Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
957 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

MINOR UPDATE TO GRID/TEXT/TABULAR FORECAST PRODUCTS WAS MADE TO
ADD AN ADDITIONAL MENTION OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO MORNING PORTION OF TODAYS FORECAST. DURING THE LAST
HOUR...FOCUSED VORTICITY WITH LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN
LEADING TO ENHANCED TURNING PRODUCING MORE PRONOUNCED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MODERATE SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. THE MAIN LIMITATION FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF THIS
STORM INTENSITY EARLY ON WILL BE CLOUD COVER...INHIBITING SURFACE-
BASED PARCEL LIFT. ENHANCED SHEAR AND THERMAL PROFILES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE FOR POORER INSOLATION...SO
ANTICIPATE GREATER COVERAGE OVER SERN IL/SWRN IN/WRN KY LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

LARGE AND DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ONE SUCH
BAND OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY OR REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MISSOURI TODAY...PASSING NEAR KSTL
THIS EVENING. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING. AT LEAST A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL OVERSPREADS THE REGION...CAPES ARE FORECAST
TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. ONE OR MORE BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ARCING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS AFTERNOON. WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS WILL BE QUITE LOW...AVERAGING BETWEEN 7 AND 8K FEET. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME PROLIFIC HAIL PRODUCERS...AND HAIL WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH DEEP
LAYER /0 TO 6 KM/ SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
/LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR/ MARKED BY THE CONVECTION NOW OVER THE
OZARKS AT 08Z.

INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. LOWS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...BUT MAINTAINED MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVORED THE COOLER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF
CLEAR SKY AND WARMER TEMPS...GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH
THE WARMUP CONSIDERING THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STILL BE WEST OF US.
GENERALLY STAYED AT OR BELOW THE COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM / SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR TWO SUNNY AND
PLEASANT DAYS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS EACH DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION ALONG A FRONT TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING...AND SHIFT IT EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
ECMWF HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS IN GENERATING WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
CAP...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
DEVELOPMENT COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF CARVING
OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES
THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALLOWS MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE END RESULT OF THE LATEST ECMWF IS A DRY END
TO THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS THE FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THEN BEGINS TO LIFT IT BACK ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION.

PUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION GAINS MOMENTUM. THE ECMWF WOULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME COOLING
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN.
MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER SE MISSOURI AT 11Z WILL SWING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KPAH/KCGI THIS MORNING. THIS BAND MAY WEAKEN OR EVEN
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...BUT DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE
REGENERATION OF A LINE OF STORMS BY MIDDAY. KEVV/KOWB AREA WILL
LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS BY 18Z OR SO. THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL
VERY DIFFICULT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STORMS OCCURRING IN THE
16Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS LIFT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
427 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-240930-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
427 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ONE OR MORE LINES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES EAST OF OUR REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY. ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MY/DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1057 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 AM     HAIL             JACKSON                 37.38N 89.65W
03/23/2012  E0.25 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

K SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1102 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HAIL             1 S DELTA               37.18N 89.74W
03/23/2012  M0.75 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

K SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1105 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     HAIL             3 W JACKSON             37.38N 89.71W
03/23/2012  M0.75 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

K SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1107 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     HAIL             JACKSON                 37.38N 89.65W
03/23/2012  M1.75 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED 50 MPH.

&&

K SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1111 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

ILZ089-090-094-231700-
JOHNSON IL-MASSAC IL-POPE IL-
1111 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN POPE...NORTHERN MASSAC
AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL NOON
CDT...

AT 1109 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW COLUMBIA...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF
METROPOLIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DIXON SPRINGS AND EDDYVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1113 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     HAIL             JACKSON                 37.38N 89.65W
03/23/2012  M2.50 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JAYSONW