IN THE NERN QUADRANT...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AND
CLOSER TO THE FASTER FLOW ALOFT. STILL...THE PROBABILITY OF
GETTING WET AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE QUITE SMALL.

TUE...THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN CONUS WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A SHRTWV IN THE NRN STREAM FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST...CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. STILL...POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR
NOW...DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST INTO TUE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES TO THE EAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BY
TUE...THUS THERE ARE NO PLANS ATTM TO EXTEND THE CURRENT
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING BEYOND MON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IN THE LONG TERM...GIVEN ITS
PERSISTENCE WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AND BEST
MOISTURE...MAINLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN HOT AND AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER EAST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT
CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. IF THERE WERE TO
BE ANY ACTIVITY...IT WOULD LIKELY BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA...BASED ON WHERE THE ECMWF PLACES A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE HEAT...IT IS
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. PROBS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TAF SITES
AT THIS TIME. A WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA MAY RESULT IN
VARIABLE WINDS. SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KTS...LIGHT TONIGHT.
AS FAR AS SKY CONDITION...WILL HAVE A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...CN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
223 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-020815-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
223 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
REFER TO THE WARNING PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
NUMEROUS BURN BANS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY. A FEW STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. MOVEMENT WILL BE VERY SLOWLY EAST
5 TO 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY. REFER TO THE WARNING PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE CHANCE
IS VERY LOW...AND COVERAGE WOULD BE RATHER LIMITED SHOULD ACTIVITY
DEVELOP. THUS NO RELIEF IS EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO OUR EXISTING
EXTREME DROUGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             BURFORDVILLE            37.37N 89.80W
07/01/2012  E1.75 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             CREAL SPRINGS           37.62N 88.84W
07/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             PERRYVILLE              37.73N 89.87W
07/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       PERRY              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S JUNCTION            37.69N 88.24W
07/01/2012  M4.00 INCH       GALLATIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED BY RAIN GAGE 1.75 MILES SOUTH OF JUNCTION.

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             HERALD                  37.97N 88.17W
07/01/2012  E0.75 INCH       WHITE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             1 W JACKSON             37.38N 89.67W
07/01/2012  E1.50 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT WAS FROM JUST WEST OF JACKSON ON HWY 72. HAIL WAS
            MOSTLY DIMES BUT A FEW WERE WALNUT SIZE.

&&

CW