Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Paducah, KY

383 
WWUS53 KPAH 172052
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
352 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

ILC193-INC129-172115-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-120317T2115Z/
WHITE IL-POSEY IN-
352 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN POSEY COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW
HARMONY...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

AT 332 PM...QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN NEW HARMONY...WHICH 
WAS RELAYED TO THE NWS BY LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS.

LAT...LON 3821 8780 3820 8780 3820 8769 3800 8785
      3811 8808 3823 8802 3823 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 204DEG 21KT 3816 8789
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

SHORT TERM WE SEE AN SPC SWODY1 SLGT RISK FOR US DURING THE
PM/EVENING HOURS...AS THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE VORT LIFTING
ACROSS MO AND SOME OF THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SURFACE
BASED AND CARRYING A SLGT RISK SVR. NEGATING THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE
WANING CAPE IN THE LOWER ATMOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEY
HINT AT IT BEING MARGINAL/QUESTIONABLE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
CHC POP THRU EVENING TIL THIS WAVE LIFTS OUT. THE SLGT RISK SVR
SHOULD BE MAINLY HAIL EAST/WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT EXIST.
MAYBE WIND WITH HAIL IF IT BECOMES SURFACE BASED/STRONG ENOUGH (EAST
OR WEST). IT MAY EVEN CONDITION A SLGT CHANCE POP THRU THE EARLY
NIGHT HOURS. BY TOMORROW AM...RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN ALOFT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES EAST. THIS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRY THE COLUMN AND SUPRESS PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY...AND THEN HOLD THEM
OFF TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATELY WARM TEMPS/DEW POINTS
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS THE ORIENTATION AND IMPACT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN
BEHIND THE LEADING BAND OF CONVECTION.

THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM-WRF GUIDANCE SUITE APPEAR
TO BE HONING IN ON A SOLUTION FROM A SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
PERSPECTIVE FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE
PRONOUNCED MERIDIONAL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN...THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
ARE PREFERRED. WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY SHARP CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR
PRECIPITATION GENERATION. INITIAL FORECAST STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A MINIMUM
OF AN INCH OVER THE ENTIRE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH 1.3 TO 2.3
INCHES LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
EARLY FOR AN EXTENDED RANGE FLOODING CONCERNS...BUT AT THIS TIME
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAND FLOODING/FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

AFTER TODAY /SATURDAY/...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...CLOSELY
TIED TO DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE BALANCED
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THERMAL PROFILE AND SHEAR. THE LIMITING FACTORS
WILL LIKELY BE CLOUD COVER /LIMITING INSOLATION/ AND PERSISTENT
RAINFALL /STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER/.

WITH THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY BE THE SOME HAIL POTENTIAL...AND EVEN SOME COLD AIR FUNNEL
POTENTIAL GIVE THE COLDER CORE NATURE OF THIS LOW.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY REACH OR EXCEED CURRENT RECORDS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES EXPECTED IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR AGRICULTURAL CONCERN...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT MAY
BE WORTH MONITORING SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
LATE MARCH 25TH GOING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MARCH 26TH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

LOWER VFR SCT-BKN DECK ASSOCIATED WITH RIBBON OF THETA-E/WAA
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSMS FROM SEMO-SWKY..WHICH WE'VE INCLUDED IN VCTS
PTN TAFS THRU PM HOURS. MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WIHT
UPSTREAM VORT MAY MOVE IN TONIGHT...BUT WE'LL LEAVE ITS MENTION
OUT FOR NOW AND CARRY THE MID CLOUD DEBRIS THRU THEN. LIGHT SLYS
THRU THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD WILL EBB AND WANE DIURNALLY AND HAVE
THAT SO REFLECTED.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
801 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
428 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND INTO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA.

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AT THIS TIME WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REENTERS THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DURING THIS PERIOD...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY. LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY BECOME A CONCERN OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             SE EVANSVILLE           37.98N 87.54W
03/17/2012  E0.75 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF TO 3/4 INCH HAIL IN SE EVANSVILLE.

&&

DP